Fantasy University: Course 302 — Finding the right draft strategy for you
I've been saying for years that any fantasy football draft strategy can work if you pick the right player. Sadly, the converse is true — any wonderfully conceived fantasy strategy can collapse for any number of reasons. This is the world we have chosen. Randomness and variance are not always friendly.
Nonetheless, today's assignment is to consider some of the most common of fantasy strategies and help you decide which one of them is most likely a fit for you.
Running Back Strategies
Individual running backs are probably more important to fantasy success than they are to real-life success, and with that, a lot of time and energy is devoted to trying to find the ideal running back strategy.
— Robust RB: The oldest running back strategy was to get multiple backs of note at the front of your draft and bully your way to fantasy glory. It was a far more viable strategy in a past era, when more NFL teams utilized a bell-cow strategy with backfield usage. With bell cows largely dying out and most teams opting for backfield platoons, Robust RB isn't as popular — though some managers still feel comfortable with this established concept. The downside: you're throwing the most draft capital at the biggest injury-risk position.
— Zero RB: Sometime in the 2010s the idea of Zero RB came into vogue (industry pioneer Shawn Siegele was one of the earliest proponents, though other strategies with related concepts were around in similar timelines). If you adopt this strategy, you'll pass on the early backs, hoping to find upside hits at the position later, or perhaps on the free-agent market. Zero-RB drafters like to target high-ceiling backups and are looking to assemble rosters that will potentially play nicely if the position is flooded with injuries, as it often is. The downside: as Zero RB has become a mainstream strategy, its effectiveness probably isn't equal to its early days, as even casual managers have learned how critical it is to stockpile upside backs on their benches.
— Anchor RB or Hero RB: This is a hybrid between the two strategies above. The idea is that you get one strong running back whom you'll start every week, and then look to fill out the rest of your backfield with mid-round and later picks. It's a reasonable compromise between the other two schools and is usually the strategy I like to target. Some managers feel their Anchor/Hero RB has to come in the first round, but I'd posit this build is still workable even if you take that signature runner in the second or third round. The downside: at least one of your premium picks is tied to the highest injury-risk position.
Wide Receiver Strategies
As the NFL has shifted into a pass-first league and many fantasy leagues are starting more WRs/flexes, receivers have stepped into more fantasy significance. With that, I only see two viable paths to building your receiver room.
— Bully The WRs: Aim to have one of the best WR groups in the league by prioritizing the position early in drafts.
— Space Out Your WRs: Draft WRs in balance with the rest of your position check-offs.
The reason I prefer to Bully The WRs is that waiver-wire receivers are seldom seismic hits (yes, Puka Nacua was a gigantic outlier in 2023), and I want to try to roster receivers who start themselves. It's no fun sitting on a roster of WR40-60 types and going into the bunker every week trying to guess which inconsistent pass-catcher is due for a spike week. I want to be fortified at this spot.
Quarterback Strategies
Most fantasy managers realize that, although the real-life NFL is all about the quarterback, that's not true in fantasy. Your QB build probably comes down to one of four themes:
— Vanity QB: Spend up, get a top-five option.
— Franchise QB: Get a quarterback somewhere in the 6-12 range who can plausibly crash the top five.
— Budget QB: Draft the position outside the top 12; preferably with more than one option.
— Low-Budget QB: Take what's left at the end of the draft or stream the position; usually not ideal unless you're in a very specific league format that makes this viable.
My preferences usually belong in the second or third group, to select a QB who excites me but still has room to jump a tier or two. With all due respect to the QBs at the top of everyone's board, I don't like the opportunity cost of selecting them — usually sacrificing the addition of a key receiver or running back who would profile as an every-week starter. I'm also likely to eschew Low-Budget QB, although I'm not afraid to add an emerging QB in-season if things are falling into place for him.
Tight End Strategies
We've been spoiled in the fantasy era with a host of legendary tight ends. Now, your tight-end build approach probably falls under one of these three headings:
— Vanity Tight End: This year, that's Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce.
— Signature Tight End: One of the next eight tight ends, who all land somewhere in the top 100 overall picks.
— Budget Tight End: Hoping to find a breakout star outside the top 100 picks.
I'll probably pass on LaPorta and Kelce this summer, as they're both commanding top-25 picks in Yahoo leagues and I don't like what that does to my receiver build. Every manager should be able to find something in the next eight players that makes sense for them — I see Kyle Pitts and Jake Ferguson, coming off the board in the 60s and 70s, respectively, as strong candidates to outkick their summer tags.
It’s not impossible to win the TE position with a budget approach, but there are obvious red flags for every candidate outside the top 10. Sometimes they’re tied to a lesser quarterback, or maybe it's a crowded target-tree. How confident you feel in your ability to identify a breakout tight end will largely color your strategy at this position.
Now that we've covered things to consider for your draft, let's examine things to avoid.
Next class ⏩️ 303: Common mistakes people make
Previous class ⏪️ 301: Guide to a successful draft
