Fantasy football tiers for the 12 first-round players
By Pranav Rajaram, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Recently, I wrote at length about how every first round pick in fantasy football this year could bust. While that was a valuable exercise, it is obviously just a worst-case overview — the majority of the 12 players going in the first round will be excellent for your teams this year.
So, in this article, we’ll be looking at a more holistic view of the first-round talents, with a focus on helping you decide on who specifically to draft based on which pick number you have.
Note: I am using John Paulsen's rankings on 4for4 for the projected points and 4for4's Multi-site ADP tool for ADP.
Phase One: The Best Fantasy Assets Alive
I think there is a clear Tier 1 in fantasy drafts this year composed of Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Tyreek Hill. I wouldn’t fault you for taking any of them with the 1.01, as they are as fault-proof as you can get in terms of production and consistency.
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I still prefer taking Christian McCaffrey with the first pick, despite the news that he suffered a calf strain in training camp and is missing the preseason. I think the advantage that McCaffrey offers over a replacement-level running back is simply too large to pass up on, especially as elite bell cow running backs become rarer and rarer. While injuries are always a risk with CMC, there is legitimately nothing else you need to worry about with him — McCaffrey has finished as a top-three fantasy running back in every single season he has played more than eight games in besides his rookie year.
Between the two receivers, I prefer Hill over Lamb. We are trying to eliminate as many question marks as possible in the first round, and Lamb has yet to report to training camp as he continues to be in a contract dispute with the Cowboys. I highly doubt that Lamb actually misses any time during the season due to the holdout, and it isn’t concerning enough for me to drop him into the tier below. But, by taking Hill at 1.02, you avoid the risk altogether and still get a guy who has put up 1,700 receiving yards in consecutive seasons.
Phase Two: High Floor, High Ceiling Stars
The next group of guys are all electric players with a great combination of floor and ceiling, and are all in consideration to go at the 1.04 after the guys in the tier above.
Jets running back Breece Hall is my favorite of the lot. Hall somehow managed to be a fantasy star on the Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle-led Jets offense last season, totaling nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage en route to an overall RB4 finish. Now that four-time MVP Aaron Rodgers will step in as the Jets quarterback, I believe Hall has the potential to be the best player in fantasy football this year. Hilariously, Hall had one total carry inside the five-yard line last season. For reference, La'Mical Perine, Hunter Luepke and Easton Stick all had two.
With even a little bit of positive regression toward the mean in that department, Hall’s touchdown numbers should skyrocket, making him even better in fantasy.
I prefer Hall to Bijan Robinson because he has less competition to worry about — Tyler Allgeier will likely still be somewhat involved in the Falcons' offense even if Robinson steps into a bigger role. With that being said, Robinson is also a great pick who should receive a similar offensive upgrade with Kirk Cousins in Atlanta. I would definitely be targeting Hall with the fourth pick of the first round and Robinson with the fifth.
If you are set on taking a receiver in the first round and are picking in this range, then Amon-Ra St. Brown is your best bet. St. Brown looks like he has one of the highest floors I can remember in fantasy. He is the perfect safety valve for quarterback Jared Goff and a seamless fit in Ben Johnson’s offensive system, and should once again put up great numbers as part of arguably a top-three offense in the NFL. Especially in PPR formats, St. Brown is a no-brainer of a selection.
I like St. Brown a little more than Chase because Chase has the question mark of Joe Burrow’s health looming. Burrow appears to be fully recovered from the wrist injury he suffered last season but has been quite banged up throughout his career, which is concerning. Chase’s explosive-play-centric style has also lent itself to streaky performances week-to-week at times.
Phase Three: Fun Players with Some Questions
All of these players could still realistically finish as the highest scorer at their position this year, but they have a few more potential roadblocks that could get in their way. I think these guys are a lot more interchangeable than the tiers above, but here is how I would prioritize them.
Gibbs is my main target if I’m picking eighth overall. Although the first round might feel lofty for a guy who might not even be his team’s full-time starter, I’m confident that Gibbs is dynamic enough as an athlete to live up to his ADP even if he continues to be in a timeshare with David Montgomery. Gibbs should remain one of the top pass-catching running backs in the NFL this year to support his floor, and he is a candidate for double-digit touchdowns after scoring 11 times his rookie year.
I might be too faithful that 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers is fully recovered from his Achilles tear, but give me Garrett Wilson over the more established stars, Jefferson and Brown. Wilson has had perhaps the worst combination of quarterbacks ever to start his career, but has still managed to put together back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Last year, Wilson ranked fourth in the entire NFL in targets with 168, but had fewer than 100 catches and scored just three touchdowns. Similar to Hall, I’m optimistic that Rodgers’ return will serve as a rising tide for all the Jets skill position players, allowing Wilson to put up better numbers on similar volume.
The debate between Wilson and Brown is definitely close. Ultimately, I like Wilson a little more because I think he has the higher ceiling — Brown will have to concede targets to DeVonta Smith, and was rather unproductive down the stretch last season. The Eagles should bounce back this year with Kellen Moore as the new offensive playcaller, but there still is some cause for concern.
I would take both Wilson and Brown over Jefferson, who will be catching passes from Sam Darnold all season after news of rookie QB J.J. McCarthy’s torn meniscus. If anyone can produce with a mediocre quarterback, it's Jefferson, but I’m afraid his upside is not nearly as high as the other first-round receivers.
I’m not a big fan of Taylor this year at his draft price. He has missed significant time in each of the last two seasons due to injury, and has seen a decline in explosiveness and burst compared to his 2021 first-team All-Pro season. With dual-threat QB Anthony Richardson healthy, Taylor could lose out on pass-catching work and red-zone rushing volume, making him a little more risky than the rest of these first-rounders. Obviously, Taylor could realistically also return to his pre-injury form and be close to the league lead in rushing yards, but I’m a little more hesitant about having him as my RB1.
If you plan on taking Taylor in the late first round, I would definitely try to double up and grab another running back in the second.
Other Players to Consider
If you are picking towards the back of the first round, it is worth considering some of the early second-rounders as well, especially because you might have to intelligently manage the turn to get two players you want.
Saquon Barkley, Puka Nacua and Derrick Henry are in the “next up” tier, and they will certainly be taken in the first round of some drafts. Henry would be my top option of the group, and I don’t mind taking him above Taylor if you are targeting a running back. While Henry’s age is a little frightening — you never want to be caught drafting an elite player in the one year they finally stop producing — things look great for him on paper with the Ravens. He should step in as the clear No. 1 running back after Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins both departed in free agency, and will likely benefit from less loaded boxes as defenses will have to be wary of the running threat of Lamar Jackson as well. As long as he stays healthy, Henry should be in for another high-volume, high-production season in Baltimore.
Nacua is someone whom I feel like isn’t being talked about a lot this year, likely due to him dealing with an injury in preseason. After breaking the rookie receiving yardage record, Nacua should once again be an elite fantasy option in 2024. A healthy Cooper Kupp could pose a threat to Nacua’s volume, but I trust a Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay-led Rams offense to support the two of them. I would love to start my draft off with someone like Wilson in the first and then Nacua in the second, locking in a deadly one-two punch at receiver.
Barkley is a high-floor, lower-ceiling guy who would be a great second running back if you take Taylor in the first round. He should see plenty of volume as the Eagles' primary running back, but could lose out on touchdown production due to Jalen Hurts’ red-zone presence on the ground.
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The Bottom Line
The first round of fantasy drafts this year is, of course, loaded with talent, but that doesn’t mean strategy isn’t important. The three phases outlined in this article hopefully will help you navigate your first draft choice better — grouping players into tiers is always a smart way to draft, for the first round and beyond. I would definitely not be considering any quarterbacks or tight ends in the first round this year, and would wait until at least the third round to address those “onesie” positions.
More analysis from 4for4: 16 Winners and Losers in PPR Formats
This article was originally published on 4for4.com
Pranav is an undergraduate college student from Massachusetts. When he’s not cheering for the Patriots, he can be found looking at various NFL and NBA-related statistics. He has played fantasy football since he was seven and enjoys working with numbers and data.
