Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee prediction, keys to NFL Week 7 game
ORCHARD PARK - If it feels like this is a good time for the Buffalo Bills to take a deep breath and enjoy a luxurious exhale now that the arduous six-game meatgrinder portion of their schedule is behind them, that’s perfectly understandable.
Because they were once again a division winner in 2023, the Bills are playing another difficult first-place schedule in 2024, and the NFL certainly did them no favors at the start. They had to go on the road four times in the first six weeks, and they had four prime time kickoffs including one on a Thursday and two more on Mondays and in a league where routine is so important, the Bills have been unable to get into a normal practice schedule.
The fact that they won four of those six - with the losses coming on the road to two of the best teams in the NFL in the Ravens and Texans - and sit atop the AFC East is undoubtedly an impressive achievement.
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But it’s also in the past and there can be no resting on laurels, not in the NFL where, contrary to the opinion of some, there are no easy games or sure wins. The Bills host the Tennessee Titans at Highmark Stadium Sunday and while on the surface this looks like their least daunting game to date - the oddsmakers in Las Vegas certainly think so - Sean McDermott knows better.
“They've got a talented roster when you look not just defensively, which the numbers speak for themselves, but offensively as well with their receiving corps, running back position, and so on,” McDermott said. “So a big challenge for us at home. We look forward to getting back at home, but we can't take that for granted. We've got to put in the work this week.”
Here’s my preview of the game:
The Bills need Amari Cooper to hit the ground running
Or, in this case, hit the ground receiving. Now that Cooper has been on the practice field for a couple days, the big questions heading into Sunday’s game against the Titans are these: Can he play? And if so, can he contribute in a meaningful way?
The answers should be yes and yes, but as is his way, McDermott was taking the cautious route Wednesday when it came to expectations for Cooper in his Buffalo debut, saying, “I think you have to manage him regardless of Sunday or beyond. We'll see how he goes this week and we'll see how we go. Again, it's never about one person or one player, it's about the team. I thought we were in a good rhythm the other night on offense and continuing with that rhythm.”
Well, whatever “rhythm” McDermott was talking about in the victory over the Jets is certainly debatable. In that game, Josh Allen completed nine passes to his wide receivers for 97 yards. There were six wide receivers across the league in Week 6 who individually had more than 97 yards including two who played against the Bills, Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard.
The production the Bills got in the first six games from their wide receivers was inadequate which is why Brandon Beane knew he had to make a move. Adding Cooper to the mix should immediately increase the viability of the passing game, and there’s no time but the present to get Cooper involved.
Yes, as Beane said, onboarding a wide receiver is “Probably one of the harder (positions) unless they’ve played in that exact system before. You don’t just walk in and just plop him in and say ‘go.’ He’s got to get up to speed, our calls, our checks, alignments for each play. So it’ll take a little time. I think we need to be fair to him from that standpoint.”
But Cooper thinks he can do it. “I think I'm a pretty cerebral guy, at least cerebral enough to learn the playbook as fast as I can so I can go out there and get lined up and just run routes, catch the ball, get open,” Cooper said. “At the end of the day, it’s just football.”
Given where he just came from, the train wreck that is Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns, the Bills are going to get a motivated player, one who will be energized now that he’s playing for the team on the Eastern shore of Lake Erie that has a chance to go somewhere as opposed to the team on the Western shore that is about to drown in said lake.
“It's just that feeling of having a fresh beginning, a new start, a blank canvas that you get to control your destiny,” Cooper said. “We weren't having the best season over there in Cleveland, but obviously I'm not there anymore. The goal of playing in the NFL is to win, so to come in and be on a winning team, it's obviously a good feeling.”
Titans defense is good, but it hasn’t been tested
Tennessee comes to town with some gaudy defensive rankings including No. 1 in the NFL in total yards allowed per game (248.8), passing yards (137.0), and yards per play (4.3). It also ranks third in completion percentage (58.7), fifth in third-down percentage (31.8%) and sixth in rushing yards allowed per play (4.0).
However, these numbers have been compiled against some pretty weak competition including games against Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams in his NFL debut in Week 1, and three backup QBs (Malik Willis of the Packers, Tyler Huntley of the Dolphins, and Joe Flacco of the Colts). Facing Allen is an entirely different matter.
Still, the Titans have strength at all three levels so nothing figures to come easy for the Bills. On the D-line they have 366-pound rookie T’Vonde Sweat and 305-pound longtime stud Jeffery Simmons who have been excellent against the run, and on the edge they have Harold Landry, Arden Key and Sebastian Joseph-Day who have combined for six sacks and 28 pressures.
At linebacker, Ernest Jones came over from the Rams and Kenneth Murray came from the Chargers and they each have a team-high 39 tackles. And then in a very good secondary, from the Chiefs came L’Jarius Snead who has been a thorn in the Bills’ side for years, rookie Jarvis Brownlee is graded by Pro Football Focus as the Titans best pass defender so far, Roger McCreary is a solid nickel corner, and the safety tandem of Amani Hooker and Quandre Diggs brings vast experience. Even with Cooper, the Bills, as has been the case all season, will be challenged to get open.
“They’re a high-effort group and they’ve got some real players over there,” Allen said. “We are going to have our hands full. It starts with me. Trying to get the ball into our playmakers hands and just trying to make as many plays as possible and taking care of the football. They don’t allow a lot of yards, they don’t allow a lot of points.”
What has helped the Titans’ run defense is that they are No. 1 in stuff percentage (plays of zero or negative yards) at 28.4% and that has created some difficult down-and-distance situations for their opponents. However, the Bills’ offensive line gouged the Jets last week and Ray Davis had 97 yards. Davis is battling an injury that popped up Thursday in practice so now his status for the game is cloudy, but James Cook is expected to return and if Ty Johnson winds up being the backup, the Bills should be able to find some success.
Another thing working in the Bills’ favor is that the Titans have not had an effective pass rush. Their team sack percentage (5.7%) is seventh-lowest in the league and their 47 pressures are the fewest in the NFL. Allen should be able to stand, scan and deliver.
Titans QB Will Levis has been a bit of a mess
As stout as the Titans have been on defense, they are equally wimpy on offense, and much of that has to do with the below-standard play of second-year QB Will Levis. The Titans average 135 passing yards per game which is second-worst in the NFL ahead of only the Patriots, Levis' eight turnovers lead the NFL, and the Titans have scored on just 30.5% of their possessions which ranks 26th.
New Titans coach Brian Callahan previously coached Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow, but he has his work cut out for him trying to turn Levis into a productive player. Three of Tennessee’s four losses have been of the one-score variety and one of the big reasons why the Titans haven’t pulled games out is because Levis has not come through in the passing game.
“You've got to throw the ball in the NFL to win,” Callahan said after Levis threw for just 95 yards last week in a 20-17 loss to the Colts. “You can run the ball really well and we do. But we've got to find ways when the game is tight and throw it to make enough plays to give us a chance to win the game.”
And it’s not like Levis doesn’t have help. The WR group includes established veterans DeAndre Hopkins, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, Treylon Burks and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. That’s better than what Allen has in Buffalo, even with the addition of Cooper.
Levis has been sacked at a rate of 10.1% which is third-highest in the league, so it seems like an opportunity for the Bills’ pass rush, which needs to find more consistency, to get after it. The Bills’ 16 sacks rank 11th, but their pressure rate of 30.2% is eighth-lowest. The expected return of DT Ed Oliver should help, AJ Epenesa coming off a two-sack game needs to keep coming, and Greg Rousseau, who leads the team with 23 pressures, has to find his way back to the QB as he hasn’t had a sack since getting three in Week 1.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 27, Titans 13
Back home for the first time in nearly a month, the Bills should be able to handle their business against a Tennessee team that is still finding its way under Callahan. Levis’ struggles should only be magnified against a Buffalo defense that is now almost back to full health with the return last week of Taron Johnson and Taylor Rapp, plus the expected return Sunday of Ed Oliver. And on offense, assuming Cook returns, the Bills should be able to move the ball on the ground even if Davis ends up missing, and that should open things up in the pass game for Allen.
Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule
Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28
Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, W 31-10
Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, W 47-10
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, L, 10-35
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, L, 20-23
Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, W 23-20
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEK
Week 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
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This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Titans predictions, keys to NFL Week 7 game