Week 2 Fantasy Football Booms & Busts: Alvin Kamara, Saints show strength few saw coming
It's only been two weeks, but we all would like a few fantasy football mulligans. And maybe we owe some apologies, too.
I certainly regret fading Alvin Kamara, who looks fantastic. And I suspect I overlooked Derek Carr, who's better than many realize. But perhaps the biggest miss of all was underestimating Klint Kubiak, the new offensive coordinator who's cooking for the Saints.
It wasn't headline news when the Saints routed Carolina last week, but New Orleans shook the world Sunday with a 44-19 beatdown at Dallas. The New Orleans offense was dominant right away, scoring on all five of its first-half possessions. Kamara ultimately finished with four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) and 180 total yards, while Carr threw for two scores and ran for a third.
Kubiak's fingerprints are all over this surging offense. He's introduced regular pre-snap motion and play-action passing to a team that oddly ignored it last season. The Saints have also found a way to coach up an offensive line that was considered one of the worst in the league all summer.
Kamara looks like a totally different player, too. Remember, his longest run last year was a mere 17 yards, and his longest catch was only 25 yards. He's already produced a bunch of splash plays for 2024, including a 57-yard touchdown catch Sunday where he wasn't touched. Give Kubiak an assist on that call; Kamara was galloping through open space.
Carr and the passing game could have gone bonkers Week 2, had Dallas put up more of a fight. Carr only attempted 16 passes, though he still made 243 yards on his 11 completions. Speed merchant Rashid Shaheed caught all four of his targets, including a 70-yard touchdown in the first half (another hat tip, play action). Chris Olave (five touches, 88 yards) had a respectable day, missing a touchdown by one yard. Juwon Johnson didn't show up in the summary, but he had a touchdown catch negated by a penalty.
Olave's touchdown rate is likely to normalize soon; he's too good. But perhaps this offense doesn't have much use for hybrid Taysom Hill. He's handled a modest 10 touches through two weeks and left in the second half with a chest injury. Even when Hill is healthy, this Saints group doesn't mind using Kamara around the goal line, which is a departure from previous offenses. The pro-Hill case was always about expected touchdown equity, but that basket looks close to empty at the moment.
New Orleans figures to be in some high-scoring games moving forward. Over the next four weeks, the Saints face Philadelphia, Atlanta, Kansas City and Tampa Bay.
Get your popcorn ready. Good times on Bourbon Street.
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Several favorites fall flat
Dallas wasn't the only big favorite to fall flat in the early window. Baltimore lost to the Raiders, the second straight week of Survivor chaos. The Niners were outplayed and outscored at Minnesota. And the Lions were also upset, a 20-16 loss to Tampa Bay.
It's shocking Detroit gave this game away. The Lions outgained the Buccaneers by a 463-216 margin, but left too many points on the field. Detroit only punched in one touchdown, and squirreled away a likely field-goal chance in the second quarter due to sloppiness. Although Amon-Ra St. Brown (who was banged up at the end of the game), Jameson Williams and Jahmyr Gibbs all had respectable days on volume, none of them found the end zone.
Jared Goff was mostly reduced to underneath throws (5.6 YPA) and had a couple of critical interceptions. David Montgomery struggled to find running lanes, though a short touchdown run saved his fantasy day. Sam LaPorta has yet to break loose in 2024, stuck on eight catches for 58 yards through two games.
What's especially frustrating about the slow Detroit push is that it's come at home, where the Lions usually pile up the points. Maybe OC Ben Johnson will find some answers next week at Arizona. The Lions then return home for a Week 4 date against Seattle, and perhaps the early Week 5 bye might be well-slotted for this group.
Better days should be ahead. There's too much talent and continuity in this offensive huddle.
Booms
Let's have a look around the league. In other booms:
Marvin Harrison Jr.: A few days ago, Kyler Murray said it wasn't his job to feed the rookie targets. Alas, that's exactly what Murray did early and often in Week 2, and Harrison Jr. took advantage, torching the Rams for a pair of first-quarter touchdowns. The only reason Harrison didn't get past eight targets is because the Rams were not competitive — Murray only threw 21 passes for the day. But Harrison's 4-130-2 afternoon was the sounding of a trumpet: he's clearly arrived.
Malik Nabers: He will always have his work cut out for him playing with Daniel Jones, but Nabers certainly made for a smash play against the shaky Washington defense. And Nabers didn't miss his opportunity, a juicy 10-127-1 line on a whopping 18 targets. All summer the Giants talked about targeting Nabers heavily every week; this didn't happen in the opener, but the correction was made. Nabers had a rising ADP all summer, but he's still capable of being a profit-payer.
J.K. Dobbins: We know the Chargers want to run the ball to set up the run — that's life with Jim Harbaugh — and Dobbins is making the plan work. Dobbins and Gus Edwards shared the work evenly in an early victory at Carolina, but it was Dobbins (17-131-1) with the better final line. To no one's surprise, both were ignored in the passing game — Dobbins had one short catch, Edwards was not targeted. The sledding could be tough at Pittsburgh next week, and perhaps the Chargers will be chasing the game versus Kansas City in Week 4. But if Dobbins can stay healthy, he's capable of going down as one of 2024's right answers.
Sam Darnold: Has he finally found the right head coach to unlock his latent ability? Darnold was excellent in the Week 1 win at the Giants, and Week 2's upset of San Francisco was even more impressive, given the opponent. Darnold has the arm strength to threaten all parts of the field, and enough athleticism and moxie to extend plays. So long as Justin Jefferson stays healthy — it was scary to see him leave Sunday with a quad injury — I'm going to back Darnold, who's looking comfortable in Kevin O'Connell's crisp passing scheme.
Busts
Of course on every Sunday, we have a few busts:
Anthony Richardson: He's capable of an amazing highlight on one snap and a mistake of inexperience on the next. We saw a lot of that in Week 1's fun loss to Houston, but there was little fun about the Colts being upset by the Green Bay skeleton crew Sunday. The Packers were able to contain Richardson as a runner for most of the day, and too many of his downfield throws were off-target (especially when Michael Pittman Jr. was the option; he had just 3-21-0 on seven looks). The Shane Steichen-Richardson combo is still likely to succeed, but this week reminded us to try to be realistic with our timetables
Amari Cooper: Cleveland's upset win at Jacksonville was mostly about the defense. Deshaun Watson managed just 5.5 YPA and he struggled to establish any rapport with Cooper (3-11-0, eight targets). Perhaps the Browns will have to steal from the Pittsburgh blueprint — try to win games with defense and ball control, and hide the quarterback whenever possible.
Rachaad White: Although he was a non-factor in the win at Detroit (10-18 rushing, 1-5 receiving), we can positively spin much of it. The Detroit defensive front was amazing all day (five Aidan Hutchinson sacks; just 3.0 YPC allowed) and Bucky Irving was also bottled up (seven carries, 22 yards). The key for White will be holding onto this job into the second half of the season, when Tampa Bay's easier schedule kicks in. The harder matchups are mostly in the first half of the year.
Isaiah Likely: All week we wondered what the right answer was in the Baltimore tight end room. For Week 2, I guess the answer was "nobody." Mark Andrews posted a passable 4-51-0 line on five targets, while Likely came back to earth with a 2-26-0 return on three looks. Ironically, Baltimore's last chance to get into field-goal range on the final drive was a near-miss to Likely, a pass on the sidelines that was an eyelash too high. Zay Flowers (11 targets, 7-91-1) was Lamar Jackson's first read all day, and the others were fighting for scraps.
Speed Round
• If Sam LaPorta ripped up all the rookie tight end rules, Brock Bowers lit them on fire. Bowers is the player Kyle Pitts was supposed to be.
• Maybe Bryce Young is unfixable, but the smartest move for the moment would be to temporary sit him down, let Andy Dalton play a few weeks. I assure you this, the Panthers wouldn't be any worse. And maybe a mental and physical break would help Young, long-term.
• How many teams are trying to win by hiding the quarterback and letting the defense control the game? Pittsburgh and Cleveland for sure. The Patriots. The Bears might steer into this plan. Raiders, Broncos too.
• Although the Steelers are running a conservative offense — and by the way, I'd leave Justin Fields in there — they are finding ways to get George Pickens involved. Don't let the quiet Week 2 line throw you off, Pickens made plenty of impactful downfield plays. Listen to Ian Hartitz:
George Pickens with a 2-29-0 dud in the box score but:
-51 yard catch over Pat Surtain nullified on a hold
-6 yard TD nullified on OPI by Van Jefferson
-Drew a 37 yard DPI on Surtain pic.twitter.com/tOgvX2zRrp— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) September 16, 2024
• It took a week, but Ryan Grubb found the Jaxon Smith-Njigba skeleton key. Wheels up. All four of the young, signature Ohio State receivers had better games in Week 2 (though it was close to a wash with Garrett Wilson). I'd still trade for Chris Olave tomorrow.
• Remember that old joke about Adam Vinatieri wanting a fantasy league counting just kickers? The 2024 season is his jam. It doesn't seem possible, but the NFL is 35-for-39 on kicks 50-and-up this year. It's been *two freaking weeks.* I believe the player record for 50-plus kicks in a season is 10, Justin Tucker and Blair Walsh of all people. Ka'imi Fairbairn already has six.
• Tony Pollard looks like one of 2024's right answers. His burst is back. He's also capable in the pass game, so there's no risk of being eliminated by poor game scripts. He's collected 41 touches in two weeks against just 16 for Tajae Spears, and Pollard has been far more efficient with his opportunites, too.
