The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: Why Deebo Samuel's WR33 rank is deceiving
A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.
Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.
DeAndre Hopkins’ WR57 rank is a lie
Hopkins is still tied with Jerry Jeudy in fantasy points per game even after his eruption last week thanks to being stuck in Tennessee’s offense for most of the season. Hopkins’ underlying metrics last season suggested he was far from finished, and he’s now Patrick Mahomes’ WR1 in an Andy Reid offense.
Hopkins has seen a 25% target per route run rate and has gotten 2.40 yards per route run while learning Kansas City’s offense on the fly over two games since joining the Chiefs. He already recorded the most receptions in a game by a KC wide receiver lined up outside since 2018. DHop’s route tree has grown in Kansas City, including the crucial ones over the middle. Rashee Rice is out for the season, and JuJu Smith-Schuster’s eventual return is no threat.
Hopkins has a tough matchup this week when lined up outside against Patrick Surtain II, but the 32-year-old suddenly has a chance to be a legit top-12 fantasy wide receiver down the stretch.
Deebo Samuel Sr.’s WR33 rank is a lie
Samuel Sr. has been a disappointment to fantasy managers, but he’s set up for a big second half if health cooperates. Samuel had gotten 4.88 YPRR with a 38% target share with Brandon Aiyuk off the field since 2021 before leaving the Dallas game early with a rib injury (he had seven targets). Those numbers aren’t sustainable, but they are staggering and suggest he can be a fantasy WR1.
Samuel was limited at Wednesday’s practice, but he says the 49ers are "all hands on deck" coming out of the bye. Samuel is due for TD regression playing on an offense that ranks bottom five in red-zone TD percentage after leading the league last year and now gets CMC back. He’s also looking at more volume with Aiyuk out for the season.
Samuel’s fantasy value is on the rise significantly.
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Trey McBride’s zero touchdown catches is a lie
McBride leads all pass catchers with the most targets (60) without recording a receiving touchdown this season. He did score a rushing TD last week, when he was also tackled inside the three-yard line, and Kyler Murray missed him wide open in the end zone during another play.
Arizona attempted just 20 passes thanks to game script, and the Cardinals’ offense has looked much better over the last two weeks while expanding Marvin Harrison Jr.’s route tree. McBride has been the TE3 in fantasy points per game despite not recording a receiving touchdown, and TD regression is coming. McBride gets a tougher matchup against the Jets this week before Arizona’s bye, but his schedule looks highly favorable down the stretch.
Aaron Jones’ two touchdown runs are a lie
Jones is dominating Minnesota’s backfield work, but he continues to suffer bad luck with rushing scores. Jones has the seventh most expected rushing touchdowns but ranks just 30th in TD runs this season. The Vikings have the seventh best red-zone TD percentage (64%), but Jones is just 1-for-7 on carries inside the five-yard line. He converted 50% of those attempts last year.
Minnesota is averaging 26.1 points per game, and Jones gets a favorable matchup this week. Jacksonville has allowed the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs over the last five games and the fifth-most rushing TDs (11) this season. The Vikings have the third-highest implied team total (25.25 points) and should be in a positive game script as big road favorites with Trevor Lawrence unlikely to play. Jones’ TD regression starts Sunday.
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Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s RB37 rank is a lie
Tracy Jr.’s fantasy points per game ranks him in between Zack Moss and Raheem Mostert this season, but he has top-15 RB upside down the stretch now that he’s fully taken over as New York’s lead back. Tracy Jr.’s had a strong role over three games since Devin Singletary returned, and it’s growing by the week. Tracy Jr. has averaged 82.6 rushing yards and 5.2 YPC over five games as a starter, and he’s capable of contributing more in the passing game (he played wide receiver in college).
The Giants have turned run-heavy over the last two games, and they get a Carolina defense this week allowing by far the most fantasy points to running backs. The Panthers have also yielded the most rushing yards (132.9) and total touchdowns (15) to RBs this year. The Giants are near touchdown favorites in Germany on Sunday, so Tracy Jr. has a mouth-watering matchup. New York then gets three straight defenses that rank bottom 10 in RB fantasy points allowed after its bye.
Tracy Jr.’s fantasy rank will finish a lot higher than it is now.
