Quarterback

Start: Bo Nix, Broncos

We’re back to Nix SZN after a brief remission for his showdown with the Chiefs, a game in which he still tossed two scores with no picks. His Week 11 matchup with the Falcons is far more favorable. The Falcons are 21st in EPA per dropback allowed. Only six teams have given up more fantasy points to quarterbacks. That is fueled in large part by them allowing the third-most rushing yards to passers. Nix is top-five in rushing yards among quarterbacks.

Start: Jared Goff, Lions

The Jags are among the best matchups in the league for opposing passers. They have given up the third-most fantasy points to QBs and are dead last in EPA per dropback allowed. Vegas is buying the Lions’ impending destruction of the Jags with a 30.5-point team total. That is the highest in the league by over a field goal. For those concerned that a blowout is bad for business: Goff has six touchdowns in his two games with a margin of victory over three possessions this year.

Sit: Anthony Richardson, Colts

It’s great to see the Colts giving their young passer another shot. Joe Flacco wasn’t giving them win-now chances, so going back to Richardson was their only choice. With that being said, we may be forgetting just how bad Richardson was as a fantasy option before being benched. He peaked at 212 passing yards across six starts and had one multi-score gaming including rushing touchdowns. Speaking of rushing production, Richardson’s was good but not enough to make up for his poor passing numbers. He averaged 40 yards per week. All in, Richardson is the QB32 in fantasy points per game this season.

Sit: Geno Smith, Seahawks

The San Francisco matchup has been a nightmare for Geno ever since he joined the Seahawks.

He has been held under 200 yards in half of his matchups with the 49ers and has one game over 238 yards. Smith has two touchdowns and five picks versus San Francisco. Unsurprisingly, the 49ers’ perenially elite pass-rush is an issue for Geno. They have the 10th-highest pressure rate this year and the third-highest rate on non-blitz plays, meaning they can disrupt quarterbacks without expending coverage resources. When pressured, Smith is 23rd in the league in yards per attempt and easily leads the league with nine interceptions.

Running Back

Start: Audric Estime, Broncos

Estime took over the Denver backfield last week, seeing 14-of-17 running back carries while leading the trio of himself, Javonte Williams, and Jaleel McLaughlin in snap share (45 percent). After the game, Sean Payton gave Estime another vote of confidence.

On a limited sample, Estime leads the backfield with 3.7 yards after contact per attempt. Williams is at 2.4 and McLaughlin is at 2.6, putting both outside the top 40 running backs. Estime is the team’s best option at running back and Payton appears to be fully bought in.

Start: Aaron Jones, Vikings

Sam Darnold’s struggles have forced the Vikings to abandon their pass-heavy nature. Over the past three weeks, the Vikings have registered a -1% pass rate over expected.

They had a +5% PROE heading into Week 8. The change in style has resulted in more work for Jones, who is averaging 21.7 touches per game in his past three appearances. With his team favored by six points over the Titans, Week 11 is an eruption spot for the former Packer.

Sit: D’Andre Swift, Bears

You can sort Swift’s performances into two categories—Caleb Williams was good and Caleb Williams was bad—and guess his fantasy output with ease.

Williams is nearly dead last in every efficiency metric over the past three weeks and hasn’t given us a reason to bet on a turnaround. Swift’s fate is tied to Williams and that ship is currently sinking.

Sit: Najee Harris, Steelers

With Jaylen Warren back in the lineup and averaging over a dozen touches per week, Harris’s RB2 status depends entirely on game script. Harris had a route rate of 50 percent and a target share of 13 percent through five weeks, most of which Warren was hobbled for or outright sidelined. Since his return, those numbers are down to 31 and six percent respectively. As three-point underdogs to the pass-funnel Ravens, this isn’t a week we should expect the Steelers to get Harris going.

Update: Jaylen Warren is questionable for Week 11. If he goes, Harris remains a clear sit. Even if he is held out, Harris will be a high-risk RB3 at best.

Wide Receiver

Start: Jauan Jennings, 49ers

In two games with a route rate over 80 percent, Jennings has a 37 percent target share and a 42 percent target share. The 49ers were at the closest to full strength they can be in Week 11 and Jennings ran a route on 95 percent of Purdy’s dropbacks. He paced the team with seven catches for 93 yards. Per usual, the 49ers are projected by Vegas as one of the week's highest-scoring teams. Their team total of 27.25 trails only the Lions. Now playing a full-time and high-volume role, Jennings figures to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of a high-scoring game from the 49ers.

Start: Jameson Williams, Lions

One of the most notable reasons the Jaguars are a cakewalk matchup for quarterbacks is their inability to prevent chunk gains. The Jags have allowed the second-most explosive plays (gains of 15+ yards) and the second-most deep completions (aDOT of at least 20) this year. Williams leads the Lions in yards (139) and touchdowns (two) on deep targets despite missing two games. It’s Goff/Williams stacks for all the marbles in DFS this week.

Sit: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars

On the other end of the spectrum, we have Brian Thomas Jr. acnhored to a Jaguars passing attack with no hope of generating big plays. Mac Jones threw deep on 4.5 percent of his throws in Week 10. That is over three times lower than Trevor Lawrence’s deep throw rate. Jones was picked off on his only deep attempt of the day. Jones has a noodle arm on film and in the spreadsheets. We can quietly send Thomas to the bench until Lawrence returns.

Sit: DJ Moore, Bears

The Bears’ recent spiral on offense has been well documented including on the Rotoworld Football Show.

Moore is compounding the issue with a lack of targets. He ranks third on the team in target share over the past three weeks at 23 percent. His 24 percent air yards share is 10 percent below Keenan Allen and 13 behind Rome Odunze. Without a high floor of targets to fall back on, Moore is out of the WR2 ranks this week.

Tight End

Start: Taysom Hill, Saints

Hill set a career-high in target share (19 percent) two weeks ago and is coming off a career-high in route rate (63 percent). With Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means sidelined, Hill has been pulled into a substantial role through the air. On top of that, backup running backs Kendre Miller and Jamaal Williams are also banged up, gifting Hill the RB2 role. He has nine carries for 33 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks.

Start: Mark Andrews, Ravens

Isaiah Likely is back this week, throwing some cold water on the idea of Andrews as a top-five tight end. While he should probably fall back to the end of the TE1 ranks, he has earned his spot in the top 12, with our without Likely active.

Andrews’ role hit rock bottom in Week 4 and has rebounded in the subsequent month. From Week 6 to Week 9—which ignores the game Likely missed—Andrews earned 16 percent of the Ravens’ targets and 27 percent of the team’s end zone looks. Those marks would rank 15th and fourth on the year as a whole. Andrews averaged 13.7 PPR points per game during this stretch. Lamar Jackson’s MVP-level play plus an uptick in passing volume from the offense is enough to keep Andrews in the TE1 ranks this week.

Sit: Jake Ferguson, Cowboys

We don’t need to do this to ourselves. If a player catching passes from Cooper Rush is not named CeeDee Lamb, just don’t put him in your fantasy lineup. Ferguson is 13th in target share among tight ends but all the way down at 20th in air yards share. He is still searching for his first end zone target of the year and that is likely to come without Dak Prescott under center.

Sit: Dalton Schultz, Texans

Like Ferguson, Schultz simply isn’t seeing the ball enough to overcome both his own inefficiencies plus the struggles of his offense. The veteran tight end has a 15 percent target share, well below Ferguson, and is averaging a dreadful 1.0 yards per route run. Schultz is closer to a “cut” than a “start” this week.