ORCHARD PARK - Sean McDermott was in a playful mood the day after his Buffalo Bills slobber-knockered the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday afternoon.

That day, the Seahawks drove into the red zone on three occasions, and they came away with just 10 points, the only 10 points they would score which happened to be 21 fewer than the Bills.

Allowing just one touchdown continued a season-long trend of stinginess for the Bills’ defense as the opposition has scored a TD on just 42.8% of their red zone trips which ranks the Bills sixth-best in the league through eight weeks. Last year, they ranked 15th allowing a TD 55.3% of the time, so a sizable improvement.

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As they have battled through a spate of injuries on the defensive side, it’s quite a statement that the Bills have been able to stand up and protect their end zone the way they have and McDermott had a good reason why.

“Well, the play caller is a lot better than last year,” he said with a smile, referring to the fact that Bobby Babich is now doing that instead of McDermott who served as both head coach and defensive coordinator in 2023. “Yeah, the play-caller, you can start there.”

Turning serious, he added, “The coaches are doing a good job of putting a good game plan together. And then the players execute in playing physical in the run game, and then the rush and coverage working together has been an effective force.”

Sunday, the red zone defense will get another test with the Miami Dolphins invading Highmark Stadium. The Dolphins’ offense currently sit 29th in red zone touchdown percentage (44.4%) but let’s remember why that is - quarterback Tua Tagovailoa missed 4 ½ games due to the concussion he suffered against the Bills in Week 2.

He was back against Arizona last week and the Dolphins scored TDs on three of their four red zone visits, so this will be a key aspect to pay attention to as the Bills look to put a further stranglehold on the AFC East.

In Seattle, the game turned on a humongous red zone stand in the second quarter when the Seahawks began a drive at the Buffalo 7 and on four plays failed to get into the end zone, coming away with no points.

“Being on the goal line, preventing points, no matter the situation, no matter the time, if you can keep points off the board when they have a gimme situation like that, that's excellent,” said edge rusher AJ Epenesa. “It's just kind of like a bend-don't-break mentality. They're going to get some plays and they're going to get down to the red zone, so our mentality is field goals and takeaways. We go into it with that mindset and just try to be extra disciplined and be smart about our rushes and about our coverage, knowing that if you give something up here, it's most likely going to be points.”

Here’s my preview of the game:

The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Tua Tagovailoa

Mismatch is probably the better characterization. In their head-to-head meetings, Allen is 7-1 against Tua, part of a sterling 12-2 record the Bills’ QB has compiled against the Dolphins dating back to his rookie year in 2018. In his eight games against the Bills, Tua has completed just 61.8% of his passes, has averaged just 200 yards per game and 6.78 per attempt, his TD-to-pick rate is terrible at seven to 10, and most importantly, he has suffered two concussions.

“That’s a great question,” Tua said when he was asked Wednesday why he and Miami have struggled so much against Buffalo. “All and all, you’ve got to find a way to beat them regardless of what that looks like. That’s what throughout those eight times that I’ve played them and the seven that we’ve lost, that’s just been the recipe for it. We just couldn’t find a way to do that. Here’s another opportunity for us to do that.”

After his latest concussion, the Dolphins were abysmal on offense in his absence as they lost three of four games while averaging just 10 points, but he was sharp against Arizona and the Dolphins scored a season-high 27 points. With all the weapons he has, danger is always lurking and the Bills know this.

“I think they’re back to being that offense that we know - so explosive, so dynamic, so potent in what they do and how they do things,” McDermott said.

Added safety Taylor Rapp, “Their offense is a whole new identity with Tua back. I guess that’s the tricky part of game planning this week – trying to figure out exactly what their offense is gonna look like. But we’ve had a lot of history with Tua playing and stuff like that, so you know, just hopefully put together a good game plan and go out there and execute.”

In Allen’s mind, his continuous torture of the Dolphins isn’t the product of one specific thing, “Other than just trying to put extra emphasis on winning games in our division. And make no mistake about it, they're a really good football team. Obviously getting their quarterback Tua back helps. I know their record doesn’t indicate it, but they're playing really good football right now, so we got to be ready for whatever they can throw at us.”

Buffalo Bills who should impact the game

▶ WR Khalil Shakir: The status of newly-acquired Amari Cooper is at best questionable due to a wrist injury, so if he can’t play, Shakir’s role becomes all the more important. He’s without question the Bills’ most valuable WR and he leads the NFL with a 94.7 catch percentage which is crazy good. The Dolphins could be without SS Jevon Holland, a player who has often played well against the Bills, and NCB Kader Kahou, so Shakir could have a big day.

▶ RG O’Cyrus Torrence: One of the keys to the Bills being able to run will be the second-year pro going against DT Calais Campbell, the ageless 17-year veteran who has been one of Miami’s best defenders all season. More times than not he has lined up over the RG so Torrence, who has struggled this season, needs to hold up both in the run game and pass protection.

▶ DE Von Miller: He returns from a four-game suspension and with that time off to rest, Miller could be raring to go off the edge. The Bills haven’t been great in the pass rush as they are middle of the road in pressure rate and sack percentage, and they probably won’t improve their numbers in this game. Miami’s offensive line has been a strength, and Tagovailoa typically gets the ball out quick, but Miller could provide a little extra juice when the Bills use him on passing downs.

▶ CB Rasul Douglas: He has played as well as any CB in the league this season, and so has his partner, Christian Benford. As is always the case against Miami, the challenge is huge facing Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, but the Bills have fared well in recent games, largely because of Douglas and Benford.

▶ LB Dorian Williams: The Bills’ leading tackler has improved greatly from his wildly inconsistent rookie season, but this is a dangerous spot for him. Last week the Bills utilized Cam Lewis in dime defense and took Williams off the field because his pass coverage remains an issue. If the Dolphins can attack Williams on early downs with their short passing game, utilizing their speedy backs DeVon Achane and Raheem Mostert, they could find some big plays, or at least move-the-sticks plays.

Miami Dolphins who should impact the game

▶ RB DeVon Achane: He has become Miami’s main man in the backfield, even now that Mostert is back from injury. Achane hurt the Bills in the first game as he rushed for 96 yards and caught seven passes for 69 yards and a touchdown. He has electric speed, so the Bills have to keep him from getting to the perimeter, and when he catches the ball, rallying to the ball to get him on the ground before he gets moving will be vital.

▶ WR Jaylen Waddle: Hill is the more explosive receiver, but Waddle can do damage when he gets in a groove. He has the identical yards per catch average that Hill has, 12.2, and his catch percentage is 72.2 compared to Hill’s 60.0. Yes, some of that has to do with Hill being targeted on deeper throws as his average depth of target is five yards more than Waddle’s, but be wary of Waddle when Tua needs a hot read underneath.

▶ RT Austin Jackson: Even with Miller returning, the Bills shouldn’t just hand him his preferred spot at left end because in his absence, Greg Rousseau drew most of the snaps on that side and he was a terror. Perhaps it’ll be a time share there, but the Bills must take advantage of Jackson who has allowed 14 pressures this year, most of any Dolphins offensive lineman.

▶ CB Jalen Ramsey: Miami’s secondary is banged up, plus it has ex-Bill Jordan Poyer playing at a level far below anything we saw during his outstanding tenure with Buffalo. Ramsey is the best coverage defender the Dolphins have, and because of injuries, they’ve had to use Ramsey in the slot and you may see that Sunday as they try to contain Shakir.

▶ LB Jordyn Brooks: No one on Miami’s defense has played more snaps (415) and he leads the team with 55 tackles and has 11 QB pressures. The Dolphins have struggled a bit against the run, though, so against James Cook and Buffalo’s emerging offensive line, Brooks needs to be very good, especially if excellent DT Zach Sieler is again sidelined as he missed last week’s game.

Sal’s prediction: Bills 30, Dolphins 19

The Bills have owned Miami like no other team since McDermott came to Buffalo. He’s 14-2 all-time against the Dolphins with two of his victories on the road clinching either a playoff berth (2017) or a division title (2023). He’s 12-2 with Allen as his QB, and he has never lost to them at Highmark Stadium.

That probably won’t change Sunday, but one thing to be leery of is Miami will come to town as a desperate team, knowing that if it doesn’t end its misery against the Bills, falling to 2-6 could essentially end any hopes it has of getting back into the wild-card race. Still, the Bills are the better team, playing at home, and they fully understand that while they’re currently in great shape in the AFC East, playoff seeding is tremendously important so they need to keep stacking wins.

Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule

• Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, W 34-28

• Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, W 31-10

• Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, W 47-10

• Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, L, 10-35

• Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6,  at Houston Texans, L, 20-23

• Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, W 23-20

• Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, W 34-10

• Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, W 31-10

• Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.

• Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.

• Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.

• Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEK

• Week 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.

• Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.

• Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.

• Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.

• Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.

• Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Dolphins prediction, keys to NFL Week 9 game