Fantasy Football Panic Meter: Will DeAndre Hopkins trade make Patrick Mahomes startable again?
It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to witness and analyze a player's performance. But never fear — Dalton Del Don is here to gauge exactly how worried we should be — if at all.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes was drafted as the QB1 in many fantasy leagues, but he’s been the QB22 in points per game this season. He posted the worst NFL passer rating (44.4) of any game during his career Sunday, and it’s been more than a full calendar year since he finished a week better than QB9. Mahomes is somehow the current MVP favorite despite a 6:8 INT ratio and leading the league in interceptions.
Since the loss of Rashee Rice, Kansas City’s dropback rate over expectation sits at a lowly -5%, so the Chiefs have become one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. In fact, Kareem Hunt ranks first in touches per game (22.7). Volume will remain a problem, and Mahomes is also just the QB19 in fantasy points per dropback. His average intended air yards (5.4) ranks last out of 39 qualified QBs this season.
Rookie Xavier Worthy doesn’t appear ready to contribute as a route runner, so the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins, who’ll fill JuJu Smith-Schuster’s (hamstring) role. Hopkins is unquestionably an upgrade, but the 32-year-old is unlikely to have a significant impact on Mahomes’ fantasy value — though others see the move providing a bump.
Kansas City can continue winning with the help of a dominant defense and using the same formula moving forward, so Mahomes’ fantasy value needs to be reevaluated.
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Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Richardson continued to panic managers with erratic accuracy and a lack of fantasy scoring last week. In his defense, Richardson was facing a Miami defense allowing an NFL-low 154.5 passing yards per game and the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Managers likely don’t care about excuses, but Richardson has faced the #1, #2, #5 and #11 ranked defenses in QB fantasy points allowed since Week 1 (while Joe Flacco got a matchup versus the #32 ranked Jaguars).
AR goes on the road to face a Houston D yielding the second-fewest YPA (6.2) this week followed by a Brian Flores defense in Minnesota, but both the Texans and Vikings are bottom 12 in QB fantasy points allowed this season.
22 Yr Old Anthony Richardson, In His 9th Career Start, Had 129 Passing Yards vs The #1 Pass Defense In The #NFL (MIAMI) Sunday
Let’s See How Many Yards Other QBs Had vs The Dolphins This Season:
Lawrence - 162 yds
Josh Allen - 139 yds
Brissett - 160 yds
Levis - 25 yds pic.twitter.com/xYzMV1v1w6— Peyton2Luck™️ (@Peyton2L) October 21, 2024
Richardson encouragingly saw a season-high nine designed runs during his return last week, and he has the fourth-most rush attempts inside the five among all QBs while playing almost three fewer games than some. More rushing scores are coming.
And when judging his admittedly poor accuracy (it appears he legitimately has the yips on short and intermediate passes right now), note the ugly completion percentage comes with a 7.8 YPA that’s tied with Joe Burrow and Josh Allen for seventh-best in the league. Moreover, the difference between Richardson’s average intended air yards (12.2) and the QB with the second-most (Brock Purdy at 9.9) is as wide as #2 and #18, so context needs to be added. Richardson’s sack rate (3.8%) is the third lowest in the NFL, and he’s generated the second most rush yards over expectation and EPA (expected points added) per scramble.
AR is the QB13 in fantasy points per dropback (just behind Burrow and miles ahead of Mahomes and Stroud) despite the league’s toughest schedule and incredible inaccuracy that should regress (a healthy Josh Downs will help).
Richardson’s floor is low for multiple reasons, but his massive fantasy upside also remains, and it will be much easier to reach with a more favorable schedule. Don’t cut bait just yet.
C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
Stroud has been the QB18 in fantasy points per game this season, just barely ahead of Bo Nix (who’s averaging 178.0 passing yards and has five TD passes over seven games). Stroud’s expectations were high entering Year 2 and with Houston adding Stefon Diggs and a healthy Tank Dell, but the QB has been a major fantasy disappointment. Stroud is coming off the worst game of his career (-14.8 CPOE), when he was pressured at his highest rate ever and the most of any QB in any game this season.
It may or may not mean anything moving forward, but Stroud has dramatic splits over the first 22 games of his career. He’s gotten 8.7 YPA and averaged 311.1 passing yards with 21 TD passes at home, but he’s gotten 7.0 YPA and averaged 213.5 passing yards with just 12 TDs on the road. OC Bobby Slowik routinely calls runs on early downs, as Houston sports a -2% PROE (pass rate over expectation).
Stroud will surely perform better and could have a big game at home against the Colts this week. But he’ll continue to miss Nico Collins and will have to overcome a bad offensive line and shaky coaching. There’s added risk drafting early quarterbacks who don’t run, and Stroud has become the latest example.
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Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Smith-Njiga has been the WR49 in fantasy points per game this season despite seeing the ninth-most targets (55) in the league. The volume has been there for JSN, but his role continues to disappoint; he ranks #59 in air yards share (21.8%) and #78 in average target distance (7.8). Smith-Njigba has the 11th-worst yards per route run and ranks 61st in 1D/RR (first downs per route run). He’s technically “due” for touchdown regression, but some of that underperformance belongs to him. Only five WRs grade worse in ESPN's Open Score.
That said, Geno Smith leads the NFL in pass attempts and passing yards, and Seattle easily leads the league in WR fantasy usage. Moreover, DK Metcalf is week-to-week with a sprained MCL, so JSN will see increased opportunities; let’s hope that also includes more passes downfield.
Smith-Njigba panic gets a brief reprieve with Metcalf sidelined, but there’s real long-term concern about his upside.
DeVonta Smith, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Smith has been the WR25 in fantasy points per game, so he’s hardly been a bust. But he recorded negative receiving yards last week during a game without Dallas Goedert. Smith’s production historically spiked with Goedert off the field, and there’s no question he also benefitted from A.J. Brown’s absence earlier this season. Brown has dominated air yards share (62%) when both receivers have run routes together this year, with Smith’s falling to just 14%. The addition of Saquon Barkley has also taken away volume from Smith, as Philadelphia’s new back is top five in touches per game (20.7).
Smith will get his, but some panic is understandable given his smaller role in the offense.
