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Reassessing Memphis football's path to College Football Playoff after 'painful' loss to Navy

Life comes at you fast in college football.

A week ago, Memphis football was flying high after what coach Ryan Silverfield called a "monumental" win over Florida State. The Tigers were ranked No. 23 in the US LBM Coaches Poll, had picked up national praise and seemed to have an inside track at a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Now, they are reeling. The Tigers (3-1, 0-1 American Athletic Conference) suffered what Silverfield called a "painful" 56-44 loss at Navy on Saturday, one where the Memphis defense that had been so dominant for the first three games of the season had no answers against quarterback Blake Horvath and the Navy offense.

"We knew we were going to face adversity at some point during the season, whether it was this week, or next week, or whatever the case may be," quarterback Seth Henigan said. "We expected adversity. Now we've just got to see how we respond and come together like I know we will."

Memphis' season isn't over, of course. But the path to an AAC title and a potential playoff berth narrowed considerably after the events on Saturday in Annapolis. So what does the rest of the season look like for the Tigers?

Memphis still has a likely shot at the AAC title

The loss to Navy means Memphis lost control of its own destiny. While an 11-1 record (7-1 conference) likely would be enough to get to the title game, there's a scenario where it isn't — and it starts with the Midshipmen. Navy has a relatively easy conference schedule until November, when the Midshipmen face South Florida and Tulane in back-to-back weeks.

But Navy now has the tiebreaker over Memphis, so that means a one-loss Midshipmen team will get in over the Tigers.

And then there's Army, which wasn't necessarily an AAC-title favorite earlier this season, either. But the Black Knights have an extremely easy schedule, with only one game (at home vs. UTSA on Nov. 30) against the teams picked to finish in the top four of the conference.

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If Army goes undefeated and Navy picks up only one loss, they'll make the conference title game over Memphis. At minimum, it seems likely that the Tigers will have to win out to have a shot at the AAC title game.

CFP race still far from over

"One game cannot define our season," Silverfield said after Saturday's loss.

Memphis has to win the AAC title to have a shot at the College Football Playoff. If the Tigers run the table and win the conference with a 12-1 record, would that be enough to make the playoff?

The answer is maybe. Once again, the Tigers lost control of their own destiny Saturday. UNLV is undefeated, with two road wins over Big 12 teams. If the Rebels go undefeated and win the Mountain West title, it's a wrap — they're heading to the playoff.

UNLV has to play Boise State, though, and the rest of the conference slate won't be a cakewalk. And there are still other undefeated Group of Five teams like Liberty and James Madison that could have a part to play. So it's still too early to say Memphis is out of it with eight games left.

"We have the talent," Henigan said. "We have the coaches. We just need to put it all together and have a one-week life span mentality."

Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Assessing Memphis football's path to CFP after loss to Navy