Fantasy Football 2024 Caution List: 1 potential bust on all 32 NFL teams
With the 2024 NFL regular season nearly here, we here at For The Win have already given you almost every possible tool you need to beat your friends and loved ones in fantasy football. This fantasy cheat sheet featuring sleepers, player rankings, and veteran value plays, among so many other things, is basically a one-stop shop to guarantee yourself a spot in your league's postseason at a minimum. (Yes, yes, that's a humblebrag.)
But you still have to be careful.
Given the fickle nature of an online game based around a volatile (and dangerous) sport like pro football, not every player selection is bound to pay off the way you hope. In fact, you're more than likely to be kicking yourself at at least one draft pick come early October. Sorry, it's true.
In the interest of helping you steer clear of players who might sink your team, here's one player with legit bust potential on all 32 NFL teams. Don't say I didn't warn you.
Arizona Cardinals: WR Greg Dortch
Dortch is a Cardinals fan favorite and a dynamic slot target when he actually gets the ball in his hands. The issue is that much of Arizona's target volume will now be funneled to Marvin Harrison Jr., promising tight end Trey McBride, and even WR2 Michael Wilson. That leaves Dortch on the outside looking in as a fourth option at best in what will probably only be an OK Cardinals offense.
Atlanta Falcons: TE Kyle Pitts
I know what you're thinking. The arrival of a top-12 quarterback like Kirk Cousins was supposed to be a harbinger of Pitts' long-awaited resurgence after his incredible rookie season in 2021. Honestly, I can still see it happening. But Pitts has enjoyed poor quarterback play for so long now that I'm not sure the juice is there anymore. Bad habits start to form in cases like this. And there is a realistic possibility that Drake London, Bijan Robinson, and even deep threat Darnell Mooney are all ahead of Pitts in the Falcons' pass target pecking order.
Baltimore Ravens: RB Derrick Henry
Don't get me wrong. I love Henry. He's arguably the finest running back of his generation, and he could very well make a lot of sweet music by sharing a Baltimore backfield with reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. At the same time, Henry has nearly 2,200 career touches, and 2024 will be his year 30 season. Henry might be the exception, but the track record for older, physical running backs with that kind of mileage playing like superstars isn't great.
Buffalo Bills: WR Keon Coleman
In the wake of Stefon Diggs' departure, some expect Coleman to have a huge role as one of Josh Allen's new best friends in Buffalo this year. For a talented second-round pick, I can see why. But that assumes Coleman will buck the trend of some rookie receivers not enjoying a steep developmental curve to start their career. It also assumes that Allen won't favor more experienced players like Curtis Samuel and Khalil Shakir while also leaning on tight end Dalton Kincaid in the middle of the field. Proceed with Coleman at your own risk.
Carolina Panthers: WR Diontae Johnson
The Panthers traded for the inconsistent Johnson to give the struggling Bryce Young a better floor. At face value, Johnson is a terrific route runner who manipulates space very well, especially in the quick game. But from a macro perspective, the 28-year-old is who he is at this point -- an unreliable, if immature, weapon with one season of at least 1,000 yards in his career who probably still can't be relied upon. I'd bet any money that an aging Adam Thielen will still be Young's most trusted target in 2024.
Chicago Bears: RB D'Andre Swift
The Bears plan to use Swift as their explosive change-of-pace to Caleb Williams' downfield passing out of the backfield. And in small doses, I have no doubt their plan will work -- Swift is a bona fide home run threat that can take a good offense and make it great. The problem is Swift has just one season -- last year with the Philadelphia Eagles -- where he was healthy and dependable throughout. For four years, he has shown a capacity to break down and crumble the more an offense uses him. Maybe Swift will replicate his 2023 performance or even expand upon it. But I certainly wouldn't bet on that happening.
Cincinnati Bengals: WR Tee Higgins
I hate to be the bearer of bad news for a guy in a contract dispute waiting out the string until he can leave Cincinnati, but there isn't a good vibe around Higgins' 2024. He remains the ancillary option to Ja'Marr Chase -- who has a lot more chemistry with Joe Burrow. The Bengals also figure to reorganize their offense around running backs Zack Moss and Chase Brown in a stable effort to keep pressure off of Burrow. Call it a hunch, but we could unfortunately see a down year by Higgins' high standards.
Cleveland Browns: WR Jerry Jeudy
I don't get the sense that many believe in Jeudy at this stage of his career ... because why would they? The Denver Broncos offloaded the former first-rounder after four disappointing seasons. Now he's, what, at best, the fourth option in a Browns offense quarterbacked by a washed-up Deshaun Watson, who once faced more than 20 allegations of sexual misconduct in what the NFL would later characterize as "predatory behavior"? If you want to buy low on Jeudy, go right ahead. Just don't expect him to deliver too much.
Dallas Cowboys: RB Ezekiel Elliott
Nothing about Elliott's recent career suggests he is ready to be a feature back again at ... 29. He hasn't averaged at least four yards a carry in two seasons and has one 1,000-yard campaign since 2019. Sure, he might be a solid goal-line touchdown play for a Dallas offense that figures to have no trouble moving well between the 20s. But that also presupposes Elliott playing a big role in that success. And I'm not confident he will.
Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix
With Bo Nix, the Broncos think they're on the verge of ending a near-decade drought without consistent starting quarterback play. I'm more skeptical. Nix plays the definition of a safe game. He will do all this flashy work scrambling around the line of scrimmage ... only to dump off a bog-standard five-yard check-down to a tailback. He will not test defenses in a meaningful way that asks them to reconfigure their formations and take a defender out of the box. I have no idea why anyone would start Nix in fantasy, but even as a spot backup in a bye week, there's not much to love here for someone whose play style prioritizes empty-calorie efficiency above all else.
Detroit Lions: WR Jameson Williams
Thanks to their mostly complete offense, the Lions might be the NFC Super Bowl favorite.
A dominant offensive line? Check. A high-volume receiver (Amon-Ra St. Brown)? Check. Experienced and dynamic top-third quarterback play? Check. An offensive coordinator who plays to his unit's strengths and keeps defenses on their toes? Check. What the Lions are missing is a dynamic downfield receiving threat. That was supposed to be Jameson Williams, who has yet to piece it all together as he enters the third year of his career. Williams might still possess the natural ability, but at this point, I don't see the Lions fully giving him the chance to explode. It would probably be a disservice to the way their elite offense is already structured.
Green Bay Packers: WR Christian Watson
The Packers are a sleeper contender in an NFC conference that might surprise a lot of people with the depth and quality of upper-crust teams. But I don't think Green Bay's success, especially on offense, will be predicated on Watson having his way with helpless cornerbacks. The third-year receiver has struggled with injuries thus far in his career and remains a mostly limited one-note, nine-route receiver. This Green Bay attack figures to dominate while actually being centered around Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks first. Anyone who has the nerve to draft Watson should proceed with caution.
Houston Texans: RB Joe Mixon
Someone has to be the "loser" in this Texans contender resurgence. Obviously, I don't think it will be C.J. Stroud. Or Tank Dell. Or Nico Collins. Or even Stefon Diggs -- Houston doesn't make that trade if he's not a focal point of the offense. It has to be someone when the Texans aren't playing to their passing game strengths, like in the running game. It has to be Joe Mixon, a back who has averaged just barely over four yards per carry in his career and relies on a steady diet of check-downs out of the backfield. Don't be surprised when former rookie standout Dameon Pierce potentially supplants Mixon simply because he might offer more as a runner with better opportunity.
Indianapolis Colts: QB Anthony Richardson
To be clear, I do like Richardson's long-term prospects as a quarterback. Down the line, I think he has a legitimate chance at pushing C.J. Stroud as the best signal-caller from the 2023 draft. With that said, shoulder surgery took away a lot of valuable reps from Richardson during his rookie season. Those are reps that he frankly needed to polish up some of the more unrefined passing aspects of his game. Shane Steichen is the perfect steward for a young quarterback, and Richardson will get there in time, but he will look more rough around the edges to start 2024 than fantasy managers should be comfortable with.
Jacksonville Jaguars: WR Christian Kirk
The Jaguars drafted Brian Thomas Jr. to inject some new life into their offense after the departure of Calvin Ridley. That also means they might prioritize his connection with Trevor Lawrence more often than you'd expect to build early chemistry. I don't think Gabe Davis will be a victim of circumstance here, as he was already a WR3. The guy whose production is more likely to take a dip is Christian Kirk, someone who isn't an elite separator and has relied on heavy target volume to excel in years past. Suffice it to say: the Kirk of 2022 (84 catches, 1,108 yards, eight touchdowns) probably isn't coming back.
Kansas City Chiefs: WR Xavier Worthy
After repeating as Super Bowl champions, the Chiefs' reloaded offense will give them a likely chance at the first three-peat of the modern era. But ask yourself an important question: Who is most likely to be on the outside looking in? It's not the future Hall of Fame tight end. It's not the second-year receiver who caught nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie. It definitely ain't the guy with the nickname "Hollywood," who has shown remarkable big-play ability for most of his career. It'll be Worthy, perhaps the fastest player in the NFL, who may still need significant polish before he does anything more than just run past defenders.
Las Vegas Raiders: TE Brock Bowers
The 2023 season showed that the trend of rookie tight ends taking time to grow into the NFL was perhaps a bit overblown. Sam LaPorta and Dalton Kincaid, in particular, were actually productive because their respective Detroit and Buffalo offenses made sure to feature them. But the thing about the Lions and Bills was that they were two of the better NFL offenses with quality quarterback play and quality coordinating. Bowers will not get that benefit with Luke Getsy as his coach and Gardner Minshew as his quarterback, so I wouldn't hold my breath about him excelling right away.
Los Angeles Chargers: WR Joshua Palmer
No one knows how to lift up the floor of a football team quite like Jim Harbaugh. But everything about these Chargers screams, "We're using 2024 as a gap year." This is particularly the case with their passing game, where Palmer is the current projected No. 1 receiver. You know, the guy who has averaged 7.8 yards per target over his career. Or, the guy who is better suited as a complementary weapon of an offense rather than its center. I have faith in Justin Herbert making the best of his situation, but that doesn't mean Palmer is about to dominate against top defensive coverage.
Los Angeles Rams: WR Cooper Kupp
The former Super Bowl 46 MVP is two years removed from his historic triple crown season. In the time since he has appeared in just 21 of a possible 34 games thanks to injuries. He is now 31 and definitively behind Puka Nacua in the Rams' pecking order. Kupp may well still contribute, but he's almost certainly past his NFL peak. You do the math.
Miami Dolphins: RB Raheem Mostert
This is less a statement on Mostert's ability after a career season, even though he is 32 this year. It's more that the Dolphins themselves have assembled a backfield-by-committee. With rookie Jaylen Wright and a healthy De'Von Achane in the fold, I would not nearly expect Mostert to have the same amount of touches in 2024 (243) as he did in 2023. His workload and numbers should drop, even though the Dolphins' offensive diversity will likely pick up. As such, he won't be a slam-dunk RB1 like last season.
Minnesota Vikings: TE T.J. Hockenson
At his best, I think Hockenson remains a top-flight tight end in a league currently facing a scarcity at the position. However, the veteran did tear his ACL last year and, at the time of this publishing, still does not have a designated return date. Knowing that, I'm not sure it's worth drafting and stashing Hockenson in an offense quarterbacked by Sam Darnold because we don't even know when we'll see him in game action next.
New England Patriots: TE Hunter Henry
Signed as a big-ticket acquisition for the Patriots three years ago, Henry has never quite lived up to the hype. In fact, to date, the tight end has just one New England season with at least 600 receiving yards and just one season with at least 50 catches (the same year). Now, he's part of a Patriots offense that will struggle to block for a green Drake Maye as he learns the ropes. So, of all the New England pass-catchers to stay away from (which might really be all of them), I'll go with the plodding target in the middle of the field who isn't a natural separator.
New Orleans Saints: RB Alvin Kamara
Once a perennial Pro Bowler -- and perhaps the best all-around tailback in the NFL -- Kamara enjoyed a career-worst season in yards from scrimmage in 2023. In fact, he hasn't even eclipsed 500 yards receiving in three years. In a Saints offense bogged down by the Derek Carr of it all, expect Kamara's recent downward slope to continue in a harsh manner.
New York Giants: WR Malik Nabers
I love Nabers' future in the NFL. I think he's going to be an electric, top-five-caliber playmaker for a decade or more. In his rookie season, though, his quarterback is Daniel "How Are You Still A Starter?" Jones and his tattered offensive line have barely practiced together all preseason. What I'm saying is: How is he getting the ball, and will the bad quarterback ever have enough consistent time to get him the ball when he gets open? Nabers and anyone who drafts him should brace themselves for a potentially agonizing year that will test a lot of people's patience.
New York Jets: QB Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers hasn't been good since 2021. Now he's 40, coming off an Achilles tear, and is playing behind a randomly cobbed-up together offensive line. Please exercise some tact before you consider drafting him anywhere remotely high.
Philadelphia Eagles: RB Saquon Barkley
Don't get me wrong. I love Barkley's fit with the Eagles. I think he and Jalen Hurts have a genuine capacity to make fireworks for a Philadelphia team capable of earning a top-two seed in the NFC. But we can't deny the history of overutilized running backs in their late 20s and early 30s. In his last three seasons, Barkley has a total of 843 touches. He has been the engine behind some really uninspiring Giants offenses. The Eagles are smarter and probably won't burn Barkley out, but the damage might already be done.
Pittsburgh Steelers: QB Russell Wilson/QB Justin Fields
Thanks to Wilson and Fields, there seems to be a newfound energy with Mike Tomlin's Steelers. An energy that says this team might be able to compete with the AFC's real heavyweights. That faith is misplaced, and fantasy managers better be wary. Wilson is over the hill and has lost the necessary mobility that once made him a perennial Pro Bowl quarterback. Fields remains the same signal-caller with a nonexistent pocket presence who seldom goes past his first passing read. Neither is worth your time in fantasy unless you like quarterbacks who create obstacles for themselves every possession.
San Francisco 49ers: WR Deebo Samuel
A rash of defensive injuries and a bizarre feeling around the 49ers makes me think this team is destined for a slow start in 2024. That means a dip in numbers and, most likely, a hit to Deebo Samuel's numbers in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Yes, we're talking about a guy who takes San Francisco from good to great, but he probably also has fourth priority behind Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk (if he's still in the Bay Area), and George Kittle. At a certain point, Samuel will have to pay the bill.
Seattle Seahawks: WR Tyler Lockett
Lockett has been one of the NFL's most consistent playmakers in recent memory. But after falling short of his first 1,000-yard campaign since 2018 last season, I think we're about to see his gradual decline. You see, Lockett's dip in production wasn't a product of volume. He saw 122 targets last year -- the second-most of his career. Yet he averaged just a paltry 7.3 yards per target. The man will also be 32 in late September. If you're drafting any Seahawks receivers, you go DK Metcalf first, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and then Lockett. Trust me.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield
The 2023 season was the best of Mayfield's career. It came with Dave Canales coordinating the Tampa Bay offense, though, who is now in Carolina. There's enough left to like the Buccaneers' offense in bursts -- you can't go wrong with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin -- but Mayfield will almost certainly not play like the same quarterback. A regression to the mean is coming.
Tennessee Titans: WR DeAndre Hopkins
We have entered the stage of DeAndre Hopkins' career where he is no longer a sure thing to dunk on defensive backs every week. The receiver will be 32 this year, working in a Tennessee offense with no established identity outside of hoping Will Levis' aimless downfield prayers are answered more often than not. Factor in the addition of Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, and I'm not certain Hopkins will be featured as much as he thinks. Did I mention he's currently nursing a knee injury and will miss the first several games of the season? Because ... yeah.
Washington Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels
What do you get when you give a quarterback who doesn't throw over the middle of the field and abandons clean pockets all the time an awful offensive line and receiving corps? An unmitigated developmental disaster.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: Fantasy Football 2024 Caution List: 1 potential bust on all 32 NFL teams