The 2024-25 Memphis Grizzlies are a ball of unpredictability.

Some experts think they’re a top-three team in the Western Conference. Others have them fighting for their playoff lives in the play-in.

The wide range of predictions on Memphis is an indication of the strength of the West, but it’s also why the Grizzlies may be the NBA’s biggest wild card.

“From a talent standpoint alone, I think they’re pretty deep,” The Athletic's NBA reporter, Kelly Iko, told The Commercial Appeal.

“They’re kind of divisive because you got to see how it all clicks,” New York Daily News senior writer C.J. Holmes said.

The unpredictability comes from an unorthodox situation. Memphis had two consecutive seasons of finishing No. 2 in the West and 50-plus wins before falling to the bottom of the conference with 27 wins last season. A boatload of injuries washed the Grizzlies’ season away, and now they have to work their way back among the elites.

Aiming for higher than before

Comparisons to the Grizzlies' 56-win season in 2021-22 won’t go away. That team advanced to the second round of the playoffs and has become the standard of this era of Memphis basketball.

Even the roster chances have led to comparisons. Rookie center Zach Edey’s role is often compared to veteran big man Steven Adams, and Marcus Smart’s defensive tenacity is expected to replicate much of what Dillon Brooks did.

“I’m always trying to operate in an optimistic but realistic mindset with these guys,” coach Taylor Jenkins said. “I keep trying to remind the guys we’re not trying to get back to where we were two years ago or three years ago. This is a new team.”

Along the path of that new discovery will be reminders not just of the glory days, but also the lows of last season. Grizzlies players have commonly shrugged off player rankings and mediocre expectations. The latest may have been ESPN’s player rankings, where Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. ranked outside the top 50.

Bane found out about the ranking from his best friend, who called him a top-60 player in the NBA as a compliment, referring to those rankings.

“Of course you gonna feel like you’re lower than you should be, but I know I am,” Bane said.

Bane, who has a home in the Dallas area, invited several of his Grizzlies teammates for workouts this summer. Edey, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and GG Jackson were among the teammates who made the trip.

They went through intense workouts that started the shift into why several players have said this is the most urgency they’ve felt within the Grizzlies program.

“Everybody understands the vision and goal,” Bane said. “Whenever we see slippage or something that’s not to our standard, we ain’t letting it slide. Whereas before, we like, ‘Come on, pick it up.’ It’s like, no, we too old for all that. Everybody knows what we’re supposed to be doing. It’s time to put our money where our mouth's at.”

Reaching the top

Morant is the key. When he played last season, the Grizzlies looked like a team capable of a playoff appearance. When he started the season serving a 25-game suspension, Memphis lost its first six games and never looked close to being a playoff team, especially after he was lost for the season because of a shoulder injury.

Obviously Morant is the most valuable player to the Grizzlies’ potential success, but answers vary on who holds the spare set of keys for the drive.

“Zach Edey’s performance as a rookie is probably going to be the biggest determining factor in the ceiling or the floor for this Grizzlies team,” ESPN reporter Tim MacMahon said.

Holmes also called Edey the key, but Iko listed Bane. Jaren Jackson Jr. is another player who has been a popular choice.

What could prevent the breakout

Injuries aside, there are other questions about this season's roster. The Grizzlies valued shooting and rebounding with their additions. They also revamped the coaching staff around Jenkins, retaining only two assistants from last season. While the reports have been positive so far, the changes are alarming, according to Iko.

“If things don’t exactly click, you can easily look at that and say maybe there’s a difference of opinion going on,” Iko said. “Maybe Taylor’s trying to search for an identity that’s not there.”

Damichael Cole is the Memphis Grizzlies beat writer for The Commercial Appeal. Contact Damichael at damichael.cole@commercialappeal.com. Follow Damichael on X, formerly known as Twitter, @DamichaelC.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Memphis Grizzlies one of NBA's biggest wild cards entering season