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Resetting where Memphis football sits in AAC, College Football Playoff races at midseason

Memphis football is halfway through its season.

It doesn't feel like it has been that long, given the choppy past few weeks that included a bye week and then a rescheduled game against South Florida. Memphis sits at 5-1 (1-1 American Athletic Conference) after Saturday's win over the Bulls in Orlando.

The season obviously hasn't gone as planned for the Tigers, who are on the outside looking in of both the AAC title race and the Group of Five spot in the College Football Playoff. But Memphis is still in it.

So, with six games (at least) left to play, let's reset the title race.

The AAC title race goes through . . . Army and Navy?

Memphis was picked to win the AAC in the preseason media poll. Conventional wisdom was that Tulane, South Florida and UTSA would be the other top teams in the conference.

The Green Wave have mostly lived up to expectations, and they're still undefeated in the conference (2-0). Memphis (1-1) travels to New Orleans on Thanksgiving. That means the Tigers control their own destiny relative to Tulane, and all they have to do is win out to finish ahead of them.

It's not that simple with Army and Navy, which were picked to finish fifth and 11th, respectively, in the preseason poll. Army is 6-0 overall, 5-0 in the AAC and has an extremely easy schedule, with only one team — UTSA, which has had a disappointing season and is 2-4 — out of the projected top four on its schedule. Army has to play at North Texas (5-1), but the Black Knights could conceivably go undefeated in AAC play and book a spot in the title game.

Navy (5-0, 3-0) has a win over Memphis, which means the Midshipmen could lose one game and still have the tiebreaker over the Tigers. Navy has to play at South Florida and will host Tulane and Charlotte. Army and Navy will play on Dec. 14 in a non-conference game, and they would meet a week earlier in the AAC title game if they're the top two teams in the conference.

Essentially, Memphis has to win its next six games to have a shot at the title game. And then the Tigers need some help.

Who's in the driver's seat for the College Football Playoff spot?

Army and Navy both play Notre Dame, and those games will have significant impacts on potential playoff résumés for either team. They're bona fide contenders if they win. If not, it'll depend on what happens elsewhere.

No. 22 Boise State is probably at the top of the line for the time being. The Broncos have only one loss, a last-second defeat on the road to No. 3 Oregon that no one will hold against them. They also have the Heisman Trophy front-runner in running back Ashton Jeanty, who has college football fans staying up late to watch Boise State and see what he might do next.

The Broncos face UNLV on Oct. 25; the Rebels lost to Syracuse, but they beat Kansas and Houston on the road and would strengthen their résumé considerably with a win over Boise State.

Memphis is behind at least Army, Navy, Boise State and UNLV — for now. And the Tigers have to win the AAC first. But it's halfway through the season, and there's plenty of football left to be played.

Reach sports writer Jonah Dylan at jonah.dylan@commercialappeal.com or on X @thejonahdylan.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Resetting where Memphis football sits in AAC, CFP races at midseason