Fantasy Football Booms and Busts: Derrick Henry headlines monster Week 9 for veteran RBs
Remember that paradigm shift that was coming in fantasy football? Draft receivers, they're safer. And for the love of all that is holy, please avoid aging running backs — they're just too risky.
Well, throw it all in the shredder, at least for 2024. In this current fantasy landscape, up is down, down is up and dogs and cats are best friends.
Let's have some fun with the running back leaderboard from Week 9. Derrick Henry, old guy — he's the RB3 with 25.8 fantasy points and just SNF and MNF left to play. Alvin Kamara, old guy — he's at RB4 (24.5 points). Saquon Barkley leads the position in scoring (31.4 points) with touchdowns through the air and on the ground. Joe Mixon did his usual thing (over 100 yards, a touchdown, 16.6 points) in the loss to the Jets on Thursday.
Henry is two months from his 31st birthday. Kamara is 29. Barkley's in his seventh NFL season, age 27. It's season No. 8 for Mixon, age 28.
Fantasy analysts generally don't agree on much, but Henry was pretty close to universally praised and targeted all summer. The reasons were pretty simple — Baltimore always has a strong offensive infrastructure and the rushing presence of Lamar Jackson will open up lanes. And for as athletic as Jackson is, he generally doesn't steal too many of the rushing touchdowns for himself.
Henry's first Baltimore season has been that rare combination of weekly upside and floor. He's scored a touchdown in all nine of his games. This week will be the seventh time he's cracked the top 10 at the position. Even with some tricky matchups on the horizon — including both Pittsburgh games — I don't see what's going to stop Henry. And keep in mind, his career trend says that he's usually more effective as we get deeper into the season.
Henry collected 133 total yards and two touchdowns — pushing him over 100 career rushing scores — in the 41-10 laugher over Denver on Sunday. Jackson only needed to throw 19 times, but he completed 16 of them, good for 280 yards and three touchdowns. Zay Flowers finally broke through with some touchdowns, scoring twice on a 5-127-2 afternoon.
When Henry, Jackson and Flowers are on point, there isn't a lot of room for anyone else. Mark Andrews drew just two targets Sunday; Rashod Bateman had four. Diontae Johnson played about a third of the snaps and ran six routes on 22 dropbacks. I know this might sound wild, but I wonder if his fantasy value was better in Carolina. He'll grow into a bigger Baltimore role eventually, but there's a lot of completion for the ball here.
Kamara continues to race towards a career-high in touches. He had a ridiculous 35 handles in the loss at Carolina, 29 rushes and six catches — making 215 yards on that workload. Taysom Hill vultured a touchdown, but Kamara managers will happily take this line. But we have to wonder how well Kamara will withstand the pounding. His seasonal high for touches is 287, three years ago. After Sunday, he's at 196 through nine games.
Of course, the Saints don't have much else to rely on. Breakout receiver Rashid Shaheed is out for the year. Chris Olave suffered a scary concussion Sunday. There isn't another impactful running back on the roster. Alas, New Orleans has to come up with something. After the splashy 2-0 start to the season back in September — blowout wins over Carolina and Dallas — the Saints have now dropped seven games in a row.
Will the paper bags be out when New Orleans hosts Atlanta next week?
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Other Week 9 booms
Achane doing it all for Dolphins
With all due respect to the older backs, let's tip the cap to the current No. 2 back in Week 9 — that's Miami sophomore De'Von Achane with 28.1 fantasy points. He had 20 touches for 121 total yards and two scores in the loss at Buffalo, including an 8-58-1 line in the passing game (catching all targets). Tua Tagovailoa still hasn't completely rekindled things with Tyreek Hill (4-80-0, five targets) and Jaylen Waddle (minus-4 yards, but a touchdown). Achane is the obvious lynchpin of this Miami offense.
Burrow has a day without much from Chase
Joe Burrow currently has the Week 9 yellow jersey at quarterback, a five-touchdown jamboree over the Raiders. Alas, none of the scores went to Ja'Marr Chase (7-43-0), though it wasn't for a lack of effort (11 targets). Mike Gesicki clicked as a tight end sleeper (5-100-2), Chase Brown caught a touchdown and Drew Sample and Andrei Iosivas scored, keeping each other company on most waiver wires in America.
Fantasy gods have a Week 9 laugh
Sometimes the touchdown trolls come out to play. Josh Allen had three touchdown passes in the win over Miami, and they went to Ray Davis (a nice player, and an add to make, but a backup), Mack Hollins and Quintin Morris (on the 11th catch of his career). Some things are simply impossible to predict. It's interesting to see Allen downshifting as a runner — he scrambled for just seven yards Sunday, and he has just three rushing touchdowns after gobbling up 15 last year.
More Fantasy Football analysis
Speed Round
• If I'm a Bears fan, I'm still extremely nervous they took the wrong quarterback. Caleb Williams was supposed to be stepping into the most friendly of setups, but he's had so many off weeks. The Bears are 31st in third down conversions, only ahead of the Deshaun Watson shipwreck in Cleveland. Nobody thought Jayden Daniels was joining a loaded supporting cast (even with esteemed WR Terry McLaurin in town) and yet Washington is excelling in almost every offensive stat. They're fourth in third down conversions, by the way — and that's a quarterback stat.
• I wonder if the Bears regret letting Darnell Mooney get away. Mooney has been the WR9 in back-to-back weeks, and he's WR12 for the year. Kirk Cousins will never be great, but he's always good to his pass-catchers. The Falcons employ a narrow target tree. The schedule was identified all summer as the easiest in football. Maybe it's a case of following the money, as Atlanta gave Mooney a three-year, $39 million contract. Then again, I have no idea how Kyle Pitts logs just one target in a game where Drake London is injured early.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba finally had the breakout game we've been pining for — before Week 9, he only finished in the top 25 once this season. However, a 7-180-2 game probably brings signature significance into the conversation — it's unlikely to have that type of game without being a special talent. Now the key is Seattle healing up on the offensive line and rebuilding Geno Smith's confidence — he had three picks and seven sacks against the Rams. But we'll return JSN to the Circle of Trust for now.
• It's comical the Eagles almost found a way to gift that game to the Jaguars. Philadelphia had 447 yards of offense, the Jags had just 215. Jacksonville's coaching at the end of the game was especially bad; there was time to use anything in the playbook (even running plays), but the Jaguars acted like the game was over in 30 seconds and ultimately lost throwing a long pass to their third-string running back. Giving Brian Thomas Jr. just four targets on 30 pass attempts is a fireable offense. Granted, there's a long list on the Doug Pederson file.
• Kyler Murray is one of the hardest fantasy players to project. Here's his weekly scan: QB15, QB1, QB17, QB24, QB5, QB25, QB5, QB12, QB28. Some weeks he runs, some weeks he doesn't. He doesn't show regular chemistry with Marvin Harrison Jr. Say this for the Cardinals, they seem to understand James Conner deserves to be the foundation of their offense. I still see Murray ranked globally as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, but his floor doesn't deserve this ranking.
Imagine looking at Jalen Reagor and Justin Jefferson and saying "Reagor."
— scott pianowski (@scott_pianowski) November 4, 2024
• Cedric Tillman needed garbage time to click in Week 9, but give up some props for a WR14, WR3, WR11 run of games. Jameis Winston was predictably exposed against a real defense (he threw three picks, it should have been more), and the Cleveland schedule is not friendly after a Week 10 bye — though the Browns will enjoy a trip to New Orleans in Week 11. Nick Chubb isn't close to 100 percent healthy, which was always the way to bet. Root with a warm heart. Pick fantasy players with cold pragmatism.
• Jared Goff is surging in efficiency and lagging in volume, when fantasy managers would probably prefer the opposite. The Lions have a super offensive line and two excellent backs who compliment each other well. The defense has been excellent, even without Aidan Hutchinson. The Lions can now throw the ball when they want to and not because they have to. For Detroit's passing game fantasy angles to get home, they need to be uber-efficient. (Consider technical wizard Amon-Ra St. Brown, who's caught 30 targets in a row and has touchdowns in six straight games; he has a modest 35 targets on Detroit's six-game winning streak, but he keeps threading the needle. Meanwhile, Sam LaPorta is the TE15.)
• The Cowboys aren't going anywhere, but Rico Dowdle had an efficient and versatile game and should have this backfield to himself forward; Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook aren't a threat to anyone's playing time. Dowdle probably slots as your RB3 or RB4 but he might move up your depth chart as we meander along.
