Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: What we wished we knew before Week 1 to use in Week 2
Knowledge is power, they say. As someone who has dedicated their life to accumulating and disseminating knowledge, I mostly agree. I always try to learn as much as possible before making a decision and I don’t enjoy being forced to decide when I feel some information is lacking.
Yet, there is something exciting about the period of not knowing: anything is possible.
Scientists who study gambling and addictive behavior have found that the part of the brain that signals reward through the neurochemical dopamine is most active during the period of uncertainty — after a wager is placed but before the result is known. This is true whether the bet wins or loses and applies to various gambling and gambling-adjacent tasks. The implication is that the part of gambling that’s addicting is the possibility of what might be, the potential for a win rather than the win itself.
We don’t have to be problem gamblers to appreciate this about our fantasy football lineups.
From the moment we drafted until Thursday evening, our rosters were perfect. We could imagine the stats piling up and just that bit of wishful thinking led to a burst of dopamine that felt good. Now that the games have been played and we know the outcome of our matchups, things have changed. We enjoy winning, of course, and probably hate losing too, but the sense that anything is possible is long gone. The good news is that it’ll be back by Thursday morning. Most of us have a well of optimism we can go back to again and again. With some small tweaks to our starting lineups, Week 2 could be perfect.
For today, I’m hitting on some things that we wished we knew going into Week 1 … and what we now know for Week 2 and beyond.
Isaiah Likely, TE, Baltimore Ravens
With nine catches on 12 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown, Likely nearly doubled the next-best TE fantasy score (Foster Moreau). We’d seen flashes of goodness from Likely before, notably when Mark Andrews was out in the second half of last season, but this still came out of nowhere and likely helped very few win their fantasy week.
Andrews was drafted as the TE3-6 this season, so this is a concerning piece of knowledge for some of you. Nothing against Andrews and what he and Lamar Jackson have done over the years, but the Ravens would be foolish to leave Likely on the bench going forward.
This is a rare case where I’m making the adjustment early to add and start Likely over Andrews for a juicy Week 2 matchup with the Raiders.
Rashid Shaheed/Chris Olave, WRs, New Orleans Saints
It was a tale of two receivers in a game where the Saints put up a whopping 47 points on the Panthers. While Olave was started universally, Shaheed only helped those of you in the deepest of leagues. The box score does exaggerate the discrepancy here. Shaheed caught three of five targets for 73 yards and a score, while Olave caught both of his for a paltry 11 yards. Shaheed’s depth of target was 20.5 yards, while Olave’s was 6.5 yards.
Both TEs also got involved, splitting seven targets and each scoring a touchdown, but as we know, the way to beat Carolina is on the ground. Alvin Kamara, Jamaal Williams and even Jordan Mims were involved, splitting 37 rushes and accounting for two of the Saints’ TDs.
Shaheed’s place on the field is secured and he will no doubt have useful games in your flex spot, but Olave remains the must-start WR, even against Dallas in Week 2. If we see this kind of performance from Olave in Week 3 vs. Philadelphia, I’ll consider benching him but no sooner than that.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins finished the week as the RB4, racking up 135 yards on only 10 carries along with a rushing touchdown and three short receptions. He was dynamic, quick, elusive — choose your own adjective to describe an incredible performance, especially when you consider his extensive injury history (most recently the torn Achilles).
Dobbins clearly had the hot hand in this one, though Gus Edwards narrowly out-carried him (a dismal 11 rushes for 23 yards). Next up are the aforementioned Panthers, and I’d be comfortable starting either of the Chargers backs in Week 2.
Jayden Reed, WR, Green Bay Packers
There were a few interesting fantasy debates this summer, but none perhaps so divisive as choosing your favorite Packers WR. Reed made his stance clear, holding off all comers to finish as the Week’s top receiver (four catches on six targets for 138 yards and a score plus a 33-yard touchdown run). My original pick, Romeo Doubs, led the receiver group with seven targets (grabbing four for 50 yards), while Christian Watson saved his fantasy line with a touchdown (three catches for 13 yards).
One thing we all agree on is the Packers offense is legit when Jordan Love is under center and it would be hard to sit any of these big three if he was healthy. In Week 2, optimism rules even with Love unlikely to start, as the Pack takes on the Colts who were just carved up through the air (and on the ground, see next) by Houston.
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
So far, Mixon is the draft value of 2024. Time will tell if this performance has anything to do with the Colts' run defense (which was among the most generous last season), but Mixon’s 30 carries speak volumes on their own. Mixon reached the end zone once, totaling 159 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards on three catches.
There was hardly a bad stat line to be found in the Texans offense (except Dalton Schultz), but will that be the case when they host Chicago next Sunday night? I expect Mixon, at a minimum, to generate more of the same against a porous Chicago run defense.
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Not every story here is a happy one.
While this was a competitive and entertaining game to watch (Go Bills!), the top rookie WR fantasy prospect was hard to find. While Harrison was in on 95% of the teams’ snaps, he was targeted on only 8% of them. In fact, Greg Dortch was the go-to guy with eight targets (31% targets on routes run, going 6/47 yards), while Michael Wilson scored the lone receiving touchdown for the Cardinals.
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I was all-in this season on Trey McBride anyway, but his nine targets cement him in starting lineups, despite the forgettable 5/30 receiving line he managed with them. Harrison suddenly screams caution as a fantasy starter as he ended his NFL debut catching one of three passes for just four yards. I’d exercise that caution when considering starting Harrison in Week 2; the Cards face a Rams defense that did a great job keeping Amon-Ra St. Brown in check Sunday night.
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
When Williams envisioned his NFL debut, I’m sure it was pretty much the opposite of the reality. He failed to throw or run for a touchdown, amassing only 108 total yards of offense. On the plus side, he also didn’t throw an interception and recovered his lone fumble. The Bears won, which might say more about the Titans’ offense and Chicago's defense … but at least demonstrates a true team effort. With Tennessee boasting one of the better run defenses, there was more pressure on Williams to perform on Sunday (D’Andre Swift was held to 30 yards on 10 carries). That, in addition to the normal rookie QB learning curve, contributed to Williams’ lackluster start. Williams won’t exactly have it easy in Week 2 vs. Houston and is benchable for a better option (Justin Herbert, perhaps?).
Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
How Darnold would perform, and the value Jefferson could provide as a result, was one of summer’s biggest questions. Week 1 went a long way toward comforting Jefferson’s managers, even though the star receiver "only" put up a 4/59/1 line. Darnold, most importantly, was not a disaster, throwing for 208 efficient yards, two TDs and only one interception. Things could have been much much worse (although against the NY Giants, could they?).
I’m not declaring Jefferson out of the woods just yet, given the easy assignment in Week 1. Week 2’s tilt in San Francisco will provide more clarity, where you’re starting Jefferson and continuing to wait and see on Darnold, even in SuperFlex formats.
