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No massive trade yet for the 49ers, so what if it never materializes?

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 03: Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after a touchdown with Brandon Aiyuk #11 during the third quarter in the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on December 03, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 03: Deebo Samuel #19 of the San Francisco 49ers celebrates after a touchdown with Brandon Aiyuk #11 during the third quarter in the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field on December 03, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)

The trade rumors surrounding San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk have kicked into overdrive.

It started July 16 when his trade request was first reported. He reported to training camp in Santa Clara though, lending some credence to the idea that he and the 49ers were moving closer on a long-term contract extension. Aiyuk was even on the practice field a few times, and gave the handshake/bro hug heard 'round the world.

With the preseason opener less than week away, Aiyuk still doesn't have a contract. The 49ers have opened the door to a trade and are in active discussions with multiple teams, including the Pittsburgh Steelers – a team Aiyuk would like to play for.

All the trade talks have given the appearance that it's the inevitable outcome to this saga.

That isn't necessarily the case.

It's clear the 49ers aren't in a hurry to trade Aiyuk. It's also clear that if they're going to move the All-Pro wide receiver in August that they'll need to get a return that at least helps them compete for a Super Bowl in 2024. Anything short of that would be a catastrophic failure.

Sorting through the pieces here makes it difficult to come up with a clear picture of an Aiyuk trade.

Let's start with the Patriots. They had the framework of a trade done with the 49ers and were ready to offer Aiyuk a ton of money. New England backed out of the deal, presumably because Aiyuk didn't want to play there.

The same could be said for Cleveland. They also have the framework of a deal in place with the 49ers. Aiyuk would need to agree to sign with the Browns to make that work. That he hasn't done so indicates he doesn't want to go there.

Then we get to the Steelers. If Pittsburgh gets the deal in place with the 49ers, they'd presumably already have a contract in place that Aiyuk is agreeable to. The hangup here might be the trade terms for the 49ers.

The Steelers roster makes it difficult to pick out a player they'd be willing to give up for Aiyuk. It's also difficult to pick out a player the 49ers would want that the Steelers would be willing to part with. Draft picks don't help the 49ers and their team-building ethos probably takes a trade centered around an offensive lineman off the table.

With Aiyuk under contract, the 49ers aren't just going to give him away.

All of that brings us back to the 49ers. They can afford to sit back and wait to see how the trade offers shake out. They can also see what the market for Aiyuk is like and adjust their offer to him accordingly. San Francisco may just let him choose between holding out or playing on his fifth year option. That's the ultimate leverage they have in all this.

It's not ideal for them to go into the year without Aiyuk lining up on the side opposite Deebo Samuel. However, that's true whether he's holding out or if he's traded. The 49ers could either trade him for pennies on the dollar and rule out their chances to keep him. They could also not trade him and keep the door open on him suiting up for them this season.

Aiyuk is under contract at a fully-guaranteed $14.2 million this season. There's some risk if he plays, but there's bigger risks if he doesn't given how the CBA treats in-season holdouts. He could conceivably play on his fifth-year option and try for a big payday next offseason. He could also wind up signing long-term with the 49ers.

This is an extremely tangled web, and while the trade rumors fly, there's still very much an outcome where Aiyuk is playing for the 49ers in 2024.

This article originally appeared on Niners Wire: No massive trade yet for the 49ers, so what if it never materializes?