FSU football game prediction: Dynamic Memphis will challenge Seminoles at Doak
The stakes are high for Florida State football on Saturday.
The Seminoles host Memphis following a bye week with kickoff slated for noon at Doak Campbell Stadium, and FSU needs a win to calm some nerves after a poor 0-2 start.
The Tigers come in 2-0, beating North Alabama 40-0 and Troy 38-17, and is ranked No. 25 in the US LBM Coaches Poll and received votes in the AP Poll.
The Tigers program is no stranger to Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell.
He spent four seasons as head coach at Memphis, with current Tigers head coach Ryan Silverfield on his staff. Silverfield took over for Norvell when he left in 2019, and he is 33-19 in that time.
This game had plenty of emotions around it in the preseason, but after the Seminoles' 0-2 start, the game has grown in importance and is almost a must-win for FSU in week three.
A key area the Seminoles need to improve is third downs, as the defense has allowed opposing teams to be 14-of-25 on conversions, and the FSU offense is just 8-of-26 on third-down conversions. Those numbers have made it hard for either side of the ball to gain any momentum.
Here is a look at the Memphis Tigers and the game prediction for Saturday afternoon.
How will the Seminoles defense handle the dynamic Tigers?
While typically an air-it-out type of offense that loves to take downfield shots, the Tigers have been more balanced to start the 2024 season.
The Tigers average 369.5 yards of total offense per game, utilizing shorter to mid-range passes with experienced quarterback Seth Henigan under center and a successful ground game in the first two weeks of the season.
Memphis average 135 rushing yards per game and 234.5 passing yards per game, with Henigan throwing three of the Tigers' 10 offensive scores.
Henigan is 40-of-62 this season and has thrown for 469 yards in the air and he isn't the most mobile, a stark difference from the Seminoles' first two opposing quarterbacks in Haynes King and Thomas Castellanos. His top two receivers are Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee, who lead the team in targets and yards.
The Tigers lost star running back Sutton Smith to an injury in week two, but Mario Anderson Jr. has stepped into the leading role, rushing for 125 yards and two touchdowns against Troy in week two.
Anderson will likely have high usage as Memphis looks to replicate the gameplan Georgia Tech and Boston College laid out when running the football against FSU.
This is the first time that FSU's secondary will truly be tested this season after two run-heavy displays from Georiga Tech and Boston College.
The secondary was expected to be a strength for the Seminoles this season with Azareye'h Thomas and Fentrell Cypress locking down the corner spots, and through two games they've shown well in limited action against the pass. With Memphis likely to throw the ball more, Thomas and Cypress will be challenged with keeping the Tigers quiet in the air.
If the Seminoles' defensive front is finally able to put it together and slow down the run, this game could be a confidence booster for a unit that was expected to be the strength of the team.
Joshua Farmer, Darrell Jackson, Marvin Jones Jr and Patrick Payton all need to show more, and this game could be a perfect coming-out party for what was once considered potentially one of the best defensive lines in the country.
However, if the slow and hesitant actions that plagued the first two games of the year are present again, the Seminoles' defense will be in for a long day.
Can DJ Uiagalelei, FSU's offense find its stride against Memphis
The biggest question mark heading into Saturday is what will FSU's offense look like.
FSU is averaging 232.5 passing yards per game and just 59.5 rushing yards per game, for a total offense average of 292 yards per game. After a run-first approach that produced an underwhelming 98 yards on 31 carries for two scores, the Seminoles elected to be a pass-first team against Boston College and abandoned the run game.
Throwing the ball 42 times against the Eagles, DJ Uiagalelei went 21-of-42 for 272 passing yards and one touchdown and interception. His performance was not well-received in Doak as boos and chants of "We want Brock" rung around the stadium as the Seminoles fans wanted backup Brock Glenn in the game.
Norvell stuck with Uiagalelei as the starter for Memphis, and now he has the challenge of navigating a versatile 3-3-5 - three defensive linemen, three linebackers and five defensive backs - defense from the Tigers. Expect more from the run game as Lawrance Toafili and Roydell Williams could open things up for the Seminoles.
Memphis's defense plays fast, quickly surrounding the ball carrier and creating pressure on the quarterback with blitzing linebackers like Elijah Herring. The Tennessee transfer is a leader of the Tigers' defense and a quick tackler in space.
Coverages can be difficult to read as the Tigers' defense hides its looks well, meaning Uiagalelei will have to be attentive to what the defense shows him in order to move the ball downfield and avoid turnovers.
Score prediction: Memphis 28, FSU 23
With a dynamic defense led by Herring the Tigers create problems for FSU and Uiagalelei as the Seminoles can't get back on track. This will be a better performance from the team as the defense sharpens up and the offense runs the ball better, however, the Tigers with Henigan and Anderson will exploit some of the issues defensively we saw in the first two FSU games of the season, allowing Memphis to escape with a close victory.
How to watch FSU football vs. Memphis
Date: Monday, Sept. 14
Time: Noon
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
TV: ESPN
FSU football 2024 schedule
Saturday, Aug. 24: vs. Georgia Tech* (Aer Lingus College Football Classic) Lost 24-21
Monday, Sept. 2: vs. Boston College* | 7:30 p.m. | ESPN (Fubo) Lost 28-13
Saturday, Sept. 7: Bye
Saturday, Sept. 21: vs. Cal*
Saturday, Sept. 28: at SMU*
Saturday, Oct. 5: vs. No. 14 Clemson*
Saturday, Oct. 12: Bye
Saturday, Oct. 26: at No. 19 Miami*
Saturday, Nov. 2: vs. North Carolina*
Saturday, Nov. 9: at No. 7 Notre Dame | 7:30 p.m. | NBC (Fubo, Peacock)
Saturday, Nov. 23: vs. Charleston Southern
Saturday, Nov. 30: vs. Florida
Saturday, Dec. 6: ACC championship game (Charlotte, N.C)
Liam Rooney covers Florida State athletics for the Tallahassee Democrat. Contact him via email at LRooney@gannett.com or on Twitter @__liamrooney
This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: FSU football vs Memphis game prediction: Tigers to challenge Seminoles
