Olympic basketball predictions: Can anyone stop USA Basketball in men's knockout round?
The 2024 Paris Olympic men's basketball knockout round begins with the quarterfinals on Tuesday.
Eight teams will compete in the single-elimination tournament. The top overall seed is the United States, which is looking to win its fifth straight gold medal, but other teams such as Canada and Germany pose a threat.
"We're coming here to play the best talent and the best teams in the world," Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander said of his Canadian squad during an interview with NBC on Saturday. "(Team USA) is at the top of it, so of course it'd be fun (to face them)."
The United States earned an 86-72 win over Canada in a USA Basketball Showcase exhibition game in Las Vegas on July 10.
"We have a lot of talent, and we know that," Gilgeous-Alexander said. "We all want to win, so we're giving up whatever it takes to get to the final goal. ... As far as Canada, we'll be ready for whoever we see."
Here's how The Oklahoman's Justin Martinez and Joel Lorenzi see the tournament unfolding.
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2024 Paris Olympic basketball knockout round predictions
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Justin Martinez
Quarterfinals
Germany should begin the knockout round with a win over Greece, which doesn't have enough offensive production outside of Giannis Antetokounmpo. I have more trust in Germany's scoring duo of Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner, which has combined for an average of 41.4 points per game.
I'm then picking Serbia to outlast Australia, which looked underwhelming in group play despite being loaded with NBA talent such as Josh Giddey and Jock Landale. The latter won't be able to contain Serbia's Nikola Jokic, who continues to look like the best player in the world and is aided by a red-hot Bogdan Bogdanovic.
France's Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert will cause problems for the undersized Canadians, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and RJ Barrett are two proven scorers who can close out a game. Canada also has a pair of elite perimeter defenders in Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks.
The United States should then close out the quarterfinals with a comfortable win over Brazil, which has leaned on the scoring production of former NBA forward Bruno Caboclo. That won't be enough to keep up with Team USA and its wealth of star players.
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Semifinals
Germany 85, Canada 83
United States 101, Serbia 90
There isn’t a ton to separate Germany and Canada. Both teams have great guard play in Schroder and Gilgeous-Alexander. Both teams have great wings in Wagner and Barrett. Both teams have high-powered offenses.
But I’m giving a slight edge to Germany because I trust its bigs more. Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner will be the difference in this one as Germany advances to the gold-medal game.
The United States will then face Serbia for the second time after it earned a 110-84 win in group play. The main objective for Team USA will be to make life difficult for Jokic, and it has the weapons to do so.
Joel Embiid. Anthony Davis. Bam Adebayo. Team USA has no shortage of defensive-minded bigs, and that’ll help it defeat Serbia once again.
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Medal games
Bronze medal: Canada 86, Serbia 82
Gold medal: United States 97, Germany 91
Canada doesn't have much of an answer for Jokic, but it can take away his help. Dort and Brooks will make life difficult on the perimeter for Bogdanovic, who has shot a blistering 52.9% from deep in the Olympics.
If Bogdanovic gets neutralized, Serbia won't be able to keep on the scoreboard. That'll allow Team Canada to win and secure its first Olympic medal since 1936.
Finally, the United States will defeat Germany to win the gold medal. It'll throw defensive specialists such as Jrue Holiday and Derrick White at Schroder, and it'll overwhelm Germany on the glass with its group of All-Star bigs.
Germany is a formidable opponent that won the 2023 FIBA World Cup championship. But it won't be able to defeat a United States team with this much talent.
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Joel Lorenzi
Quarterfinals
Canada 85, France 78
Serbia 86, Australia 82
United States 107, Brazil 83
Germany 85, Greece 78
Canada has the guard play to push back on plenty of teams, led by MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who's as capable of flipping a defense with his dribble as anyone. Gilgeous-Alexander's skillset is what it is, a maddening onslaught of unpredictable counters and impossible advantages. But in these Paris games, he's been intentional in his playmaking and threatening off the ball alongside RJ Barrett. France's size is problematic, but Canada's guards and wings should make up for that.
Australia has been underwhelming relative to expectations. Serbia, led by the best player in the field, feels like a sneaky team. Anyone playing with Jokic sees their attributes raise, and it feels like Serbia's offense can push past Australia without any real answer to Jokic.
The conversation surrounding the United States has seriously transitioned (albeit prematurely) into whether this year's team is deeper than the Dream Team. The Americans have lineup versatility, with such talent that it can bench players like Jayson Tatum and Joel Embiid based on matchup, depth or a whim. Brazil feels like no match.
Antetokounmpo remains as mighty as anyone. The way his Greece teammates play off of him is noteworthy. Germany likely won't be exempt from his wrath. But the Germans have beaten better teams, and with Schroder and Wagner, they have a duo unlike any Greece harbors. Count me in for Germany.
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Semifinals
Canada 87, Germany 82
United States 104, Serbia 87
Canada's big man group is so underwhelming that Justin is betting on Mo Wagner and Daniel Theis. I get it. But I'm still rocking with Canada's crew of defenders to have a shot at slowing Wagner or Schroder down. Dillon Brooks, Lu Dort and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are exhausting to think about.
Gilgeous-Alexander will remain who he is. Barrett will still put pressure on the rim in transition and in spurts in this game. Nembhard is a sleeper of a variable in all these matchups, a wild power for any bench unit. Murray, if he ever delivers a good game, will alter things. Give me the Canadians.
The nature of these single-game elimination tournaments is that there should be fear. Fear of the big dog being upset, of the little guy rising in triumph. I just don't think the United States will tremble in any moment expect for a brief bit in the gold medal game. I haven't found a reason to think the trip there won't be a breeze.
Jokic will be the best player in the game, but USA runs too deep for answers.
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Medal games
Bronze medal: Serbia 83, Germany 80
Gold medal: United States 101, Canada 90
It's time to bet on Jokic. I think Serbia's brand of basketball is capable of medaling, and while Germany's range of teams it could beat might range wider, I think Jokic and friends can overthrow the Germans in the medal game.
It'll take a notable two-man game from Jokic and Bogdanovic, but it feels possible.
This is where the United States solidifies its legacy. This was the year it decided to stop sending B and C-list NBA studs to represent it internationally, instead sending the Avengers in hopes of stomping its way to a convincing gold medal. I think the prophecy is fulfilled.
As much of a problem as SGA and Canada's guards are, the USA's talent is unparalleled. It has world-class guard defenders, a caliber of which Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't seen in this tournament. It has world-class rim protectors, overkill considering what the Canadians are working with. Canada could come as close as anyone, though.
So here lies Canada's magical run, a satisfactory return to glory and a finish that Gilgeous-Alexander's maple forefathers could've never imagined. Just shy of a gold medal, but more than enough for Canada's proclamation as one of the best basketball nations in the world.
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This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Olympic basketball predictions for men's quarterfinals, 2024 champion
