Binge, Stream, Skip: Week 11 Fantasy Football
Game environment is the foundational starting point in making fantasy football lineup decisions. As such, I’m going to break down each game on the slate into three categories: Binge, Stream and Skip.
Games you want to “binge” are like the show you can’t miss; you’re watching as soon as it goes live and might just crush all the episodes in one weekend. These are the start-all-your-guys fantasy games and ones with season-defining storylines.
Games you want to “stream” are like the shows you certainly watch start to finish, but perhaps you’re finishing it over time instead of one shot. While these games might not feature a ton of “must-starts,” we can pick and choose our spots, and the teams are likely to matter in the NFL playoff picture.
Lastly, the games you want to “skip” are like the shows you’re leaning toward passing on, but you might catch an episode here and there (or might stick to reading recaps online to stay up with the culture). There will be a non-obvious player or two who stands out in these games, but overall, they aren’t the best environment for fantasy football.
Let’s dive into my Week 11 Fantasy Football Viewer’s Guide.
BINGE
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens and Steelers offenses have been some of the most enjoyable units to watch over the last month, for different reasons. The Ravens can sting you in so many ways, and they need it because their defense on the other side isn’t the same fearsome group we used to know. Pittsburgh’s offense is limited because Russell Wilson is a “touchdown to check-down” quarterback at this phase, but it works so well. Given Wilson’s still-live deep ball and the wide receivers at his disposal, the team can lean into this volatile identity.
All that said, there’s a part of me that can’t shake the feeling that so many Ravens-Steelers games just get dragged into the mud. It won’t shock me if this game, which looks like a prime high-scoring matchup for fantasy managers, somehow turns into a 17-14 affair.
The way to break that trend will be the deep shots on both sides of the ball. Those shots will be available when you look at the matchup on paper.
For Baltimore, while Rashod Bateman has been a big-play option on the perimeter, Zay Flowers is the one who comes in with the better schematical matchup. Flowers leads the team in targets against single-high coverage and the Steelers deploy those looks at the highest rate in the league, per Fantasy Points Data. He’s hit downfield shots against single-high with 3.36 yards per route run. The Ravens are intentional about moving Flowers around and getting him slot reps to hunt big plays against this coverage. They need him to come through on Sunday.
The Steelers will have the vertical shots set up to fly. Baltimore allows the most air yards in the league, as its secondary has been a liability against the deep ball. It’s not the type of defense we’re used to seeing from the Ravens but it’s the reality of where this unit in transition finds itself.
Since Week 7, George Pickens has been fully unleashed. He leads the team with a 90.5% route participation and 26.3% target share. Any sort of frostiness and lack of playing time issues are merely water under the bridge here in the Russell Wilson era. Pickens averages 15.8 air yards per target during this stretch, and his skill set as the ball-winning X-receiver is a natural fit for what Wilson likes to do. The matchup could not be more golden for Pickens and Wilson to connect on more downfield, difference-making plays.
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers
The Bengals are the best bad team in the NFL. At no point will the record reflect it, but this isn’t an offense any team is excited about facing in a given week.
Despite there being two cycles of “What’s up with Ja’Marr Chase?” talking points in fantasy circles, the Bengals wideout is the current NFL Triple Crown holder. He leads the league in catches, yards and touchdowns. Most of that is due to his two matchups with Baltimore.
Los Angeles presents a much tougher challenge. The Chargers play a ton of cover-four on the backend and don’t dedicate extra bodies to the run game. That makes them a tough unit to dunk on with vertical receptions. If Chase has a big night, it’ll come with short catches where he makes his yards after catch magic.
Cincinnati continues to find new personnel packages and ancillary players to contribute in the passing game. Since Zack Moss got hurt, Chase Brown has emerged as a critical factor in the aerial attack. Over the last two weeks, Brown has ranked No. 1 at the position of targets and has received 1st downs. His 0.7 aDOT is second most among backs with double-digit targets and is one of just eight with an end-zone target. With this type of usage, he’s a weekly top-15 option in fantasy, even under challenging matchups like this.
On the other side, the Chargers offense is clicking. They have multiple valuable players in the passing game to go along with star rookie Ladd McConkey. They even started to experiment with Justin Herbert as a designed rusher. I think this was the plan to squeeze a bit of ground game juice out of Herbert’s athleticism but the coaching staff has pulled back on it after a preseason injury. If that’s sticky, it’s big for Herbert’s weekly ceiling.
In the backfield, Gus Edwards' return did take some grinder carries away from J.K. Dobbins, but the latter was still on the field for 67% of the snaps. His overall expected fantasy points were in the same ballpark as Weeks 6 to 9, thanks to goal-line work. Given the matchup against Cincinnati, this is the week to try and get some of these Chargers players into your lineup.
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
A fabled matchup between two AFC rivals will write another chapter this week. Ironically, the significant determining factor for which offense gets the upper hand will be the play of the top receiver on each side. These two teams spent time remaking their wide receiver rooms this offseason and into the regular season and the returns will be crucial in this game.
The Chiefs' acquisition of DeAndre Hopkins was done for big games like this. Last week’s dud for Hopkins was predictable. Denver has a top perimeter corner in Patrick Surtain II who tracks outside receivers across the field. Even if the Chiefs get Hopkins some slot looks, he’s still a primary outside receiver, taking 63.7% of his snaps from the perimeter over the last two weeks. The Broncos play man coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the league, per Fantasy Points Data, and at this stage of his career, Hopkins struggles to get open against man more than zone. That was my finding while charting him for Reception Perception.
Because of this split in his coverage performance, Hopkins smashed against the Buccaneers in Week 9. The Bucs are on the other end of the coverage spectrum, playing zone at the highest rate. The Bills are the seventh-heaviest zone defense. Look for Hopkins to get peppered on in-breaking routes in the open middle of the field against Buffalo. He needs to have a big game for the Chiefs to win.
Despite all the players added over the last 365 days for Buffalo, Khalil Shakir has been their best pass-catcher this season. Amari Cooper may be back for this matchup but his availability doesn’t impact Shakir’s role as the slot receiver. Dalton Kincaid has been ruled out as well.
Shakir leads the team in targets and has seen his route participation jump in recent weeks. He’s a layup target who averages a beefy 8.5 yards after the catch per reception. That gig as the slot receiver will be critical in this game. The Chiefs smother perimeter receivers but give up over 91 yards per game to slot receivers, a top-five mark.
STREAM
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Most important Seahawks storyline: When I watch Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s film, all the way back to Ohio State to his second year in the NFL, I don’t see a reason he can’t continue to get the type of downfield targets we saw in Week 9. JSN carried a hefty 20.2 aDOT in the game before the bye and a mere 8.1 in the eight weeks prior. Obviously, with the return of DK Metcalf looking likely, whether JSN continues to get those looks is another question. That Week 9 game is the outlier for JSN but it could also be a “can’t put the genie back in the bottle” moment for Seattle’s coaching staff. Perhaps they went into the bye looking for ways to get him working on downfield combination routes with Metcalf. The Seahawks' passing game has been voluminous but not all that efficient. This can be a way to unlock a new ceiling but that’s just me theorizing.
Most important 49ers storyline: We got some clarity on the 49ers' wide receiver room in their first game from the bye. The new starters have more clarity from a deployment standpoint.
What does the future of this 49ers WR room look like next year and beyond, given the investments made in multiple players? Talked that out with @Nate_Tice on the latest film room episode. pic.twitter.com/Xw6d6oE0Bx
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 14, 2024
Jauan Jennings played excellent football in his first game as the starting X-receiver. He worked well in one-on-one situations, especially on the out-breaking routes. He looks like a keeper and if his level of usage from Week 10 is sticky, he can be a must-start player in fantasy against weaker secondaries like Seattle’s group. Rookie Ricky Pearsall played as the flanker and took some slot reps. He was used as a middle-of-the-field option and his instincts in the open field were on display. Pearsall is a natural fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense and while he won’t see the field as much as Jennings, he can also be a fantasy starter with the way San Francisco has jumped their pure dropback pass rate.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
Most important Texans storyline: The return of Nico Collins. The Texans offense lacks consistent separation and an answer for pressure. Collins may not fix everything for this team but … he’ll get pretty close. In the first five games of the season, he led the Texans in targets when C.J. Stroud was under pressure and averaged over 16 air yards per target. Collins was the answer against the rush and Stroud found him for vertical shots.
If we want to be quite honest about the way the Texans offense has operated the past two seasons, when Stroud and Collins aren’t creating heat together, the design of the unit leaves much to be desired. The Cowboys secondary has been an issue all season and a healthy Collins should tear through this unit. It’s all about how many holes he can patch in his first game back in action.
Most important Cowboys storyline: The Cowboys are on a rocketship toward “skip” territory. However, there are sadly still some players here we care about in fantasy football. We have to hope that this game is a sign that CeeDee Lamb is consolidating as much volume as possible in the passing game and Rico Dowdle in the ground game. For the former, Lamb was targeted on a whopping 37% of his routes last week in Cooper Rush’s first start. In the backfield, Mike McCarthy sounds like he’s ready to stop messing around with the 2017 Pro Bowl crew and play Dowdle as the clear RB1. This is the type of usage both players will need to keep their fantasy floors alive. Nothing will be pretty for Dallas at any point during the rest of this season, so these two guys will require as many touches as possible.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Most important Packers storyline: I’m anxiously awaiting to see what Matt LaFleur uncorks for the Packers offense coming out of the bye. Green Bay is one of my favorite attacks to watch right now.
Excited to see the Packers offense coming out of their bye week. This is one of my favorite offenses because they have so many dimensions and layers with the skill-position players.
Specifically, I enjoy the role and play of Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, and Tucker Kraft. pic.twitter.com/brDW2SYjHL— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 13, 2024
In the passing game, they’ve gotten significant volume and playing time to five different players between tight end Tucker Kraft and all four of those top receivers. It’s worth wondering if they spent the bye week narrowing roles and situational routes for any of the wideouts. The run game may carry even more intrigue. You can essentially split the Packers’ season into multiple portions between the banged-up Jordan Love moments, the games he’s been closer to healthy and the Malik Willis starts. I bet LaFleur would love to marry some of the exotic run concepts he unveiled in the Willis starts with the traditional offense. Having Love closer to full strength and able to go under center is necessary to accomplish this. I expect a heavy dose of Jacobs and the ground game off the bye.
Most important Bears storyline: The Bears fired Shane Waldron this week. By no means will this fix all that ails Chicago. However, they were running into “the definition of insanity” principle by just trying the same thing every week and expecting different results. They had to do something. Thomas Brown will take over and he comes from the same Rams’ tree Waldron once sprouted off. Waldron wasn’t running a passing game with many McVay-style concepts so maybe Brown will change a few wrinkles. It’s just well beyond too late to upend the entire attack. If anything, we may see Brown emphasize the run game, as his background comes from being a running backs coach. Taking some burden off of Caleb Williams’ shoulders doesn’t sound like too bad of an idea at this stage.
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
Most important Rams storyline: Matthew Stafford under pressure is becoming an issue. The Rams haven’t allowed an inordinate amount of pressure over the course of the season. The problem is that the plays are just about dead when there is additional heat on Stafford. Per Pro Football Focus, Stafford’s 47.1 passer rating is dead-last among 27 quarterbacks to take at least half of their team’s dropbacks. The Rams got several of their main starting offensive linemen back from injury last week but you could feel the lack of practice time this group has had together in those positions. Communication errors led to several moments that sunk the ship. The Patriots don’t have the most intimidating pass rush in the world, as their 20.2% pressure rate is a bottom-10 result league-wide. Then again, they rank two spots ahead of Miami, which just obliterated the Rams and Stafford. You can still play all your Rams mainstays in fantasy but if this continues to be a problem, it’ll shave off the ceiling of this attack.
Most important Patriots storyline: New England looks like they’re closing in on their main pass-catchers. Against all odds, Kayshon Boutte has seemingly emerged as the top NE wideout. Boutte has run a route on 95.7% of the dropbacks since Week 8 and has tied Hunter Henry with a team-high 19.8% target share. Boutte has been deployed as the vertical X-receiver with an 18.1 air yards per target mark. DeMario Douglas is tied for the team lead with 13 catches in this span and remains a short-area slot receiver. Tight end Austin Hooper has been more involved than most of the depth receivers, running a route on 40.5% of the dropbacks. None of these guys are stars but it looks like New England is starting to settle into the primary lineup. Rookie Ja’Lynn Polk finally got back into the rotation and caught a touchdown. He’s the only one who could change up the current playing time distribution.
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Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
Most important Falcons storyline: It bears watching every week which opposing wideout will draw a matchup with All-Pro man-coverage corner, Patrick Surtain II. Will Drake London get the treatment in Week 11? Per NFL pro, Patrick Surtain has lined up as an outside corner on 428 snaps this year and as the slot corner for just 29. Like many of these high-end shutdown corners, Surtain doesn’t travel into the slot and that allows some top wideouts to avoid this matchup. For a recent example, Zay Flowers stung the Broncos for 127 yards and two scores on five catches in Week 9. He lined up in the slot on 16 of 30 snaps, per PFF.
Few offenses have been as intentional about getting all of their pass-catchers some work out of the slot thanks to stacks, bunches and motion than the Falcons. Darnell Mooney has run 41.5% of his routes from the slot, Drake London 38.7%, Kyle Pitts 37.5% and Ray-Ray McCloud 46.7%. It’s worth noting that London has been targeted on 35.9% of his snaps from the slot, which leads the team by a significant margin. When their top receiver has been in the slot, he’s been peppered as the top read in the concept. All of these Atlanta pass-catchers will get their chances away from Surtain.
Most important Broncos storyline: Audric Estimé took a leap in the Broncos backfield in their last game. After weeks of Sean Payton's promises to get him more involved, the rookie finally led the team with 14 touches and a commanding lead in team rush attempt share (63.6%). The question is whether this is sticky and if Estimé can continue tightening his grip on the top spot to be a fantasy starter. Good luck with the first point.
Payton has notoriously had a wandering eye at the running back spot and just because Estimé led the way in Week 10 doesn’t indicate he’s the RB1 forever. On the second point, if Estimé does remain the led rusher, he will need more passing-down work in order to become a set-it-and-forget-it fantasy back. Javonte Williams still ran more routes than Estimé last week and Jaleel McLaughlin wasn’t totally phased out. The Broncos are the correct type of defense-first team that pairs well with a bruising back like Estimé. Getting more reps in the passing game just increases the margin for error.
Games to skip
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
One reason to maybe watch: I’m honest enough to admit I’m putting these two teams in the “skip” section because I strongly believe they both deserve a timeout. Does anyone who isn’t emotionally invested in either of these two teams — bless your heart — want to watch either of them that have inundated us with needless drama and media attention this season? Alas, it’s on the schedule. Of course, I want to see what Anthony Richardson looks like in his return to the lineup and if his “breather” away from the starting gig changes anything about his game. However, that can be accomplished on a rewatch.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
One reason to maybe watch: There’s probably a good chunk of the fantasy community that doesn't want to admit this, but Brian Thomas Jr. was mostly relying on big plays to accumulate fantasy points this season. That doesn’t necessarily have to be taken as disrespect; his profile was always one of a big-play wideout.
Thomas was ripping off vertical shot receptions and big run-after-catch plays in the first half of the season on the way to being the WR11 despite not seeing a 20% target share in his offense. How many of those plays will he get in games with Mac Jones under center? We just need to adjust expectations for the rookie wideout going forward. It could be especially tough sledding this week against a Lions defense that harasses quarterbacks and plays physical coverage on the outside.
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
One reason to maybe watch: We are on a little bit of a “Sam Darnold watch” after the Vikings starter had a poor statistical game against the woeful Jaguars defense. Darnold’s 48.2 passer rating was the lowest of the season, but his -2.4 EPA per dropback was just the third-lowest. So, at least, that can serve as a reminder that this wasn’t the first time we’ve seen bad Darnold this season. The reality is that Darnold is always going to be a volatile quarterback. He’s playing in the best situation of his career by far, but that doesn’t fundamentally change the tiger’s stripes. He will still be prone to these low moments. Vikings fans and fantasy players just have to hope we don’t enter an extended stretch of down games. This Titans defense has been a tougher unit to go against but well-constructed passing games have given them issues.
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
One reason to maybe watch: The Dolphins offense has not dominated the middle of the field in the passing game like they have in prior seasons.
Opposing defenses have cracked the code against Miami...
Tua Tagovalioa on all throws over the middle of the field (@FantasyPtsData):
2024
passer rating: 85.7 (27th-of-35 QB)
yards per attempt: 8.9 (16th)
fantasy points per drop back: 0.32 (33rd)
2023
rating: 132.1 (1st)
YPA:…— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 14, 2024
There are a number of things at play. The wide receivers aren’t playing as well as they did in 2022 and 2023, the offensive line is worse and I don’t think Mike McDaniel has done enough to alter the deployment of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle to account for defensive counterattacks. The designed De’Von Achane reps in the passing game have seemingly become the focus of the unit. That’s contributing to Miami feeling less dangerous downfield. Will any of these issues matter against the Raiders? Maybe not. If we don’t see the Dolphins offense shred Las Vegas, I’ll be concerned we just aren’t going to get there this year, at any point.
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
One reason to maybe watch: In the two games prior to Cleveland’s bye week, Cedric Tillman was one of the most utilized players at his position across the league. Tillman garnered 19 targets, 268 air yards (fifth-most among receivers) and a pair of end-zone targets. You can’t ask for much more. Tillman is a big receiver who can win at X both with some separation, contested-catch prowess and a subtle ability to earn yards after the catch. His tape has been as legit as the production. Coming off the bye, Tillman and the Browns will play a Saints defense that’s declined throughout the course of the season. In just the last month, they’ve allowed the seventh-most yards per target as a pass defense amid both coverage and tackling issues. This is not a stay-away matchup for any of these Browns' passing-game players, Tillman chief among them.
