Bills-Chiefs: What to look for — and what we can learn — in the latest Josh Allen-Patrick Mahomes battle
Allen and the Bills still haven't gotten over the playoff hump vs. Kansas City. How can they take a step toward doing so?
The premier quarterback rivalry of the new age will write another chapter this weekend as the Chiefs look to continue their undefeated season on the road with a trip to Buffalo. Including the playoffs, this will be the eighth matchup between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen since the start of the 2020 season.
There has been a clear trend between these teams when they play. The Bills own the Chiefs in the regular season with a 3-1 record in Allen vs. Mahomes matchups — however, the Chiefs are 3-0 against the Bills in the postseason. The frequency of games between these two teams, paired with having two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in their prime, has built a legitimate rivalry.
Stakes are always high when the Chiefs play the Bills and that remains true for the upcoming game on Sunday. Kansas City has nickel-and-dimed its way to a 9-0 record while the Bills have a commanding lead on the AFC East with an 8-2 mark. If the Bills pull this one off, they’ll have a path toward being the No. 1 seed in the AFC and skipping the first round of the playoffs. These are two of the entrenched titans in the NFL, and this game will be a good benchmark for learning what each of them is capable of in the postseason.
Both of these offenses are among the best in the league and they’ll both be playing against good, if a bit incomplete, defenses. The Chiefs have drawn concern and criticism for their lack of explosive offensive plays, but on a down-to-down basis, this is still one of the best offenses in the league. According to TruMedia, the Chiefs rank fifth in success rate and second in success rate on dropbacks. Their 2.39 points per drive is good for eighth in the league and they’re converting more than 50% of their third-down attempts. They’ve shifted gears and are now a more dink-and-dunk offense, but they’re still good.
The Bills aren’t exactly airing it out either this year, but they’ve been able to push the ball downfield more than the Chiefs have. In a world where Lamar Jackson wasn’t having one of the greatest seasons ever, Josh Allen would be the MVP favorite. He’s once again been incredible while carrying an Atlas-level workload for the offense with a host of young wide receivers. Both offenses are more consistently efficient than the defenses they’ll be facing, which could lead to fireworks.
How each defense performs against the elite quarterback on the other side of the field will be a crucial data point. The Bills' two losses this season have come at the hands of Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud. Kansas City is undefeated, but good offenses like the Falcons and Buccaneers moved the ball on them.
Allen said this week that he’s more concerned about getting over the Chiefs hurdle in the playoffs than the regular season, which makes sense given three of his five playoff exits have come at the hands of Mahomes and Kansas City. This team is capable of getting over that mountain, but they still have to do it when it comes down to crunch time. Sunday is the most important litmus test of the season for the Bills against their biggest rival, and it will allow them to know where they stand in their quest to finally reach the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era.
Game, set, match. This is what we watch this league for.
