2024 Fantasy Football: The Blueprint to a winning draft
The 2024 fantasy football regular season is nearly upon us. In a matter of days, millions of people will be done with drafting their teams and ready to begin their pursuit of fantasy glory.
If we’re being honest, millions of folks have already done just that.
For me, football is my year-round obsession. Not a day goes by that I don’t consider the sport and the potential range of outcomes for the upcoming season. I think about this 365 days so you don’t have to. I’m obsessed, so you get to enjoy your normal life. And I’m far from cursed in mine, to be fair.
Here, I’ll lay out my blueprint for 2024 fantasy football drafts — a compilation of my thoughts about the game after charting hundreds of wide receiver routes, watching endless film and running through my projections for all 32 teams. I’ll get some major assists along the way from the great folks I’m lucky to consider colleagues here at Yahoo. I’ll point you to great work to read or listen to later and, hopefully, challenge the way you think.
If you’re just now jumping back into football, welcome. If you’ve been keeping up with content all year, thank you for your support and for keeping the lights on. But the journey is just beginning for all of us. So let’s delay no further and unveil a blueprint to build your most successful season yet.
Good luck.
Big-picture thoughts for 2024
The more I've thought about fantasy football this year, the more I’m convinced it all starts at running back. How you approach the ever-evolving running back position will decide the rest of your team.
No pressure.
The first round of drafts has three industry consensus Tier 1 options and all three check the boxes we want for RB1 overall candidates.
| Player | Yds | RusY/G | Y/A | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 C. McCaffrey | 1,459 | 91.2 | 5.4 | 14 | 72 |
 B. Hall | 994 | 58.5 | 4.5 | 5 | 83 |
 B. Robinson | 976 | 57.4 | 4.6 | 4 | 38 |
Christian McCaffrey is the reigning RB1 overall and is the 1.01 favorite in most drafts. His 2023 season wasn’t his first dominant fantasy showing but rather a reminder of the unique skill set he presents as a fantasy back. No one has the same ceiling/floor combination as McCaffrey. The 49ers' back is currently dealing with a calf injury in camp but unless that lingers closer to Week 1, I doubt that budges his ADP from the top of the boards.
Breece Hall comes off the board fourth overall in Yahoo drafts. The third-year back finished last season as a top-five scorer at the position, but it wasn’t a smooth ride all the way through. He launched himself up the board with an electric final three games where he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, caught 23 of 27 targets for 150 yards and scored four touchdowns. We can expect those results more on the regular, as long as Aaron Rodgers is healthy and the Jets field a merely league-average offense.
Bijan Robinson is the third man in this trio of early Round 1 selections with an ADP of fifth overall. In what greedy fantasy managers labeled a “disappointing” rookie year, Robinson posted 1,463 yards from scrimmage and scored eight times. In a new-look offense directed by Zac Robinson off the Rams’ tree and with likely competent quarterback play under Kirk Cousins, Robinson has a chance to truly erupt in Year 2. I’ll take the over on his 12.6 rush attempts per game from last year and see him at least matching his 86 targets.
I don’t see a huge gap between Hall and Robinson but Andy Behrens and Dalton Del Don recently engaged in a debate on who should hold the title for RB2 if you’re having trouble picking between those two fantastic backs.
Jonathan Taylor is Yahoo's other Round 1 RB pick, even though that’s not the consensus across the industry. Jahmyr Gibbs was in the Round 1 mix before a hamstring injury, which doesn't seem serious, bumped him back to the second round. Even before Gibbs' injury, both of them profile as more early Round 2 picks to me, with one significant question mark in their profiles. For Gibbs, David Montgomery’s presence blocks him from a full workhorse role. In the case of Taylor, Anthony Richardson starting an entire season will put a cap on both his touchdown and target ceiling projections.
After that, there’s a cast of running backs with serious uncertainty in their outlooks going in Round 2 to 3. I’ll break down that group later on below, but you need to be prepared to take risks in this area. My antenna is raised at some of the wide receivers with Round 2-3 ADPs. Not that I think they’re bad individual bets, but they don’t have the resume typically associated with receivers that high. Wideouts have been pushed up in drafts this year because of the rising importance and depth of the position, and the lack of quality running back draft classes in recent years.
Once we enter the Round 4 to 7 range, we’re back in the typical running back dead zone. There’s a flawed mix of declining veterans, projected volume boosters and some uncertain youngsters. Unlike last year’s dead zone, which provided a few hits, this year’s has much more of the former two categories than the latter. That makes it a tricky place to pick players.
Andy Behrens made an impassioned plea to stop fading Alvin Kamara this offseason. It’s not an opinion I’m not fully endorsing, but it is a reminder of some of the quality names in this year’s dead zone. Unlike former stars like Joe Mixon and Aaron Jones, Kamara didn’t change teams and largely looks ticketed for his typical role.
For me, the guys to pick in this range are still the young backs we’ve seen offer up efficient play before.
James Cook at RB15 is a good target. Cook had a breakout season as the Bills transitioned to a power run team and ranked second in rushing EPA and success rate. Even better for fantasy, he was active in the passing game. Cook had a 2.4 aDOT in 2023, which led all players at the position with at least 50 targets. It may not seem like much, but even the best receiving running backs’ aDOTs are usually fewer than 1.0 or even into the negatives. Cook and Saquon Barkley are the only ones with an aDOT north of 2.0 in the last two years.
Rhamondre Stevenson also stands out as a strong option in the dead zone. He was an efficient rusher in 2022 and a strong pass-catcher. The Patriots offense should be more functional this year and his recent contract extension solidifies his place as the offensive centerpiece.
He doesn’t fit the youth-based mold, but David Montgomery has been a proactive target of mine in the dead zone. He didn’t have the same floor/ceiling combination once Jahmyr Gibbs was fully unleashed in the back half of the season but he still recorded double-digit carries in every game and was a goal-line threat. I’m fine taking him as an RB2 in certain builds because he should have standalone value and tremendous injury-based upside.
The Steelers offense will be more run-heavy than almost any other unit was last year. They succeeded when they leaned into that identity in 2023 and added reinforcements on the offensive line this offseason. It’s no coincidence that Najee Harris had his most efficient season from a yards per carry and success rate standpoint in a year when Jaylen Warren emerged and helped lighten his workload. Harris is someone I’ll take in certain team builds as a dead-zone back.
Once we get beyond the dead zone, I’d argue that there are far more interesting names available than usual. However, most of those are split-backfield candidates. You need to be okay with getting those picks wrong and whiffing on the situations. If injuries or chaos clear the deck for one back in Cincinnati, Tennessee, Washington or Denver, that guy will be a significant profit player. Should the split remain near even as current ADP projects, you probably won’t get a usable player.
Who cares?
Accept that most of your picks in this range aren’t working out anyway and you can be unburdened by failure and free to chase ceiling outcomes.
The rest of your draft will unfurl based on how you approach running back. Deciding which pockets of players you want to avoid and, primarily, which players you think are worth pursuing in risky pockets, will help you gain clarity on how you attack other positions. It’s an exercise in opportunity cost and overall roster construction, which we’ll continue to dive into throughout this piece.
Best fantasy ecosystems
If you know me, I am all about ecosystems. Fantasy football can be all about hammering players from the best ecosystems in the NFL. I always think back to the Peyton Manning Broncos teams circa 2013. Sometimes winning your fantasy league is as simple as hoarding as many players from those kinds of special offenses.
It’s obvious that great ecosystems equate to some of the most potent and efficient offenses in the NFL. They’re surrounded by a quality line, loaded with good skill position talent and stewarded by a high-end play-caller. But there’s more to it than that. In fantasy, it’s important we look at these highly concentrated offenses around the league.
The problem this year is, there are some ecosystems that I’m quite high on that don’t fit that category. We can’t just rule out receiver rooms that are crowded because we may be missing some serious profit. So let’s dive into some of my favorite ecosystems to draft from, ones that are both concentrated and spread out.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback on the planet coming off two consecutive Super Bowl titles. Now, he has an upgraded wide receiver corps behind an offensive line that still contains plenty of stalwarts. The Chiefs fell all the way to eighth in offensive DVOA last season but have a chance to be No. 1 this year after additions.
The wide receiver room is the difficult part of the ecosystem to parse out — we know who Mahomes, Travis Kelce and even Isiah Pacheco are at this point — as each member of that room is in a glob of players between WR30 and WR44. The longer the process has gone along the more I’ve gravitated toward Rashee Rice, who looks like he’ll avoid a 2024 suspension and will find more space cleared for him with Hollywood Brown (if healthy) and Xavier Worthy on the outside.
Miami Dolphins
Miami fields a great offense and the fantasy market knows it. Almost all of their players are going in the early rounds. Raheem Mostert is the lone exception, as 2023’s RB2 overall goes off the board as the RB22. I like plucking him up in certain team-builds.
Early in the offseason, I didn’t think I’d be cool with De’Von Achane’s aggressive ADP (26th overall) but Dalton Del Don has made convincing cases as to why he’s actually under-ranked. Achane is a uniquely explosive player in the league’s most outlier offense.
Philadelphia Eagles
I wrote about the Eagles earlier this offseason, as I find their offense beyond fascinating. What Kellen Moore has asked of his quarterbacks and the structure of his passing games cannot be any more different than the Eagles’ offenses under Jalen Hurts. As such, the Hurts-Moore marriage is one of the most interesting stories this season. It could be truly electric, enough to turn the tides of fantasy leagues and the NFC as a whole — or it could be a broken union.
Right now, I’m betting on the talent that permeates the roster continuing to shine while some smart player-efficiency boosting tweaks by Moore — pre-snap motion, high pace, etc. — elevate the outlook of stars like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. They also just traded for former first-round pick Jahan Dotson as a potential reclamation project.
Houston Texans
Any team that has a quarterback coming off such a dynamic rookie season as C.J. Stroud's makes their way onto this list. The scary part is that the Texans offense should be better this year.
I’ll dive into the receivers (much) later in this piece but adding Stefon Diggs to a room that already included Tank Dell and Nico Collins is enviable. That receiver trio is the best in the league right now, sending this unit to a different level.
The run game quietly should also see some level of improvement. Houston ranked 27th in rushing success rate last year in the first season of Bobby Slowik’s zone-heavy system. With the offensive line healthier and Joe Mixon added to the backfield, that part of the offense will be better. Mixon had a much better yards-per-carry mark on zone runs than gap concepts last season, per Fantasy Points Data, and was superior to any of Houston’s 2023 backs.
Detroit Lions
The Lions have one player with a Round 1 ADP, another going in Round 2 on Yahoo, the top-ranked tight end and a QB1 on their roster. We know their main-line players will be some of the best options at their respective position. The team retained offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and largely kept their stalwart offensive line intact. It’s one of the best ecosystems in the game.
The biggest player pivot point surrounding a member of this squad will be what you do with Jameson Williams. Frankly, I thought this conversation was going to be much more interesting a few months ago because I figured the relentless offseason praise from Dan Campbell and Williams' collegiate resume would drive up his ADP. That hasn’t happened, as he’s still the WR48 in Yahoo drafts.
I have my reservations about his target ceiling in that offense and his overall skill set as a full-field outside route runner. At that ADP, however, I don’t care too much. Take your shots.
Green Bay Packers
The Packers finished sixth in offensive DVOA last season despite Jordan Love working out the kinks in Year 1 as a starter while playing with a cast of rookie and second-year pass catchers. Now that this group is more grown up than ever, there’s no reason to expect anything but progression.
Getting the pass-catchers right is going to be a tough chore and I wrote about them all earlier this offseason. The reality is that this is likely to be a crowded room where no one alpha emerges. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t take our shots on some of these players with developing skill sets who will be available outside the top 60 overall picks.
Most of this optimism leads me back to Jordan Love as a quarterback pick. More on that in a later section.
Fast Start vs. Hot Finish
Whether analysts know it or want to admit it, best-ball brain has seeped into all of our content. The popularity and fun of the format have made it hard to transition the way we talk about that game into traditional redraft leagues.
There is a difference.
With everyone obsessed with taking down these massive best-ball contests, we’ve gotten overly obsessed with the end of the season. You’ll hear folks say “Weeks 15, 16, 17 … the ones that matter most for fantasy football” when analyzing individual player or team outlooks. That’s true in a sense, even for redraft-managed teams. Those are the playoffs and we all want to win those weeks to take the league championship. We know why they’re a focus but, you have to get there in the first place for them to matter at all. And that’s where I’m changing my tune a bit.
I have always been fine with drafting my teams with a flippant attitude to the start of the season but rather leaving myself open to late-year upside. I’m usually all about the hot finish. No one has caused me to reevaluate that stance more than Scott Pianowski. He wrote about the benefits of starting fast and has pushed our podcast listeners to draft to “win September.” The numbers are on his side.
During the 2022 fantasy season on Yahoo, 87.1% of teams that started 5-0 made their fantasy playoffs. Among 4-1 starters, 71.8% of teams advanced. Once you got to 3-2, it could go either way; 50% of teams made the playoffs.
Most of those results were mirrored last year but the advantage was even greater for the 5-0 squads in Yahoo public leagues. A whopping 90.9% of those teams made the playoffs. Almost 75% of 4-1 teams made it to the dance and just over half (50.6%) advanced.
It’s never been more apparent that life is just a lot easier if you’re riding hot coming into mid-October. You can start stacking your bench with late-season upside stashes like your favorite rookie receiver or a high-end backup running back when you don’t have to worry about chasing needs on waivers. You can get the best of both worlds with that hot start.
We all want to make it to the end of the season but you need to win early to clear the path. Just don’t get caught looking forward to the destination and forget to focus on simply merging onto the freeway.
Strategy thoughts
I’ll openly admit that the strategy portion of my fantasy analysis toolbox is the weakest in my garage. I like talking about players and teams and trying to be ahead of breakthroughs in play performance. I’d nominate any of Andy, Scott or Dalton to walk you through a strategy guide before me.
Another great resource for this is Dr. Renee Miller, who is a contributor here at Yahoo and a Neuroscientist at the University of Rochester. Her recent piece on cognitive bias in fantasy drafts is a must-read before your drafts, especially as we navigate the preseason waters. She was also on a recent episode of our podcast:
Super insightful show up for you heading into the weekend with @reneemiller01, a Neuroscientist who uses some of her work to explain how cognitive bias comes into play in fantasy football decision-making. Renee explains why this part of the football calendar can be when we’re… pic.twitter.com/s2i3uNeuJ3
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) August 2, 2024
One thing I think is valuable is being mindful of how you utilize rankings. For the love of god, just don’t draft off a numerical list. I almost always endorse using tiers to understand buckets of drafts and where cliffs and valleys exist at each position. But even tiers won’t bring you all the context you need.
[2024 Fantasy Draft Rankings: QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs | D/ST | Kickers]
I’ll share a little bit of how I view rankings in Course 402 of our “Fantasy University” here at Yahoo:
Rankings are an incomplete approximation of player preference on a yearly or weekly basis. They should be guided by the ranker's view of each player’s range of outcomes. That is an incredibly difficult, if not impossible, bit of substance to convey in a simple numerical list, which is why they’re not a complete picture.
Rankings are an appetizer. Actually, they’re more like the free bread they give you at the table; don’t fill up on it. If you’re not ordering more courses of content to consume, you’re not getting the best possible experience.
Traditional rankings are not going to provide you with [a way to determine a player’s ceiling vs. floor], which is a part of the reason I’m such a big advocate for tiered rankings. This helps you see where certain players are bucketed who have similar floor and ceiling combinations. Even though it is an imperfect demonstration, it helps show this concept. A player within a tier of WR15 to WR24 can realistically fall anywhere within that grouping and the ranker is telling you neither would be a big shock.
Moving on to another Fantasy University class (Course 302) on different strategies, Scott Pianowski wrote, “I've been saying for years that any fantasy football draft strategy can work if you pick the right player. Sadly, the converse is true — any wonderfully conceived fantasy strategy can collapse for several reasons.” Read the full piece and breakdown of strategies but that’s a great way to set the ground rules. There is no perfect strategy and no skeleton key in fantasy football. However, if you want a full rundown of potential draft-day plans of action, that’s your resource.
My last note on strategy is to hold on loosely. If you cling too tightly, you might lose control.
Whatever plan you come into your draft with, be prepared to toss that thing out the window if the board falls the wrong way. The best fantasy managers are flexible and ready to adapt. Every single draft is its own unique entity. So when the room is telling you that positional runs are taking place or your preferred positional strategy is no longer viable, make sure you listen.
How to view injuries
Even before we worked together at Yahoo, I thought Scott Pianowski’s in-season “anti-injury optimism” creed was one of the best fantasy football tenants around. It’s a lesson I’m still learning to this day.
The trickiest application of this creed is when it comes to carryover or prior-year injuries. It’s just objectively true that injuries can dampen a player’s performance in a season and, despite what the injury-report zealots want you to believe, a ton of maladies don’t get reported. You might be slamming a player’s performance all while he’s playing through or still recovering from a debilitating issue. And if you can’t let that prior season image of the player go, you could miss out on their rebound.
Again, it gets more difficult when we’re talking about carryover recoveries that might bleed into the regular season. My one piece of advice here is simply: don’t paint with a broad brush. Approach every situation as a unique occurrence. I spoke with Dr. Edwin Porras about the idea of “injury prone” as a faulty concept and how to approach some injury red-flag players in drafts this season.
Jonathon Brooks, Cooper Kupp, and Anthony Richardson are three of the guys we discussed in that show who might be worth taking the injury discount on this year.
You’ll have to survive a slow start to the season if you take Brooks, as the rookie is coming off a torn ACL, and may not play until Week 3. However, he has bell-cow-back potential and is currently going outside of the top 30 backs in Yahoo drafts. He could end up being worth the wait and has a high ceiling if the Panthers offense works itself out of the league’s basement.
If you're worried about Jonathon Brooks coming off a torn ACL from last November, there's another player who did the same thing in his rookie year...
Todd Gurley 👀@MattHarmon_BYB | @FBInjuryDoc pic.twitter.com/J3RoJFgQ7y— Yahoo Fantasy Sports (@YahooFantasy) July 17, 2024
Brooks was an explosive college player who should dominate touches early for Carolina. He won’t make sense for every team build and should be drafted as your RB3 but I see the upside in waiting on him. His path could be similar to Breece Hall’s from last year.
Kupp will be one of the bigger pivot points in drafts this season. I don’t see the veteran wideout returning to his 2021 form, even if he’s healthy, but he can easily outkick his WR15 Yahoo ADP. At the same time, if he misses games and endures a rocky season amid several maladies, you can’t be shocked based on how his 2022 and 2023 seasons played out.
Kupp is a declining player but one who can still be effective. At the mid-to-late WR2 range, I think he's worth the risk. However, his ADP has been on the rise in the second half of August, likely in part because teammate Puka Nacua is also notably dealing with a knee injury. Though Nacua is expected to be ready for Week 1, if he's at less than 100% to start the year, it could mean an uptick in targets for Kupp.
Richardson will be drafted aggressively this season and there is nothing you can do about it. If you want to cross him off your draft board as a top-six QB1 because of his injury history from last season, that’s fine. However, he led all quarterbacks in points per dropback last year and comes with a tremendous combination of ceiling and floor due to his rushing skill set. The passing game is also set up to fly with a strong wide receiver room led by Michael Pittman Jr., and Shane Steichen is a top player-caller. Richardson is not a consistently accurate quarterback or a finished product but he doesn’t need to be to have fantasy success.
If those parts of his game do develop, however, a lot of the Richardson doubt will age as poorly as the anti-Josh Allen takes before 2020.
High-level QB Elevator Pitch
The fantasy quarterback draft has changed. The market is too intelligent.
Back in 2019, you could draft Lamar Jackson in the 12th round despite it being painfully obvious that he was going to be a QB1 simply based on his rushing ability. That, combined with any level of passing success — which Jackson immediately reached with an NFL-high 9.0% touchdown rate — has the potential to break fantasy football. You can’t find players like that who are available late anymore.
For example, the player whose best approximation of that exact wager in 2024 is the aforementioned Richardson, who is currently the QB6 in drafts despite barely playing last year. Dalton Del Don made the case for Richardson reaching QB1 overall status in his range of outcomes this season. If you believe that’s viable, you will not be getting any discounts on ADP this year.
The market has also caught up to the fact that elite quarterbacks are once again difference-makers in fantasy. Just a few years ago, the hyper-efficient passers with rushing were still available at the depressed ADPs of their pocket-sloth brethren of days gone by. Now, if you want to gain the edge that Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson bring you, you need to be comfortable with the opportunity cost of surrendering a high-end WR2, running back option or an elite TE. There are still team builds where I’m comfortable doing this, but it’s not a “must” like it’s been the previous two years. That’s because there are two guys I like in the QB7-10 range … I’ll cover them in the “My Guys” section later on.
Despite all this, drafting a late-round quarterback can still be a viable approach. Andy Behrens recently dove into his favorite late-round selections to give you a guide.
High-level RB Elevator Pitch
I dove into a good chunk of how to approach running backs this year in the Big Picture section above but let’s expand further.
With running back, the best piece of advice to give for 2024 is to not be afraid of uncertainty. Frankly, if you fear uncertainty, you won’t be making any early picks at the position this year — which is a viable strategy but one I haven’t personally attempted with much vigor. Let’s just take a look at the running backs with Rounds 2 to 3 ADPs (13 to 36 overall) in Yahoo drafts to make this point.
To be clear: I want to draft some of these players. A handful of them are my primary targets in this range. This is merely an exercise to show the uncertainty of this position.
Saquon Barkley (13th ADP) will have a touchdown-ceiling problem sharing the backfield with Jalen Hurts sharing the backfield and saw his rushing success rate, yards per carry and explosive run rate metrics dip last year.
Derrick Henry (14th ADP) is one of my primary Round 2 running back targets because he’s a legendary player transferring to a great ecosystem. Yet, he’s a 30-year-old back with an intense career mileage count. Henry isn’t a normal back but this is typically the exact archetype of player to fade at the position.
Kyren Williams (17th ADP) will have to contend with Blake Corum being added to the backfield after wearing down under heavy workloads in 2024. There’s a non-zero-percent chance Corum looks good enough to turn this into a pseudo-committee.
Isiah Pacheco (19th ADP) has never consistently owned a passing-down role for the Kansas City Chiefs. The team mostly throws at the goal line under Patrick Mahomes, who led the league in completions inside the 10-yard line.
Travis Etienne (22nd ADP) averaged 3.7 yards per carry from Week 10 as the Jaguars were one of the worst run games in the NFL last season. They didn’t change much structurally or personnel-wise in the offseason and have spent another few months insisting they want to lighten his workload.
De’Von Achane (26th ADP) is without question one of the most explosive players in the league, but there’s almost no chance he becomes a true bell-cow back. He’ll need to rely on extreme efficiency and stay healthy to beat this draft slot.
Josh Jacobs (29th ADP) was not a plus starter in Las Vegas last year and now plays for a coach who emphasizes a committee approach. His multi-year contract is a bit of a farce so that isn’t the positive signal of commitment many believe.
High-level WR Elevator Pitch
We’re in a golden age of top wide receiver play in the NFL. There are so many top-end players at the position, which has pushed up the overall ADP of wideouts. It’s not uncommon to see seven to eight wide receivers come off the board in Round 1 of fantasy drafts this season. There are 11 wide receivers to 11 running backs inside the top 24 picks in Yahoo drafts right now.
My favorite team builds have mostly come when I manage to leave the first four rounds with at least two receivers who “start themselves,” in the words of Scott Pianowski. That means you’re going to have to skimp at either elite tight end or quarterback but you can make up ground at those positions later. You can talk yourself into the best-case outcomes for receivers down the draft board but those bets get thin quickly.
I’d say the cliff comes around WR32 in my rankings this year. Right before that range, there are still some solid bets, like George Pickens, Zay Flowers and Chris Godwin. After that, we get into some volatile territory.
| Player | Yds | Y/G | Tgt | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 G. Pickens | 1,140 | 67.1 | 106 | 63 | 5 |
 Z. Flowers | 858 | 53.6 | 108 | 77 | 5 |
 C. Godwin IR | 1,024 | 60.2 | 130 | 83 | 2 |
In that range, I typically want to take shots on second-year wide receivers and rookies who could exceed expectations. There are some underrated veterans in good spots like Calvin Ridley in the mid-rounds or Curtis Samuel (it seems like the turf toe injury might not cost him time) in the late rounds but for the most part, I’m opting for youth outside the top 32 at the position.
High-level TE Elevator Pitch
Tight end feels a bit different than in seasons past. After the emergence of youngsters like Sam LaPorta and Trey McBride, there are at least four appealing options in the first tier this season. My favorite pick of that first grouping is Mark Andrews, who strangely is a distant fourth in ADP (48th overall). Andrews should remain the top target in Baltimore, an offense that may take a step forward in Todd Monken’s second season at the helm.
Tier 2 is also a bit beefier than usual. Dalton Kincaid at 60th overall is a solid breakout bet and Kyle Pitts at 64th overall presents some bounceback potential. Beyond those players, reliable producers with lower ceilings like Evan Engram, David Njoku and Jake Ferguson are hanging around in the 75-95 range.
You can certainly look to take your shots on late-route tight ends this year. My favorite teams are the ones where I secure a player at this position earlier.
Rookies to know at QB
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Few things in life have become more boring than fantasy quarterback analysis. If you run at a high rate, you can moonwalk to a QB1 finish. Daniels was a prolific scrambler in college and will play in a high-pace offense, so he is my QB11 on the year.
Scramble rate on non-pressured dropbacks (college career)
Jayden Daniels: 9.4%
Justin Fields: 8.0%
Drake Maye: 7.0%
Will Levis: 4.4%
Bryce Young: 4.0%
Brock Purdy: 3.8%
Bo Nix: 3.5%
JJ McCarthy: 3.0%
Caleb Williams: 3.0%
CJ Stroud: 2.1%
Michael Penix Jr: 1.3%— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) January 18, 2024
He’ll still need to be an effective passer to reach a high-end QB ceiling, which is a much bigger question mark. He has the arm talent and wide receiver options to get it done. Yet, he’s still a rookie quarterback playing behind an offensive line with many questions.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
The Bears have set up Williams with what may well be the best supporting cast we’ve ever seen for a No. 1 overall pick: an excellent three-wide-receiver set. He’s a Day 1 starter on a team that finished 2023 strong and added plenty of offensive weaponry. I don’t have Williams ranked as a QB1 right now but if he adds some rushing juice, where he's shown flashes in the preseason, there’s a chance he can nip at the heels of the top 12.
Everyone else
Drake Maye will take over the starting job for New England sooner or later but he isn't likely to run out in Week 1. J.J. McCarthy would've been in that same boat, but he suffered an unfortunate season-ending injury.
Maye ran for almost 700 yards and scored seven times on the ground in 2022 at UNC. He has more rushing upside than you think.
Bo Nix was named the Broncos' starting QB, but the offensive personnel doesn’t excite me for a relevant fantasy campaign for the rookie.
Rookie to know at RB
Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
See the “How to view injuries” section above for more. I have Brooks ranked well ahead of his Yahoo ADP.
Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals led the NFL in explosive rushing rate last season and were second in EPA per rush behind the 49ers in the back half of the year. This is a fruitful rushing environment for Benson to land. The rookie may take some time to overtake James Conner and may never fully push the veteran to the side.
I actually think Conner is a good pick at ADP this year. However, we know Benson has significant contingent upside if Conner misses time.
Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Much like his fellow NFC West rookie rusher, Corum won’t open the season for the Rams as the starting running back, but he will play a key role. Kyren Williams was one of the most effective backs in the league when healthy last season and isn’t in danger of losing his job. The Rams either view Corum as a change of pace option to not overwork Williams with the heavy loads he wore down under in 2023 or an A-tier insurance policy. Corum won’t provide much standalone fantasy appeal but should be drafted based on that injury upside.
MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers
There’s a chance that Lloyd cracks the rotation in Green Bay if Matt LaFleur wants to run out a committee. His most likely 2024 role is as a strong backup option. That said, he's dealing with an injury suffered in the first preseason game.
Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills
He’s the ideal size complement to James Cook as the RB2 in Buffalo. Josh Allen monopolizes goal-line rush attempts, which likely caps Davis’ standalone appeal. He should still be on the late-round radar as a sleeper if something happens to Cook or if Davis forces a committee.
Rookies to know at WR
As you probably expected, I wrote a detailed breakdown of all the receivers drafted on the first two days in April and how they project for playing time in Year 1. I’d love you to read the piece, but I’ll give you the groupings here.
Day 1 Starters: Marvin Harrison Jr., Rome Odunze, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, Ja’Lynn Polk.
Have a few hurdles but will play significant roles: Xavier Legette, Adonai Mitchell, Roman Wilson, Malachi Corley, Luke McCaffrey.
Future bets: Ricky Pearsall, Jermaine Burton, Jalen McMillan
Rookies to know at TE
Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders weren’t the ideal landing spot for Bowers as they have a high-end target earner in Davante Adams and a strong WR2 option in Jakobi Meyers. Bowers can still push for 70-plus targets as the move tight end as a rookie, which should earn him a top-15 ranking at the position. There were just other spots available to help him push for a high ceiling.
Ben Sinnott, TE, Washington Commanders
Some of the best-ball hype of Sinnott this summer went a little far for my tastes. He’s still an intriguing athlete on a depth chart with some room to climb behind Zach Ertz, who's at the tail end of his career.
One deep rookie sleeper for the road
Javon Baker, WR, New England Patriots
I was stunned that Baker fell to Round 4 of the NFL Draft. I had him ranked around the area where his new teammate Ja’Lynn Polk came off the board. Baker stands out in the Patriots wide receiver room that’s lacking X-receiver candidates. We need the offense to outkick expectations for him to matter this year in fantasy but I can see him getting on the field earlier than imagined.
“My Guys”
I’m not going to waste your time in this section.
You don’t need me to tell you why a consensus first- or second-round fantasy pick is “my guy.” I’d love to tell you I’m all-in on Isiah Pacheco, extol the virtues of Garrett Wilson and his path to being the WR1 overall or why I’m buying Drake London at ADP. But I will go out on a bit more of a limb for you.
As such, some of these picks are going to miss. I don’t care; I’m not doing this to victory lap all over social media this season. I’m just offering up some options for you to target that may exceed expectations in the mid-to-late rounds.
I’ll give you some options at other positions before cracking open the Reception Perception notebook.
Non-WR Division
— The two quarterbacks I teased earlier who I’m clicking quite often once the Tier 1 and 2 players are off the board are Kyler Murray and Jordan Love, my QB7 and 8.
Murray offers the same rushing upside as guys like Richardson but is available at a draft-day discount of about a full round. I was shocked that Murray was as willing and able to take off last season while returning from a torn ACL, but he showed no hesitation. Murray ranked fourth among quarterbacks in scramble yards from Week 10 on while averaging a blistering 10.1 yards per rush, per Fantasy Points Data. Murray looked more comfortable as a passer the longer he played, averaging 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt in the final three games.
And now, he’ll captain an improving offense that added Marvin Harrison Jr.
If Murray continues to run at that same clip and his overall passing efficiency improves in a quietly well-designed Drew Petzing offense, he has QB1 overall in his range of outcomes.
Love is a case where I’m high on the offense overall but struggle to pin down my exact feelings on a crowded wide receiver depth chart filled with good players. So, in that case, why not just grab the man behind center? As my old buddy Rumford Johnny used to say, “Draft the syrup over the pancakes.” All-in on the receivers but the target tree is a little murky? Get the quarterback who will be the distributor of those targets.
It helps that Love was one of the most productive quarterbacks in the league down the stretch and I maintain he was playing well on film long before that. He has the passing ceiling to be a difference-making quarterback and just enough rushing juice to push for a top-five finish every year.
— At running back, I outlined some players I like as targets in the murky dead zone, but let’s take it a few tiers down for “my guys.”
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has been a player I can't stop clicking on this summer. Seriously, sometimes I’m not even trying and yet there he is, on my team, because he was available outside the top seven rounds again. I get having some concern after he suffered a hamstring injury that puts his Week 1 status in doubt and will continue to suppress his ADP. But even if he misses a game or two, I don’t think it’s out of the range of possibilities that Warren leads the backfield in touches this season and has been the more efficient player the last two seasons. He should remain the primary passing-down back. The Steelers will push to lead the NFL in rush attempts this year and Warren is an easy way to get exposure to Arthur Smith’s influence on this offense.
A late-round back I’ve gravitated toward is Chase Brown in Cincinnati. When Zack Moss signed there I initially imagined I’d have him as a proactive draft pick. Moss is still someone I don’t mind taking a shot on but most of the buzz out of training camp is that Brown is likely to be the 1A back of the committee. Brown is simply going too late on Yahoo, as he’s the 116th overall player off the board and the RB33. Brown made some explosive plays in limited looks last year and brought some juice to a Bengals backfield that has not hit home runs in years. As teams continue to clamp the Bengals' deep-pass game, Cincinnati must look for explosives elsewhere. Brown is a viable option in the backfield.
— This is a difficult question to answer at tight end because I’ve been drafting one of the top four options more often than not. Mark Andrews is probably my real selection here and, because he’s the 48th player off the board, I feel comfortable giving him this label. Andrews still paced the team with 0.23 targets per route run and first read targets (47) in the games he started and finished last season. As much as I like Zay Flowers, Andrews is still extremely valuable and may well be the centerpiece of this passing offense. It would be no shock at all if he finished as the TE1.
Since I mildly cheated with Andrews, I’ll give you three sicko-level sleepers at tight end whom I have my eye on.
Jonnu Smith could be in for some serious YAC opportunities in Miami with the space those receivers clear out. No one liked it but Smith was efficient on such routes in Atlanta last year, averaging 8.43 yards per target.
Will Dissly is going to see the field a ton for the Chargers as an identity-setting piece at tight end after that room was a mess under the previous staff. He’ll primarily be a blocker but he could catch 40 balls and find the end zone five times as the TE1 in L.A.
Lastly, rookie Theo Johnson may be in line to start for the New York Giants and is an athletic freak. Rookie tight ends are usually off the radar but … you never know.
Wide receivers
Again, I’m going to avoid anyone who is going in the first few rounds in this spot. If you follow my work charting wide receivers, you know who I like in that range. Let’s instead get to some candidates going outside the top 30 at the position who aren’t rookies, since we covered them in their own section.
— Diontae Johnson remains a painfully underrated player. The Panthers' wide receivers created zero separation last season for Bryce Young and that’s been Johnson’s specialty as a pro.
NEW #ReceptionProfile on Panthers WR Diontae Johnson is live on the site.
- 75.2% success rate vs man coverage (81st percentile)
- 82.3% success rate vs zone (82nd)
- 78.3% success rate vs press (85th)
While not a flawless player, what Diontae Johnson does well...he does… pic.twitter.com/lJSECia92u— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) March 19, 2024
Given that skill set, he is going to absorb volume this year. He’s done it every season of his career, regardless of the quarterback. Johnson set career-highs last year in yards per target (8.2) and yards per route run (1.97), despite carrying the highest aDOT of his career (12.7) and playing with the worst quarterback room he’s seen as a pro. That’s simply because he was moved around the formation and not pigeon-holed as a boundary X at 5-foot-10, 183 pounds. After watching Dave Canales beautifully construct Mike Evans’ route tree and deployment to suit Baker Mayfield, I trust him to get Johnson’s role right. If Young is even a league-average passer, Johnson will smash his meager WR32 ADP.
— Chris Godwin caught over 80 passes and cleared 1,000 yards last season, but he didn’t find the end zone often. Still, he finished four spots ahead of his WR31 ADP. He should play better now that he’s more into the slot in an 11-personnel-based offense under Liam Coen. Godwin isn’t a screaming value but he’s a nice target who is going as a WR3 but could finish as a strong WR2.
— Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s rookie season wasn’t nearly as bad as the stats indicate. He was a rookie receiver who missed time in the offseason playing behind two established star receivers. Let’s calm down with the rush to judgment. The film and his RP charting show that Smith-Njigba was a strong separator against man and zone coverage, particularly on intermediate routes. Those map out well to what Ja’Lynn Polk was asked to do in new Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s offense at Washington.
As discussed on the pod with @robertmays, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja’Lynn Polk definitely some similar strengths on their route charts in #ReceptionPerception
We could see JSN more effectively utilized in that intermediate area in Ryan Grubb’s offense. https://t.co/RiTvFeFJeS pic.twitter.com/xAzJCwoZa2— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) July 12, 2024
The second-year receiver is in line for a volume boost in an offense that attacks the intermediate area of the field. He’s one of my favorite post-hype sleepers this season. There’s an outside chance he leads this team in receptions.
— Curtis Samuel, this is the year! Few people have been bigger supporters of Curtis Samuel’s game than me during his career. While he can play in the slot and move around the formation to create layup touches, the guy wins outside against man coverage too. He should be on the field a ton for the Bills offense while going from the quarterback outhouse to the penthouse with Josh Allen. I like Khalil Shakir and am interested to see where Keon Coleman gets deployed, but Samuel is the favorite to be the Bills' most productive pass-catcher. My optimism has ticked down just a bit on Samuel since he's dealing with a turf toe injury that could make him less productive to start the year, but there is optimism he'll be ready for Week 1.
— Michael Wilson and Josh Downs are two of the most slept-on second-year receivers. Wilson showed strong separation skills against man coverage as a rookie. If you’re an outside receiver who clears a 70% success rate vs. man coverage in Reception Perception, we’re interested in you. Wilson checks that box. He’s an easy ADP way to get access to an ascending Cardinals offense and complements Marvin Harrison Jr. well.
— Downs did sustain a high ankle sprain in camp, which does temper my extreme optimism for his second-year breakout. But if he gets healthy quickly, the guy is a baller who will play a big role for the Colts. He gets open with ease and was gobbling targets before a 2023 knee injury. The best way to help a non-consistently accurate quarterback like Richardson is to give him layup targets to separators like Downs.
— Lastly, I still have the candle lit for Rashod Bateman.
He still runs clean routes and executed his assignments in the offense last year. The ball just didn’t come his way and that’s excusable, considering the new coaching staff barely had time with him in the offseason while he worked his way back from a brutal foot injury. The Ravens have heavily endorsed him with their words and actions. Bateman is a clear starting outside receiver for what will be a good offense.
He's currently going undrafted on Yahoo. Ride with me one last time.
One player(s) I won’t leave a draft without
Ignore the math and mean outcomes and take your shots on Texans' wide receivers in drafts this year.
As I wrote in my projections recap piece, it may be unlikely that, if all three Texans wideouts stay healthy and play at their peak, Nico Collins exceeds his late Round 2/early Round 3 ADP. That is, unless you project C.J. Stroud to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns.
That’s possible because he’s electric, but not probable. The math won’t necessarily add up for a room like this one.
I desperately need you to stop caring about this.
Mean outcomes don’t win fantasy football leagues. You take down a league by landing on extreme upside cases that you got at a value. In a league ruled by chaos, you can’t be afraid to sail into the eye of the storm. Should one of these Texans receivers miss time, the others will launch into WR1 territory. That’s how good these three guys are and how special Stroud can be in Year 2.
I broke down the Texans' wide receivers in depth earlier this offseason here on Yahoo. I expect all three to play critical roles for the team.
| Player | Yds | Y/G | Tgt | Rec | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 N. Collins | 1,297 | 86.5 | 109 | 80 | 8 |
 S. Diggs IR | 1,183 | 69.6 | 160 | 107 | 8 |
 T. Dell | 709 | 64.5 | 75 | 47 | 7 |
Nico Collins plays as the X-receiver, which means he’s the least likely to leave the field and was one of the most dominant wideouts in football against man and press coverage in 2023. His arrow is pointing up. His mean projection might not equal WR16 but his upside case is significantly higher. This is the type of prime, alpha WR1 I want to bet on.
Stefon Diggs took a step back as an individual player last season but still showed the ability to separate on short, quick-hitting routes at an extremely high level. I can easily see his role folding out for a Texans offense that was not efficient on late downs.
Before trading for Stefon Diggs, the Texans at least made a call on Keenan Allen. After looking at both of their #ReceptionPerception profiles, I can see Diggs playing in that Keenan Allen type of role. pic.twitter.com/jgDfqHUxmS
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 4, 2024
That won’t equal the same fantasy ceiling Diggs once had, but at WR24, he’s worth chasing, especially if he develops a mind-meld with Stroud in the slot.
Then there is Tank Dell, who was the most productive Texans wideout for stretches as a rookie. Dell is undersized, but he obliterates man coverage on the outside. His role and skill set may lead to some scoring volatility in this crowded room, but he’s an A-tier separator on out-breaking routes with a quarterback who can rip those throws. When he does hit, he will win you weeks.
Projections don’t help you capture the upside of unique situations. Rankings don’t capture those ceiling cases like you need to build a devastating receiver corps. Lean into one of those rare moments this season by making sure you get exposure to one of these wideouts early in your draft.
Good luck in your 2024 drafts!
We at Yahoo Fantasy hope this blueprint will help you draft juggernaut teams in 2024 — whether drafting early or leaving things until the last minute (we'll have tips for that soon, don't worry) — ones replete with talent and upside at every position, that will help you crush September and the playoffs too, on your road to multiple fantasy championships!
