2024 Fantasy football versions of 2023's biggest surprises
Is there a feeling more satisfying than when your fantasy football leaguemates head to the waiver wire or look to make a lowball offer on a rising player ... but they can’t — because you already snagged him and know you’ve got this year’s potential breakout star?
Finding those big surprises isn’t an easy task. Each year, we search for the new version of last year’s successes. We often have the blueprint for what type of player we should be looking for, but what truly made the 2023 surprises a success and how can that be applied to 2024 players?
Let’s break down key 2023 breakout players and apply their characteristics to find potential 2024 diamonds in the rough!
2023 Surprise QB: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Finding the 2024 version of Jordan Love is an odd passion of mine. Why? Because I called the 2023 version of Jordan Love!
There was a bit of bias in there. After all, I am a Packers fan. But, there was strong reasoning behind it. Identifying Jordan Love as a strong sleeper pick in 2023 was heavily based on his familiarity with the offense. Unfortunately, there’s no true comp in 2024.
The vast majority of young, low-ranked quarterbacks will have new offensive coordinators in 2024. So, we’ll have to bend the rules a bit for this comparison.
2024's surprise QB is ... Will Levis, Tennessee Titans (and maybe Bryce Young?)
This comparison may make you feel a little uncomfortable, but, my first instinct was Bryce Young. And, I somewhat stand by that. I truly believe we’ll see solid improvement from the Panthers’ offense as a whole under Dave Canales, particularly with the Panthers’ defense downgraded and the offense likely chasing points.
Young is with a coach who has an excellent track record of pulling out the best in wayward quarterbacks. The only problem with this comp is that touchdowns played a significant role in Love’s surge. While I’m very optimistic Young has a bounce-back year, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where he achieves 32 passing touchdowns, plus multiple rushing touchdowns. Young is more of a Superflex-only surprise.
Instead, perhaps we turn our attention to Tennessee?
I was initially very critical of the Tony Pollard contract, but combined with other signings and trades, Tennessee’s offseason efforts were rather impressive. They did a complete overhaul with additions across both sides of the ball and a brand new WR1 in Calvin Ridley, placing Will Levis in an optimal scenario with a new offensive-minded head coach.
Levis earned the starting role in midseason of 2023 after a Ryan Tannehill injury and immediately popped. He threw four passing touchdowns in his starting debut but, after that initial game, he had just four passing touchdowns in all of his remaining games combined. Aside from the change in coaching staff, Levis has all the other Jordan Love characteristics we’re looking for — a live arm, mobility, a sneaky supporting cast with the addition of Ridley and Tyler Boyd, plus DeAndre Hopkins when healthy. Adding in two excellent receiving backs could be the secret sauce for touchdown equity for Levis, making him a solid candidate to be 2024’s Jordan Love.
2023 Surprise RB: Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
It feels like an eternity ago but the Rams entered the 2023 season with Cam Akers as their lead back and it took Akers approximately one quarter to lose the job. Williams took over as the lead back and dominated in an impressive fashion, finishing as the RB2 in half-PPR average points per game behind only Christian McCaffrey.
Williams’ dominance stemmed from two specific stats: an impressive yards per carry mark of 5.02 and a league-leading 21.7 touches per game. When looking for the 2024 version of Williams, we’re looking for a high-upside backup who would step into an aggressive workload and wouldn’t be subjected to committee work.
Predicting Blake Corum as the Kyren Williams of 2024 would be low-hanging fruit. We’re better than that!
2024's surprise RB is ... Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
Before J.J. McCarthy’s injury, Ty Chandler was an excellent candidate to be 2024 Kyren Williams. Minnesota’s offense is from the Sean McVay coaching tree. They traditionally utilize a three-down back. And, Chandler sits behind a near-30-year-old back who missed significant time in 2023 due to injury. But, I’m concerned this offense will offer limited goal-line opportunities.
Our surprise could be Chase Brown.
While Brown isn’t ranked as low as Williams’ was heading into 2023, he does share several qualities. Many expect a 1A/1B split between Brown and Zack Moss but the Bengals have been a three-down back team under Zac Taylor. Moss is expected to lead the way, but confidence in his starting role is at an all-time low. Similar to Williams, Brown is a second-year back who can outshine the competition and earn significant touches in a strong offense that will provide ample goal-line opportunities. Brown offers strong receiving upside and, if afforded a three-down back role, would absolutely have top-12 upside.
2023 Surprise WR: Nico Collins, Houston Texans
When it comes to wide receivers, everyone wants to know who the next Puka Nacua is. But, what I’m seeking is the next Nico Collins. Puka’s record-setting season is extremely difficult to replicate for late-round rookies. Finding a third-year breakout ascending with a new quarterback is a real more realistic path.
Collins had a decent amount of buzz heading into his rookie season but was ultimately held back for two years with poor quarterback play. With the new coaching staff and addition of C.J. Stroud, Collins thrived as the WR6 in half-PPR average points per game, despite having to contend with fellow breakout, Tank Dell.
There are actually quite a few Year 3 players set to break out in 2024 whom I discussed in an article last week. My guy Drake London qualifies, but considering his ADP is through the roof, a breakout wouldn’t exactly be surprising. But, there’s another third-year receiver who’s being overlooked and could lead his team in targets.
Could Romeo Doubs be 2024 Nico Collins?
2024's surprise WR is ... Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
Unlike Collins, Doubs isn’t getting an upgrade in quarterback. Jordan Love should see an increase in overall performance with a full year under his belt as a starter, but there’s another reason why Doubs is a solid comparison to Collins. Like Collins, fantasy managers are underestimating his ability to be a team’s WR1.
Between Doubs, Christian Watson and Jayden Reed, Doubs is the lowest-ranked receiver among Yahoo analysts. To make matters worse, Doubs is the fourth-ranked receiver in ADP with Dontayvion Wicks being slightly ahead of him. When someone who isn’t even a starter is being drafted before you, the disrespect is real.
Despite the lack of confidence from fantasy managers, beat reporters have consistently praised Doubs as the Packers’ standout receiver this offseason. There’s a clear connection between Love and Doubs, solid usage in the red zone and no reason why Doubs can’t build on his 2023 numbers.
In 2023, Doubs was the team’s target leader with 96, barely edging out Reed by two targets. Reed had more receptions but Doubs had a higher ADOT so the discrepancy in receptions compared to targets was logical. Doubs and Reed also tied for most receiving touchdowns with eight. There’s one more key statistic - Doubs led the receiver corps in snaps and it wasn’t even close. Doubs had a total of 845 offensive snaps and the closest receiver was Reed with 578. Doubs had the most consistent snap count percentage throughout the entire season and it was never affected by injury to another player. Other receivers fluctuated heavily in relation to Watson.
Collins’ 2023 WR6 finish would be a bit aggressive, but Doubs is in an excellent position to well outperform his ADP.