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Mussatto: Why make a trade? OKC Thunder already looks like NBA Finals contender

After beating the Celtics on Tuesday night, rookie center Chet Holmgren turned to a Thunder staffer and confirmed the date: January 2.

“We have over 50 games of the regular season left to play,” Holmgren said, “so us worrying about playing in the NBA Finals when it’s January 2, we’re gonna miss out on so many opportunities that are right here in front of us to get better.”

NBA Finals? My how things have changed in Oklahoma City. Holmgren was being hyperbolic to reinforce his point that the Thunder has a long way to go, but the team’s recent stretch of play, despite a schedule loss Wednesday night in Atlanta, confirmed that the Thunder just might be … contenders.

It sounds absurdly premature, and maybe it is, but here’s a sampling of wins the Thunder has recorded in the last 20 days: at Denver (twice), vs. Clippers, vs. Timberwolves, vs. Celtics.

Five wins, coming against the Nuggets (the defending champs), the Clippers (fourth in the west and winners of nine straight before losing in OKC), the Timberwolves (which have a one-game lead atop the West over the second-place Thunder and Nuggets), and the Celtics (the best team in the East and owners of the best record in the NBA.)

“I think it says that we’re really playing together and we’re prioritizing winning over anything else,” Holmgren said. “But as far as long term, it doesn’t really prove anything, I guess you could say. It doesn’t satisfy anybody. We know we have a long way to go.”

More: OKC Thunder's Chet Holmgren named NBA Western Conference Rookie of the Month for December

Thunder forward Jalen Williams (rights) celebrates with forward Chet Holmgren (7) and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (left) after Holmgren gets a layup and is fouled in overtime against the Warriors on Dec. 8 at Paycom Center.
Thunder forward Jalen Williams (rights) celebrates with forward Chet Holmgren (7) and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (left) after Holmgren gets a layup and is fouled in overtime against the Warriors on Dec. 8 at Paycom Center.

Remember when the Thunder was beating up on bad teams and losing to good teams?

Well, now it’s beating up on bad teams and beating good teams. OKC (23-10) is 13-3 against teams below .500 and 10-7 against teams above .500.

But if these last few weeks have opened the Thunder’s eyes, think again.

“To be honest with you, none of that goes through our minds,” said Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who naturally plays things cool. “Every day we come to work the same way. Before games we have shootarounds the same way. We practice the same way. I think we all stay in the moment, and I think that’s why we’ve been able to get better.”

SGA echoed Mark Daigneault’s script.

“We’ve had some early success,” the Thunder coach said, “but if we want to continue to have success we have to keep getting better, and I think we have a group that understands that.”

Better doesn’t do the Thunder justice. Two seasons removed from winning 24 games, the Thunder has the statistical profile of a legitimate title contender.

What does SGA, who has as good of an MVP case as anyone, make of his squad’s leap?

“This is gonna sound repetitive, but what I’ve figured out in my career was to throw out expectations. Not throw out goals, but just focus on day in and day out and try to get better every day,” he said. “And then at the end of the year look up and you’ll have 365 days of getting better and you’ll be a better player, better team. And that’s how we’ve attacked these last couple seasons, and it’s paying off.”

More: OKC Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren appear in NBA All-Star fan voting

Thunder general manager Sam Presti has been steadfast in not placing expectations or trying to predict the pace of the rebuild.
Thunder general manager Sam Presti has been steadfast in not placing expectations or trying to predict the pace of the rebuild.

To the Thunder’s credit, from general manager Sam Presti on down, OKC has been steadfast in not placing expectations or trying to predict the pace of the rebuild. A pace that turned out to be superluminal.

OKC ranks fifth in offensive rating and sixth in defensive rating. Four teams rank top-10 in both offense and defense. Two from the West, the Thunder and Nuggets, and two from the East, the Celtics and 76ers.

The Thunder has an 8.1 net rating (outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions). That’s third-best behind the 76ers (10.4) and Celtics (10.0). The Nuggets are fourth at 5.7. For context, anything above a 6.0 net rating is historically elite.

The Thunder’s 2011-12 NBA Finals team had a 6.3 net rating — outscoring opponents by 1.8 fewer points per 100 possessions than this Thunder squad. The thing we said would never happen again, a Thunder team with a prodigious Big Three akin to Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and James Harden, might be happening.

I’m not saying Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams will all win an MVP award — although would anyone be floored if the first two did? — but Presti and Co. looks to have done it again, compiling a collection of young talent that’s the envy of the league.

Not just a collection of talent, but parts that have snapped together as tightly as the maple panels on the court in which they play.

“I think they’re ambitious, but I also think they’ve put the work in behind that,” Daigneault said. “There’s so many examples of us improving not only this season but in previous seasons over time, and they have an uncommon ability to block out the noise and to just stay focused on what we need to get better at, and they tend to respond really well to adversity.”

More: Why did Kenrich Williams sit out for OKC Thunder loss to Hawks? Mark Daigneault explains

Coach Mark Daigneault and the Thunder entered play Thursday 23-10 overall, tied for second place in the Western Conference.
Coach Mark Daigneault and the Thunder entered play Thursday 23-10 overall, tied for second place in the Western Conference.

Why would anyone be in a rush to alter the Thunder’s recipe before the missing ingredient becomes obvious? Because right about now, things are smelling pretty good. The Thunder might add a dash of something before next month’s trade deadline, but changing the whole flavor profile sounds bananas at this point.

Does the Thunder need a bigger big man? Heck, I don’t know. The team is winning 70% of its games as is and I wouldn’t be in a hurry to encroach upon Holmgren’s development or cramp the court for Gilgeous-Alexander.

We’re only talking about the Thunder making a move because it has the means to do so. That doesn’t mean it should, though. I’m far from the first to say it, but maybe the Thunder is good enough to win a playoff series or two as is. There likely isn’t a piece the Thunder could add to make it a title favorite without sacrificing the financial flexibility it needs to keep this young core intact.

And let’s just lose our minds for a second and say the Thunder makes it all the way to the West Finals where it falls to the Nuggets. Heck, even crazier, let’s say OKC loses to Boston in the NBA Finals. Is anyone of rational mind really going to rue the Thunder for not being more aggressive at the trade deadline? Gosh, no. You, me and everyone from Presti to Rumble the Bison is going to marvel at how long the ride lasted. The first ride, by the way, of what could be many.

We in Oklahoma City know as well as anyone that NBA championship windows aren’t open for long, but the Thunder’s window was just installed. The caulk isn’t dry.

Looking back to last season, Denver was dominant in its postseason title run, but the 2022-23 Nuggets had a 3.3 net rating in the regular season. Boston had a league-best 6.7 net rating. Cleveland, a cautionary tale for OKC, was second in net rating at 5.6.

The upstart Cavaliers went 51-31 last season but they were manhandled by the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. OKC (SGA) has a brighter star than Cleveland (Donovan Mitchell) and a better young big man (Chet Holmgren > Evan Mobley), but the Cavs, despite being great in the regular season, failed their first postseason test.

More: Why Mark Daigneault was 'lucky' to have Al Horford on OKC Thunder in coach's debut season

We talk about teams needing playoff scars. The Thunder doesn’t have a playoff scratch.

A play-in scrap is the closest this Thunder team has gotten to the postseason. Gilgeous-Alexander, despite being one of the top-five players on the planet, has yet to win a playoff series. And he’s the only Thunder player to have played in multiple playoff series: one in his rookie season with the Clippers, and another in his first season with the Thunder.

So maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves, despite the statistical evidence arguing otherwise. We can only wait and see what awaits this Thunder team.

After all, as a wise 21-year-old rookie reminded us, it’s barely January.

Joe Mussatto is a sports columnist for The Oklahoman. Have a story idea for Joe? Email him at jmussatto@oklahoman.com. Support Joe's work and that of other Oklahoman journalists by purchasing a digital subscription today at subscribe.oklahoman.com.

Thunder vs. Nets

TIPOFF: 6:30 p.m. Friday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, N.Y. (Bally Sports Oklahoma)

This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder looks like NBA title contender. Why make trade?