Josh Allen has a reputation of being a loose cannon. His 2024 stats say otherwise.
ORCHARD PARK - There isn’t a football coach on the planet who hasn’t uttered this one phrase: When you win the turnover battle, you have a much better chance to win the game.
As old and tired a cliche as that is, here’s the thing: It’s true. Through the decades, teams that take the ball away more than they give it away have won anywhere from 70-80% of the time, and the Buffalo Bills are right in line through seven weeks of the 2024 season.
They have won the turnover battle five times and they won four, the only loss coming in Houston. They were even in turnovers in their victory over Arizona and their loss to Baltimore, and for the season they are an NFL-best plus-10 in turnover margin as they have just two lost fumbles while they’ve made seven interceptions and recovered five opponent fumbles.
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This has been a blossoming trend in Buffalo where in 2022 the Bills ranked 20th in turnover margin, improved to 10th last year, and now sit No. 1 as they head to Seattle Sunday to play the NFC West-leading Seahawks.
One of the biggest reasons for the vast improvement this year has been the ball security being exhibited this season by Josh Allen, formerly a loose cannon when it came to turnovers, particularly in 2023 when he threw a career-high 18 interceptions.
Josh Allen has thrown no interceptions in 2024
Allen has begun the season with seven straight games and 189 pass attempts without throwing an interception, the longest streaks of his career. Sure, there’s been some luck involved because according to Pro Football Focus, Allen has the fifth-most turnover-worthy plays in the league, plays defined as a pass put in harm’s way or fumbles. Of those 10 TWP’s, the only turnovers the Bills have had were lost fumbles by Allen in Week 1 against the Cardinals and Week 4 against the Ravens.
“Well, I think the defenses, whether it was last week or two weeks ago, they’ve dropped a couple, which helps,” Allen said of his no interception streak. “A couple of the (TWP’s) were late in game, desperation plays, but there’s certain times where that’s going to be necessary. You’re going to have to take some risks, you’re going to have to try to push the ball downfield and do whatever you can to help your team.
“But just making better decisions, understanding the game plan, knowing where my answers are and utilizing my legs when I need to. I think that comes with the coaching and Joe (Brady), the quarterback room that we have, just talking to those guys, relying on the information that they’re giving me and just going out there and the mindset of just trying to play smart and sound football and taking opportunities and shots when they’re there.”
No one appreciates this more than coach Sean McDermott who said, “It’s been huge, just becoming a great decision maker. He’s been very intentional about it and it’s important to him. He knows the value of playing clean football that way and protecting the house.”
Part of the reason for Allen’s cleanliness is that despite the 10 TWP’s, he’s playing less hero ball. He’s still using his legs to extend plays and waiting until the last second to make something happen, but he has been more willing to live for the next down if nothing comes available.
How has Josh Allen avoided turnovers?
“The job that Josh has done on being smart with the ball, throwing the ball away when he needs to, sliding when he needs to as well,” McDermott said. “His level of decision making has increased this season and been very important to our team, and the wins that we’ve had.”
Another reason why he has avoided interceptions is that he’s not forcing the ball into places he shouldn’t. For example, in the never-ending effort to make sure Stefon Diggs got his targets, and to a lesser extent Gabe Davis, that led to some of Allen’s misfires in 2023. This season, he has been much more judicious in his reads and in most cases the ball is going to the option that’s most readily available.
“Anytime you turn the ball over in the NFL, you put yourself at a disadvantage, right?” Brady said. “Even when there’s lulls on offense … when we might not be clicking all the way, as long as those drives are ending in a punt … ”
Meaning rather than a turnover, you kick the ball, flip the field position, and let the defense get the ball back to the offense.
“That lets us be able to regroup and not feel like, ‘oh, man, we got stopped because we turned the ball over,’ whether it was a fumble or an interception,” Brady said. “And so not playing scared, not playing conservative, but understanding the importance of, if we can just protect the football for 60 minutes, good things usually happen. And I’m pleased with how they’ve done it so far.”
Brady agreed with McDermott in that this season, Allen has made not turning the ball over his No. 1 priority behind only winning.
“I think it’s important to him, protecting the football,” Brady said. “Now anytime you don’t, you got to have some luck involved at the quarterback position, right? He’s had some that have been turnover-worthy plays. It’s the reality but that happens in the NFL, but he’s doing a really good job of being intentional about protecting the football and not playing scared or anything about that.”
Allen was more than willing to share the credit for his success, but also admitted that reducing his turnovers was a major emphasis for him coming into his seventh season.
“A lot of pride. I think that’s one of the things I wanted to clean up really the last couple years and to now go out there and do it,” he said. “It’s easier said than done. And, again, it takes some luck. You’re going to have balls that shouldn’t be intercepted that are intercepted, and you’re going to have balls that probably should be intercepted that aren’t. I’m not sitting back there not trying to throw interceptions; when you try not to, that’s when they typically happen. You just got to go out there and play football, trust your eyes, trust your feet.”
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Josh Allen stats in 2024 show he may no longer be a loose canon