NFL putting fantasy football managers through the spin cycle in 2024
The NFL is nothing if not a roller coaster ride. Almost everything that happened in Week 1 failed to happen in Week 2, and all the fantasy plays we lacked in Week 1 showed up for Week 2. If consistency is what you want, the WNBA is where it’s at. My fantasy rosters could surely use a Caitlin Clark right about now.
What consistency we can find in the NFL — looking at you, Saints! — was wholly unpredictable and still potentially hard to trust.
For example, I started Derek Carr and Rashid Shaheed against Carolina but benched them against Dallas’ “defense.” There’s a lot yet to learn about who and what most teams are going to be this season. One issue is that we saw very little of most NFL starters in the preseason this year, which left us largely guessing at usage and schemes.
What’s worse, injuries are piling up across the league early, creating even more chaos to sort through.
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Bengals receiver Andrei Iosivas is a prime example of what's been happening when managers try to account for the evolving news cycle (be it injury and otherwise). Iosivas was an intriguing Week 1 plug-and-play with Ja’Marr Chase’s contract dispute unresolved and Tee Higgins suddenly ruled out, but his 26-yard outing in the opener ensured he was on your bench for Week 2's two-touchdown game — admittedly with just seven yards receiving on four targets.
We act and we react. Or overreact. Or underreact. Usually some combination, right?
If you feel like a yo-yo, the top-scoring team in your league one week and at the bottom the next (or vice versa), you’re not alone. The question is, what do we do for Week 3 (and beyond)? Which version of events is the truth?
There are plenty of people out there who want to complicate fantasy football, but for me, it still comes down to talent, opportunity and matchup. We can debate absolute levels of talent or matchup, but most of us can generally agree on things like Malik Nabers is wildly capable with the football or that Carolina is the matchup to target. As much as I want to solve the formula for every player in the league, the unpredictability is also why we all love this game.
Let’s look at some of the Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde fantasy lines and try to make sense of what to expect next.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Week 1: 21.6 fantasy points (half-point-per-reception scoring)
Week 2: 3.6 fpts
This one hurts the most as a Likely manager in my TE-premium dynasty league, where I also have Hunter Henry. You can probably guess which guy I started in which week *sigh*. I’ve been a believer in Likely’s talent since he entered the league, and generally, when he has gotten the opportunity, he’s delivered in a big way. Las Vegas appeared to be a winnable game for the Ravens — just ask anyone who plays Survivor — but they came at it with a totally different game plan than they showed in Week 1.
Mark Andrews might have disappointed his fantasy managers in Week 1, but his blocking was key in creating offense against the Chiefs. Now desperate for a win but heading into Dallas for Week 3, it’s hard to trust either Baltimore tight end. I still think Likely looks like the more dynamic fantasy option, but I’m definitely biased. Nonetheless, I’m giving him another shot this weekend.
Marvin Harrison, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Week 1: 0.9 fpts
Week 2: 27.0 fpts
At least Harrison was almost universally started in Week 2, despite his slow start in Buffalo. You just don’t draft a guy in the second round to give up after one week. I’ll be honest, Week 2 was a lot better than Week 1, but he still had only four catches. Luckily, two went for touchdowns and he averaged a whopping 30 yards per reception. That’s great but frankly unsustainable no matter how good you are.
I’d like to see his involvement increase from his current 18% target per route run mark, but of course he’s an every week starter with Kyler Murray making even a small number of targets count (MHJ went from three targets in Week 1 to eight in Week 2).
Malik Nabers, WR, NY Giants
Week 1: 9.1 fpts
Week 2: 23.7 fpts
It’s another tale of two receivers in the same pattern as Harrison Jr., but it looks like there will be weeks that even Daniel Jones can’t suppress Nabers’ supremacy with the ball in his hands. The formula is talent (check), opportunity (18 targets in Week 2, 25 overall; third-most among WRs) and matchup (Washington is a gimme). You have to start him every week, but it won’t all be sunshine and unicorns with this offense. The next potential disappointment looms when the Giants face a less friendly matchup in Cleveland in Week 3.
Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Week 1: 31.18 fpts
Week 2: 9.76 fpts
The Bills are the third-highest-scoring team so far but rank 31st in pass attempts per game. I’ve heard whispers that the pass-heavy formula that swept the league a decade or so ago is coming to an end, as defenses have adjusted and it becomes more profitable to run the ball. It’s not an absolute, of course, and Allen still provides plenty of value with his legs, but where this low-volume pass attack matters (42 total passes through two games) is for Allen’s WRs and TEs.
I’m still starting Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid in a potentially high-scoring Week 3 tilt with Jacksonville, but James Cook is the clear-cut star of the season so far in Buffalo. The Bills are going to win football games however they can and fantasy managers need to accept that it won’t always be Allen scoring the points (but also that it usually will be).
In other words, no cause for alarm here heading into Week 3.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 1: 29.66 fpts
Week 2: 19.8 pts
This one isn’t Jekyll and Hyde through two weeks, but rather through Mayfield’s career. We could add Sam Darnold here as well under the heading of "Surprisingly Good QBs." In fact, Mayfield is first in fantasy points among QBs and Darnold is 10th. Just like we all expected.
Chris Godwin has been the go-to guy, leading all WRs in fantasy points with a 94% catch rate and two touchdowns. Mike Evans has two scores as well. Mayfield has looked sharp, accurate and agile, scrambling for 55 yards so far (and a rushing TD). His four passing TDs vs. Washington in the opener may have more to do with the Commanders’ defense than Mayfield himself, but his fantasy value held up in Detroit and surely will do so again in Week 3 vs. Denver.
Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts
Week 1: 27.08 fpts
Week 2: 12.86 fpts
Richardson hasn't quite lived up to ADP expectations so far as he ranks at QB8 through two weeks, but there’s time. It’s not all on him either, as Michael Pittman Jr., the most targeted receiver on the team, has only a 47% catch rate. Most of Richardson’s passing production has come on deep throws to Alec Pierce and Ashton Dulin — exactly the kind of plays you can’t rely on or predict in fantasy. Richardson attempted nearly twice as many passes in Week 2 as he did in Week 1 while rushing less often. His passing yards, 212 and 204, are essentially the same, as is his completion percentage.
The Packers defense came away with three interceptions of Richardson in Week 2, something worth noting as the Colts face the Bears in Week 3. Richardson’s managers are starting him, but seriously hoping the team plays to the strength he’s shown on the ground and in making the deep ball work rather than simply upping his passing volume.
More fantasy football analysis
Kickers
There are 15 kickers currently averaging 10 or more fantasy points per game. Even with PPR settings, there are six tight ends, 38 WRs and 28 RBs doing that. There have been six 20 or more fantasy point games from kickers so far this season (one from TE, 10 from QB, nine from RB and 16 from WR). The league wanted kicking to be a more prominent part of the game and like it or not, it’s happening. I’m personally not a fan of mandatory kicker leagues, but I do like the option of using one (or more) in a flex spot, as is done in Scott Fish Bowl.
There’s a decent chance that you’ve won — or lost — a matchup due to a kicker already this season. The position has been much disparaged over the years in fantasy circles, but it might be cool to care about kickers again. Especially if the rest of your league isn’t paying that much attention, some of you could benefit from an upgrade at the position.