ORCHARD PARK - One of the fastest ways to make yourself look foolish is to make predictions about a football season, in this case the Buffalo Bills upcoming 2024 season.

Really, predictions about anything can make you look like a dummy if they don’t come true, but it’s particularly dangerous in football because there are so many variables that can change outcomes, especially injuries.

So that’s my qualifier. If I had a crystal ball, it would be a whole lot easier to do this, but since I don’t, I’m setting myself up for ridicule. That’s OK, I’m a big boy with thick skin.

Here are six predictions as the Bills get ready to open their 65th season Sunday at Highmark Stadium against the Arizona Cardinals.

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1. Josh Allen could complete 70% of his passes

Last year, the only quarterback to reach that plateau was Cincinnati backup Jake Browning, but that was largely because he started only seven games in place of injured Joe Burrow. For a full-time starter, Dallas’ Dak Prescott led the way at 69.5%.

Allen’s career-best figure is 69.2 in 2020, and last year he was at 66.5 which ranked eighth among starters who played at least 16 games. So if Allen were to complete 70%, that would be a huge jump and it might be enough to lead the NFL.

Why might it happen? I think the Bills are going to utilize a quicker, short passing game this year with more balls to the backs and tight ends, but also to wideouts like Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman who are better suited to short throws with yards after catch potential. In other words, easier passes to complete.

But perhaps the biggest reason why Allen’s completion percentage should rise is this: For four years he often force fed the ball to Stefon Diggs, and that was a perfectly good idea because Diggs was great. However, look at Diggs’ catch percentages. Great in 2020 at 76.5%, but thereafter they slipped to 62.8, 70.1 and 66.9.

And the other starting receiver, Gabe Davis, never had a catch percentage higher than the 56.5 he had as a rookie.

This year, Allen will be throwing a huge amount of balls to Shakir whose 87.5 catch percentage led the NFL, and to Dalton Kincaid who was at 80.2% as a rookie. And the guy who will probably see the third-most targets is Samuel, and across his seven-year NFL career he has 65.4 catch percentage.

2. James Cook will not rush for 1,000 yards

Cook is coming off a season in which he ran for 1,122 yards which was fourth-best in the NFL, and he was one of only 12 backs who reached the time-honored gold standard of 1,000 yards for a season.

Of course 1,000 yards isn’t what it used to be compared to a 12-game season in Jim Brown’s heyday, a 14-game season in O.J. Simpson’s, or even a 16-game season when the NFL’s all-time leading rusher, Emmitt Smith played. In a 17-game schedule, you only need to average 58.8 yards per game to get to 1,000.

So if Cook doesn’t make it, should that be considered disappointing? No, and here’s why. I think the Bills are going to scale back his touches this season and try to keep him fresher for what they hope will be a playoff run, and they have the ammunition to do so in backup running backs Ty Johnson and Ray Davis.

Last year, if you take Cook’s 179-yard explosion against the Cowboys out of the mix because it certainly was an outlier, in the other seven games from Nov. 26 through the postseason, he averaged just 56.4 yards and his per carry average was 3.55.

I can see a scenario where the Bills maximize Cook’s carries by taking some burden off him using Johnson and Davis, particularly Davis. Last season, aging Latavius Murray gained 85 yards in the final nine games counting the postseason, so the entire running game was on a worn down Cook, or Allen’s designed runs and scrambles.

3. Greg Rousseau will reach double digits in sacks

The 2021 first-round pick has been a good player for the Bills in his first three seasons, good enough that the team exercised the fifth-year option on his rookie contract so he’s tied to them through 2025.

However, while Rousseau has 17 career sacks, the time has come for him to be the primary pass rusher who the opposing offense has to identify on each play. He sure looked the part in the preseason game against the Steelers when he was in on three sacks, and that should manifest itself once the games start to count this week.

Leonard Floyd’s 10.5 sacks are gone, Von Miller is no longer playing at a Hall of Fame level or even a Pro Bowl level, and AJ Epenesa does his best work as an edge setter against the run and as someone who alters throws with his ability to bat down passes. Rousseau has to be the sack master and this is the year he’ll get to at least 10.

4. Terrel Bernard will play at a Pro Bowl level

Now, whether that will be enough to actually get Bernard voted onto the AFC Pro Bowl roster, who knows. The voting is silly and is based mostly on favoritism so chances are that even though I think he’ll deserve it, he probably won’t get the honor.

Clearly he nor the Bills will care if Bernard plays the way he did in 2023, or perhaps even better which is definitely a possibility.

Bernard was the Bills’ breakout player last year, his first as a starter. He led the team with 143 tackles and six turnovers (three interceptions, three fumble recoveries). He also had 6.5 sacks and broke up five passes. It was a stunning performance, and when the Bills didn’t have him for the divisional round playoff loss to the Chiefs due to an injury, it was starkly noticeable.

5. Spencer Brown will not get a contract extension

There has been speculation that the Bills would want to lock up the 2021 third-round pick to a second contract before he’s eligible to hit free agency after the 2024 season.

This is based on the fact that the mountainous 6-foot-8, 310-pound offensive tackle had the best of his three seasons with the Bills in 2023, the first time he was able to play every game, and his Pro Football Focus grades were up sharply, especially as a pass protector.

But Brown underwent another offseason surgery, this one on his shoulder, and unless he continues his ascent in performance, I think the Bills will move on because they seem to like swing tackle Ryan Van Demark and they kept rookie sixth-round pick Tylan Grable on the 53-man roster. Both seem to be developmental candidates and one of them could possibly become the starter in 2025.

Re-signing Brown would be costly, and Van Demark and Grable would represent much more cost-friendly investments.

6. The Bills will win a fifth straight AFC East title

I’m a little wishy-washy on this because I do believe this will be a difficult task. The Jets are the biggest threat, especially if Aaron Rodgers can play anywhere close to his previous level. They have a terrific defense and they’ve upgraded the offensive line plus added weapons with veteran WR Mike Williams joining Garrett Wilson, and rookie RB Braelon Allen joining starter Breece Hall.

Miami took a few hits to the roster, but it’s speed is ultrasonic on offense and my sense is that Tua Tagovailoa, after leading the NFL in passing yards last season, is really starting to establish himself as a star.

The Patriots will finish last, but they aren’t going 4-13 this season, and if rookie No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye flourishes once he becomes the starter, those two games against New England in the final three weeks, which could be huge for the Bills, will be tough challenges.

All that said, Allen is the best player in the division, he still has strong weapons of his own, and Sean McDermott’s defense - even in a transition year - will still create problems for the opposition. Eleven wins is doable, and that should be enough to get it done.

Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills: 6 bold predictions for the 2024 NFL season