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Oklahoma women vs FGCU in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA Tournament opener

NORMAN — OU women’s basketball has its sights set beyond the opening round game or even the opening weekend — though a potential Sweet 16 showdown with top-ranked South Carolina could await.

But first, the Sooners (22-9) will have to get past a difficult first-round matchup in the NCAA women's basketball tournament.

OU earned a No. 5 seed in the tournament and will open the tournament against No. 12 seed Florida Gulf Coast at 3 p.m. Saturday in Bloomington, Indiana.

The winner of that game will take on the Indiana-Fairfield winner in the second round.

Here’s a look at more of what to know about the Sooners’ first-round matchup and a prediction for the opening round:

More: Oklahoma women's basketball March Madness bracket predictions for 2024 NCAA Tournament

Oklahoma Sooners forward Sahara Williams (32) tries to get past Texas Longhorns forward Taylor Jones (44) during a women's college basketball game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Texas Longhorns at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Okla., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Oklahoma won 71-70.
Oklahoma Sooners forward Sahara Williams (32) tries to get past Texas Longhorns forward Taylor Jones (44) during a women's college basketball game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Texas Longhorns at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, Okla., Wednesday, Feb. 28, 2024. Oklahoma won 71-70.

FGCU hasn’t lost since Dec. 10

The Eagles enter the NCAA Tournament having won 22 consecutive games.

Only top-ranked South Carolina, which is 32-0, and Fairfield (29) have longer winning streaks.

Just one game during the winning streak — a 76-69 win over Jacksonville in the first round of the Atlantic Sun tournament March 9 — was decided by fewer than 10 points.

Both South Carolina and Fairfield are also in the Albany 1 region with the Sooners.

More: How OU women's basketball senior Jordan Moser continues to make a big impact for Sooners

FGCU has history with 12-5 upsets

While No. 12 seeds beating fifth-seeded teams aren’t as common in the women’s tournament as they are on the men’s side, they have been more common in recent years.

Each of the last two seasons, two No. 12 seeds have won in the first round — including Florida Gulf Coast’s 74-63 win over Washington State in last year’s tournament.

The Eagles also pulled off a 12-5 upset the year before, knocking off Virginia Tech 84-81.

FGCU is in the tournament for the seventh consecutive time and the 10th time in program history.

The Eagles are the only program other than UConn to win at least 25 games in each of the last 14 seasons.

The Sooners are a No. 5 seed for the second consecutive season and the third time since 2000.

OU hasn’t lost to a lower-seeded team in the first round of the tournament since 2005 — and that was as a No. 8 seed falling to No. 9.

FGCU ‘rains 3s’

The Eagles average more than 30 3-point attempts per game, third nationally.

The only teams to attempt more 3-pointers than FGCU this season were Marshall and California Baptist.

Four Eagles players — Dolly Cairns (5.5), Maddie Antenucci (5.1), Brylee Bartrum (4.8) and Uju Uzeudu (4.7) — are averaging at least 4.5 3-point tries per game.

Antenucci hasn’t played since Jan. 18, however.

History is on Jennie Baranczyk's side. OU hasn’t lost to a lower-seeded team in the first round of the tournament since 2005.
History is on Jennie Baranczyk's side. OU hasn’t lost to a lower-seeded team in the first round of the tournament since 2005.

Oklahoma women vs. Florida Gulf Coast prediction in March Madness

OU 63, FGCU 60: The Sooners have a tough first-round matchup, even before looking at FGCU’s recent history in the tournament. The Sooners have held opponents to 29.7% from beyond the arc, good for fifth in the Big 12. The Eagles did beat then-No. 18 North Carolina 65-64 on Nov. 26, a team the Sooners lost to, 61-52, on Dec. 19. But with Payton Verhulst and Sahara Williams improving late in the season and Skylar Vann providing versatility inside, the Sooners find a way to escape.

OU vs. Florida Gulf Coast

TIPOFF: 3 p.m. Saturday at Assembly Hall in Bloomington, Indiana (ESPN NEWS)

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OU vs Florida Gulf Coast prediction: March Madness, NCAA women's pick