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Bills vs Seahawks prediction, keys to game that could light up the scoreboard

sal maiorana, rochester democrat and chronicle
·10 min read

Seattle’s Lumen Field is not a venue the Buffalo Bills have visited very often, and only a handful of players on the roster have ever played a game there, none while with the Bills.

It is widely regarded as one of the most hostile environments in the NFL, and typically gives the Seahawks a decided edge.

Sunday, in front of what will be the 176th consecutive sellout, the Bills will be dealing with Seattle’s infamous 12th man, and no one is more familiar than safety Taylor Rapp. He grew up in the Seattle area, played at the University of Washington, and after being drafted by the Rams, played several times as a visitor amidst the chaos in NFC West showdowns.

“I played a few times at Lumen, previously CenturyLink,” Rapp said. “So, the 12’s can get rocking in there. I got a lot of history playing right down the road at Husky Stadium, and there's no atmosphere like it. That's something that we look forward to. We love going into a hostile environment, that's what we live for.”

Sometimes you should be careful for what you wish for, but oddly, maybe not in this case because the Seahawks have not been great at home lately. When Pete Carroll took over as coach in 2010, through 2016, the Seahawks went 48-13 at home - one of the wins came against the Bills in 2016 - as they made the playoffs six of those seven years, played in two Super Bowls, won one and should have won the other.

But since the start of 2017, they are a middling 29-24, they had three-game home losing streaks in both 2021 and 2022, and heading into this matchup with the Bills, they have lost two straight there, one to the rival 49ers and one inexplicable face plant against the Giants.

Still, the Bills know how challenging this will be, especially for the offense in a place where the decibel level is nearly unmatched.

“You know what you're gonna kind of be walking into, in addition to that environment,” offensive coordinator Joe Brady said. “It's going to be a huge test for us. And I feel like we say it every week, but an elite defense that we're gonna have to be our best.”

Here’s my preview of the game:

The QB matchup: Josh Allen vs. Geno Smith

Quarterbacks Geno Smith and Josh Allen will face off against each other when the Buffalo Bills play the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024.
Quarterbacks Geno Smith and Josh Allen will face off against each other when the Buffalo Bills play the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024.

Allen went through some struggles in the losses to the Ravens and Texans, but he has been elite in the victories over the Jets and Titans as he has completed 40 of 58 passes for 538 yards with four TDs, a 9.8 yards per attempt average, and he still has not thrown an interception in 189 attempts.

He’ll be tested by a Seahawks pass defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in pressure rate at 40.4% and is ninth in sack percentage at 8%. New head coach Mike MacDonald was formerly the Ravens’ defensive coordinator and he has instilled many of his principles from Baltimore, essentially the same defense that throttled the Bills in Week 4.

“They’ve been a high-effort group,” Allen said when asked for an assessment. “They’ve been making plays so we’re going to have our hands full. The last couple teams we’ve played run very similar systems, kind of from the same tree. Obviously they have their own nuances and their own game plans, but in terms of a base game plan it’s very similar. Again, no easy task. It’s a tough defense.”

Smith has been one of the most surprising players in the NFL since he turned his career around in 2022 when he won the starting job and has been on a heater, looking like he could earn a third straight Pro Bowl invite. This was the dynamic player the Jets thought they were getting when they picked him in the second round of the 2013 draft out of West Virginia.

Smith leads the NFL in passing yards per game at 283.6, and he’s doing that behind somewhat spotty protection as he has been pressured on 36% of his dropbacks, 12th-most in the NFL. Former star cornerback and current Amazon NFL analyst Richard Sherman, who never played with Smith in Seattle, nonetheless is impressed and he said on social media earlier in the week, “They never give Geno enough credit. He is under the most duress all game and looks like a surgeon when kept clean.”

Buffalo Bills who should impact the game

▶ RB James Cook: The Bills had a tough time getting their run game going against a stout Titans front, but there could be an opportunity against a Seahawks run defense that ranks 28th at 5.0 yards per rush and has been susceptible to missed tackles. Cook had just 32 yards against Tennessee after missing the Jets game, and he’ll need to be much better because running well would certainly take some steam out of the crowd.

▶ WR Amari Cooper: He had a nice Bills debut with four catches for 66 yards and a TD, and now that he’s had more time on task with his teammates and the playbook, Cooper could be ready to shoulder more in the passing game. Seattle does a great job with simulated pressure and it can bring the heat so Allen may need to rely on hot reads to stay out of trouble and Cooper knows how to sit down in zones or get open quickly against man coverage.

▶ TE Dalton Kincaid: We’ve been waiting for the second-year player to make plays downfield and he had two big ones against the Titans. Cooper’s presence will help him because he should draw some coverage and Kincaid may find himself in more favorable matchups. I still say Kincaid can be the X-factor in the passing game, but he has to start making the best of his chances, especially now that his snap counts have risen sharply in recent weeks.

▶ LB Dorian Williams: He has started to find his way and is playing with more confidence and awareness, but there’s a chance that he won’t have Terrel Bernard next to him and that’s a problem. If Bernard’s ankle injury keeps him out and Baylon Spector has to play, the Seahawks will look to attack that second level of the defense the way the Ravens did in Week 4. Williams leads the team with 68 tackles and he also has a forced fumble and two recoveries.

▶ DE Greg Rousseau: He leads the Bills with 34 pressures and 11 came last week, and that’s what the Bills need from their best pass rusher. There are too many times when Rousseau seems to disappear, but when he’s at his best, he’s a difference maker. He rushed almost exclusively from the left side against the Titans, and if that’s the case again, he has a favorable matchup whether the Seahawks go with Steve Forysthe or rookie Mike Jerrell who started last week in Atlanta.

Seattle Seahawks who should impact the game

▶ RB Kenneth Walker III: The Seahawks have been an inconsistent running team which, in some ways, is why they have had to rely so much on Smith as a passer. But Walker, who rushed for 103 yards in the opener against Denver but then missed Weeks 2 and 3 with an injury, can be a load. Against a Bills defense that plays with only two LBs on the field and thus is almost always light in the box, partly why they are allowing 5.1 yard per rush which is fourth-worst in the league, Walker should find creases to hit.

▶ WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba: The availability of WR DK Metcalf remains up in the air, and if he can’t play, that’s a break for the Bills because he makes so many explosive plays. JSN leads Seattle with 37 catches, 18 of which have resulted in first downs, and will have a bigger role along with Tyler Lockett if Metcalf is out. Taron Johnson will see plenty of JSN, and that could be a big matchup in the slot, especially if Smith uses play-action because while he doesn’t do it often, he’s completing 71.1% of his passes when he does.

▶ RG Anthony Bradford: Seattle’s offensive line has struggled and Pro Football Focus had it 28th in its weekly offensive line rankings. Bradford has been a clear weak link, to the point where last week in Atlanta the Seahawks rotated Christian Haynes in for 15 snaps. It’s an area the Bills can exploit with its DT rotation of Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones and DeWayne Carter.

▶ DT Byron Murphy: The No. 16 overall pick in the 2024 draft missed three games with an injury and Seattle lost all three. With the 305-pound rookie in the middle of their line, the Seahawks are 4-0 including a domination of the Falcons last week in his return to action. In the games he was out, opponents averaged 5.4 yards per rush and scored 35.7 points per game; with him, it’s a full yard less and the point yield has been 14.3. Is that a coincidence?

▶ LB Ernest Jones: Well, the Bills should be quite familiar with the excellent inside LB because they just played against him last week when he made five tackles and broke up a pass for the Titans. Jones, who was just traded to Tennessee by the Rams before the season, is on the move again because the Titans are in sell mode and they traded him to Seattle and MacDonald anticipates that he will play. Along with fellow LB and ex-Bill Tyrel Dodson, the Seahawks now have two players with some pretty good intel about the Buffalo offense.

▶ CB Devon Witherspoon: The No. 5 overall pick in the 2023 draft earned a Pro Bowl invite as a rookie and he has continued to play well, though his catch percentage allowed this season is 74.3% after it was 57.4% last year. CBs Tariq Woolen and Tre Brown may be out again, so the Bills may try to go after someone like Nehemiah Pritchett and Josh Jobe if they’re on the field, far more favorable options than Witherspoon.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 30, Seahawks 24

There will be points scored in this game because both of these passing offenses can light it up if things are going well. Last week, Allen put up his biggest passing game of the year thanks to a dynamic second half where he got into pitch and catch mode with Cooper, Kincaid, Khalil Shakir, and Keon Coleman and those four combined for 15 receptions for 248 yards in the second half. But Seattle leads the NFL in passing, so this could very well be a shootout where last team with the ball wins. I like Allen and the Bills in that scenario.

Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Seahawks prediction, keys to NFL Week 8 game