Fantasy Football Rankings: Where the consensus goes wrong on TEs
ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which means the average rankings of the fantasy football industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site-to-site). This ongoing positional series will highlight some big differences between ECR and my own ranks.
[QBs I like more/less | RBs I like more | RBs I like less | WRs I like more | WRs I like less]
Tight Ends I like more than consensus
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
ECR: TE3 vs. My Rank: TE1
McBride led all tight ends in first downs per route run last season, which is one of the best stats at predicting future fantasy success. He also posted the best yards per route run (2.04) mark by a tight end younger than 25 over the last 10 years. McBride was a standout college player who had a higher Dominator Rating, career YPRR, PFF Receiving Grade and a faster 40 than Sam LaPorta.
McBride commanded a 29% target share after finally becoming a starter in Week 8 last season. In fact, he recorded a 20-plus% target share in 12 straight games after becoming a full-time player, a mark LaPorta reached in just six games all season. McBride averaged 11.6 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) from Weeks 10-17 while recording just one touchdown; LaPorta averaged 12.0 fantasy ppg over that span while scoring five TDs. McBride had only five fewer catches than LaPorta while starting just 12 games, and Arizona’s passing volume should improve in 2024.
McBride will lose some targets to rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. this season, but the competition in Arizona after the rookie WR is weak. Moreover, the Cardinals had a top-10 offense over the second half of last season and will likely improve along with Kyler Murray’s health in 2024. The NFC West should feature numerous shootouts this year as well.
McBride looks like a star already, and he’ll be featured in an ascending offense. He’s my top fantasy tight end.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
ECR: TE7 vs. My Rank: TE5
Kittle led all tight ends in yards per route run, yards per target, yards per reception, yards per team pass attempt, EPA and deep targets in 2023, when his route participation grew to a career-high 95.3%. There was also a wide gap between Kittle and every other tight end in ESPN’s receiver rating. He accomplished all this while playing through a core muscle injury that required offseason surgery for about 10 weeks.
Of course, playing through injuries is nothing new to Kittle, who’s still managed to play 14+ games in six of his seven years in the league.
Kittle is one year removed from scoring 11 touchdowns (after Brock Purdy took over), and he’s been a top-five fantasy tight end for five consecutive seasons. The 49ers are projected to score the most points in the league and set to pass more frequently in 2024, and there’s TE1 upside should Brandon Aiyuk be traded or Deebo Samuel suffer an injury.
Dalton Kincaid has a higher ECR, but his target share (20%) and fantasy production (TE6) dropped dramatically with Dawson Knox on the field (14%, TE18) last year. Knox had the same number of red-zone targets (nine) as Kincaid, who ranked 25th in 1D/RR and averaged just 21.7 routes over his last six games (including the playoffs). Buffalo was far more successful in 12 personnel last season, so Knox is expected to remain heavily involved in Buffalo’s offense. Kincaid will see more targets in Year 2 and with Stefon Diggs gone, but Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir provide new target competition.
Kittle is an ideal Round 6 target, but beware his ADP will (rightfully) rise if Aiyuk leaves.
Jonnu Smith, Miami Dolphins
ECR: TE35 vs. My Rank: TE22
The Dolphins didn’t feature their tight end much last season, but that could change in 2024 with Jonnu Smith in Miami. As much as it frustrated Kyle Pitts’ fantasy managers, Smith was good last year, ranking 12th in yards per route run (1.58) and seventh in yards per target (8.4). He also finished eighth in yards after the catch, sixth in broken tackles and recorded the two fastest ballcarrier speeds by a tight end, which would seemingly fit well in Miami.
Mike McDaniel appears to have plans for his new tight end, and the depth chart behind Smith is thin. Play action has boosted fantasy production for TEs a whopping 80% over the last three seasons, and the Dolphins called it at the second-highest frequency in the NFL last season. Miami is unlikely to score rushing TDs at the same rate as last year in 2024, and Smith once pulled down eight touchdowns in limited work in Tennessee.
The tight end position suffers a major drop-off after the top 13, and Smith possesses the most fantasy upside in that huge tier.
Tight Ends I like less than consensus
Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions
ECR: TE1 vs. My Rank: TE2
LaPorta had an awesome rookie season, but he was hardly elite and many fantasy points came from an unsustainably high TD rate. LaPorta finished fifth among tight ends in expected fantasy points and ranked 47th overall in fantasy points over replacement per game. He’s due for touchdown regression and will battle for targets with a true alpha in Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Jameson Williams also finally looks ready to break out in 2024, so the Lions have many options on a run-heavy offense (-3.9 PROE last season).
LaPorta doesn’t stand out among the Tier 1 tight ends, yet he goes three rounds earlier than McBride.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
ECR: TE16 vs. My Rank: TE21
I’m all for prioritizing late-season fantasy production (I’m high on Jonathon Brooks), but Hockenson’s ideal return date is around Week 12. He’s likely shooting to come back around Week 7, but Hockenson suffered a multi-ligament knee injury that required 36 days of rest before surgery on January 29. Hockenson is unlikely to be 100% until 2025, and he’ll have Sam Darnold or a rookie as his new quarterback whenever he returns.
The most recent word is that the Vikings expect him to return at some point in the first half of the season. You had better have an IR slot in your league if you were drafting Hockenson this year.
