Phillies 2024 season preview: Lineup, rotation and new way Bryce Harper can lead Series run
When we last left the Phillies, they had just finished a stunning NLCS meltdown in which they blew a 3-2 series lead to the upstart Arizona Diamondbacks by losing both Games 6 and 7 at raucous Citizens Bank Park.
The players went into the offseason determined not to let it happen again. Management promised to make sure manager Rob Thomson had the resources necessary to make another run.
So as the Phillies get set to open the 2024 season on Friday at Citizens Bank Park beginning at 3:05 p.m. against their bitter rivals in the Atlanta Braves, they're doing it with ... pretty much the exact same team that finished 14 games behind Atlanta in each of the past two seasons.
But it's different.
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We saw this last season. After falling seven games below .500 last June, the Phillies finished out the season at 65-40. If projected out for a full season, that comes out to a record of 100-62.
Much of that coincided with three main factors last season − Bryce Harper rounding into form and moving to first base after offseason elbow surgery that kept him out for the first five weeks of the season; Kyle Schwarber moving back into the leadoff spot and continuing to bash home runs and getting on base despite a .207 batting average; and Johan Rojas getting a mid-season call-up and dazzling with his defense, thus moving Schwarber out of left field and into the designated hitter role.
Well, all three factors are in place for the start of this season, along with staff aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler getting new contracts, and a strong bullpen that was kept intact − other than Craig Kimbrel, who lost his closer role in the playoffs before leaving in free agency.
Still, there will be challenges. That begins Thursday against a once-again loaded Braves team, no doubt more determined than ever after the Phillies eliminated them in the NLDS two straight years.
Phillies projected lineup
Kyle Schwarber, DH
Trea Turner, SS
Bryce Harper, 1B
J.T. Realmuto, C
Alec Bohm, 3B
Bryson Stott, 2B
Nick Castellanos, RF
Brandon Marsh, LF
Johan Rojas, CF
Analysis: Don't be surprised if Bohm is in the cleanup spot before too long. He had 20 homers and 97 RBIs and a .765 OPS, improving his power numbers for a third straight season. He could hit at least 25 homers this season, thus providing better support for Harper.
As great a defender as Rojas is, he'll have to hit better than the .170/.264/.464 slash line he posted in spring training to stay in the lineup, let alone the major leagues. Free agent signee Whit Merrifield can spell Rojas against tough righties and Brandon Marsh against lefties. Marsh has a career OPS of .784 against righties but only .591 against lefties.
Phillies projected rotation
Zack Wheeler, RHP
Aaron Nola, RHP
Ranger Suarez, LHP
Cristopher Sanchez, LHP
Spencer Turnbull, RHP
Closer: Jose Alvarado
Analysis: The Phillies spent $298 million this offseason to re-sign Aaron Nola (7 years, $172 million) and extend Zack Wheeler (3 years, $126 million), and both need to pitch like staff aces. Taijuan Walker is starting the season on the IL, opening a spot for Turnbull, who posted a 2.88 ERA in 2021. But injuries plagued him ever since. Sanchez was a revelation as a mid-season callup, and Suarez has been solid and steady.
At closer, expect to see somewhat of a committee with Alvarado, Seranthony Dominguez and possibly Jeff Hoffman getting chances. But don't be surprised if Orion Kerkering, who rocketed through the minors last season, gets the bulk of the chances later in the season. Kerkering is starting the season on the IL after an illness put him a few weeks behind.
Notable additions
Whit Merrifield, OF; Spencer Turnbull, P; Zac Houston, P; Jordan Luplow, OF
Notable subtractions
Rhys Hoskins, 1B; Michael Lorenzen, P; Craig Kimbrel, P; Jake Cave, OF
Phillies injured list
Walker (shoulder), Kerkering (illness), Dylan Covey, P (shoulder), Andrew Painter, P (elbow). Painter, the Phillies' pitching phenom, had Tommy John surgery last August and isn't expected to pitch in 2024. Kerkering should be ready to pitch when he's eligible to come off the IL on April 9.
3 keys to winning the World Series
A healthy Bryce would be nice: As great as Harper has been since signing with the Phillies, he has missed a total of 99 games in the last two seasons. And Harper missed some time this spring with a sore back, something that could bear watching. The Phillies desperately need his bat in the lineup, not to mention his glove at first base.
Beyond Wheeler and Nola: The Phillies need complete seasons from Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez to balance out the rotation behind Nola and Wheeler. Suarez spent two stints on the IL last season, while Sanchez was a revelation upon being thrust into the rotation. With Walker on the IL, the Phillies are already digging into their depth with Turnbull. After that, they might have to turn to 22-year-old phenom Mick Abel. That wouldn't be a bad thing as long as he can keep his walks down.
Trea-mendous season from Turner: Another reason for the Phillies' second-half surge in 2023 was Trea Turner's turnaround from a miserable start to his 11-year, $300 million contract. Turner was hitting .235 with 10 homers, 35 RBIs and an OPS of .657 through Aug. 3, a span of 107 games, and his defense was suspect at best. Turner finished out the season by hitting .337 with 16 homers and 42 RBIs over his last 48 games, an OPS of 1.047. That kind of production can be lethal for the Phillies out of the No. 2 hole in the lineup.
Manager's report
Rob Thomson's calm demeanor has gone a long way toward the Phillies' playoff runs over the last two seasons. Thomson has been around long enough to know it's a long season, and that means a lot to a mostly veteran roster. Thomson has gone 155-118 since replacing the more high-strung Joe Girardi in June 2022.
The Phillies made it to Game 6 of the World Series in 2022 and Game 6 of the NLCS last season, both times as a wild-card team. But their challenges of getting to the World Series, let alone winning it, go beyond the Braves in the National League.
That's because the Dodgers spent well over $1 billion during the offseason to sign Shohei Ohtani, trade for Tyler Glasnow and add Japanese pitching star Yoshinobu Yamamoto. And don't forget about the plucky Diamondbacks, the team that vanquished the Phillies last season.
A mid-season trade is certainly a possibility. It'll be up to Thomson to make it all work.
Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on X @Mfranknfl.
This article originally appeared on Delaware News Journal: Phillies 2024 season preview: Lineup, rotation, and a new Bryce Harper