Fantasy Football Rankings: RBs one analyst likes less than consensus
ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which means the average rankings of the fantasy football industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site-to-site). This ongoing positional series will highlight some big differences between ECR and my own ranks.
[QBs I like more/less | RBs I like more | RBs I like less | WRs I like more | TEs I like more/less]
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
ECR: RB6 vs. My Rank: RB8
Barkley unquestionably improved offensive environments with the move to Philadelphia, but his decline last season involved more than just his teammates. Barkley’s broken tackle% (4.7) was the sixth-worst in the league and only Dameon Pierce and Miles Sanders had a worse EPA/rush attempt. The receiving peripherals aren’t any better; Barkley has finished second-to-last in EPA/target each of the last two seasons.
History hasn’t been kind to running backs switching teams at this stage of their career, and Barkley’s new quarterback scored 15 rushing touchdowns last year, including 11 from the one-yard line. The Eagles were one of only two teams without a single RB rush attempt from the goal line last season. Philadelphia running backs rank just 25th in targets since Hurts took over as starter and have seen the fifth-fewest expected fantasy points over the last two years.
Only two of 69 Eagles passing touchdowns over the last three seasons have gone to RBs. Philadelphia has a loaded WR/TE group and a running QB, so targets will be limited. Barkley struggles before contact (and remember, Jason Kelce retired) and simply doesn’t resemble the player he was when entering the league.
Barkley is a risky top-12 pick in Yahoo leagues.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
ECR: RB7 vs. My Rank: RB9
The Rams’ offense has potential to be great if fully healthy, and Sean McVay loves using a workhorse back. Williams has developed into a good NFL runner, but he benefitted from a favorable schedule last year and struggles as a receiver; he saw just three targets over the last three games last season (including the playoffs). But the biggest concern with Williams is his health.
Williams suffered a high-ankle sprain and a Jones fracture in 2022 and then a hip contusion, another high-ankle sprain and a broken hand in the playoffs (that required surgery and would’ve cost him weeks) last season. He also sat out OTAs in spring because of a “foot issue.” As a result, Los Angeles drafted Blake Corum in the third round to help lessen Williams’ workload.
Williams is a 5-9, 194-pound fifth-rounder who’s missed 35-plus% of the games since being drafted, and Corum is impressing, so RB7 is too high.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
ECR: RB9 vs. My Rank: RB11
The final fantasy numbers were there, but Etienne wore down when given a heavier workload last season. His YPC dropped from 5.1 in 2022 down to 3.8 last year, when Jacksonville reduced his workload after the team’s bye. Etienne was the RB3 (18.8 fantasy points per game) over Weeks 1-9 but just the RB23 (11.4 fpg) over Weeks 10-18. There’s been talk throughout summer about the Jaguars continuing to do the same in 2024, so it may not matter that Tank Bigsby isn’t good.
Etienne is also due for regression after scoring more than twice as many touchdowns last season despite seeing fewer red-zone carries compared to 2022; he scored a whopping five touchdowns more than expected last year. Jacksonville has produced the third-fewest RB expected fantasy points over the last two seasons, and Press Taylor is a problem at offensive coordinator.
I’d draft Isiah Pacheco over Etienne this year.
D’Andre Swift, Chicago Bears
ECR: RB24 vs. My Rank: RB32
Swift was the RB24 (11.2 fpg) last season while acting as lead back behind a Philadelphia offensive line that ranked first in run-block win rate. He ranked eighth in yards before contact but finished last in % of carries that produced 2+ yards after contact. Swift ranked toward the bottom of the league in most advanced rushing stats, and the Bears’ offensive line is a big downgrade. He was unlucky routinely falling just short of the end zone and losing touchdowns to Jalen Hurts, but Swift also struggles in short-yardage situations and pass protection.
Matt Eberflus likes to use a “hot hand” split backfield philosophy, so Roschon Johnson could take passing downs with Khalil Herbert mixed in. Herbert ranked behind only De’Von Achane in rush yards over expectation last season, when he was one of just eight RBs who forced 25+ missed tackles on fewer than 175 rushing attempts. Herbert also struggles in pass protection, but he’s been an elite rusher when given the opportunity throughout his career and is likely Chicago’s best ballcarrier. Swift’s contract makes him the clear starter entering the year, but this could easily end up a three-way committee.
Seattle is the only team that produced fewer RB expected fantasy points than Chicago over the last two seasons, and the Seahawks’ OC is now with the Bears. Swift has a checkered injury history and had never played a full season until last year, so RB24 is too high.
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Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
ECR: RB22 vs. My Rank: RB28
White averaged 24.3 opportunities and 114.3 scrimmage yards during four games Josh Jacobs missed last season. White also outplayed Jacobs, who’s now in Green Bay. But White also has some obvious red flags typically seen with “Dead Zone RBs.” He’s a fourth-round pick who hasn’t reached 175 carries since he was a sophomore in high school. White totaled 17 receptions in college, played just eight third downs all last season and is shaky in pass protection, so he’s likely to cede passing down work to rookie Dylan Laube. Moreover, White’s four starts while Jacobs was sidelined all came against teams ranked 21st or worse in run defense DVOA.
Antonio Pierce may want to run the ball, but Las Vegas will likely be playing plenty from behind; Las Vegas is projected to score the sixth-fewest points and win just 6.5 games this season. New Las Vegas OC Luke Getsy just got fired from the Bears, and the Raiders enter 2024 with one of the league’s shakiest quarterback situations.
A two-down back on a bad team with a small track record and a low pedigree — but a high ADP — is a recipe for fantasy disappointment.