Fantasy Football: The bust scenario for every 2024 first-round pick
By Pranav Rajaram, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
The first round of fantasy football drafts can be a bit of a landmine. The last thing you want to do is waste the first pick of your draft on a player who does not live up to their ADP. So, although I hate to be a Debbie Downer, I’ll be taking a look at the worst-case scenarios for the 12 players being drafted in the first round according to our Multi-site ADP tool, which nearly mirrors Yahoo ADP.
It is always important to shoot for the stars in fantasy football, but it is equally necessary to remain level-headed and acknowledge a player’s red flags, which is what I hope to do in this article.
1.01: RB Christian McCaffrey, 49ers
As a general rule of thumb, I try to avoid listing potential injuries as the reason why a player could be a bust — it feels like a cop-out answer as football is an extremely physical sport and any player could get hurt on any given play. With that being said, Christian McCaffrey will have to be the exception that proves my rule. The combination of his talent and situation in San Francisco continues to be a perfect match, and I can’t imagine him finishing anywhere outside the top three at the position if he stays healthy.
Christian McCaffrey did pop up on the 49ers’ injury report with a calf strain and will not play in the preseason. He said in an interview that the rehab process was cautionary and that he would play if the regular season started this week, so I am optimistic that he will be ready for the beginning of the year. Calf strains and other soft tissue leg injuries are notoriously finicky and could be easily re-aggravated, but I am still confidently drafting McCaffrey at the 1.01 given the information we know now about his injury.
1.02: WR Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
Tyreek Hill feels almost impossible to find fault with. He has put up 3,509 receiving yards and 21 total touchdowns through two seasons with the Dolphins and has been the overall WR2 in fantasy football in consecutive years. Hill’s health has never been an issue, and he has played in at least 15 games in seven of eight career seasons thus far.
One potential cause for concern is that Hill is entering his age-30 season.
For a player whose game relies on his elite speed, it is possible that Hill starts to lose a step as he gets older — most of the successful wide receivers 30+ are route-running technicians with safe hands like Davante Adams and DeAndre Hopkins. Obviously, Hill hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down, but it is worth noting that there isn’t a whole lot of precedent for a player like Hill thriving at his age.
1.03: WR CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb has been a hot topic the past few weeks as he has not reported to Cowboys training camp due to a contract holdout. Cowboys owner Jerry Jones recently said that he is in no rush to get an extension done with Lamb, meaning the holdout could last longer than expected. It is unlikely that Lamb misses much time during the season itself, as the NFL implemented rules forcing players to forfeit game checks if they hold out into the season after Le'Veon Bell did so. But, it is possible that Lamb gets a similar treatment to Jonathan Taylor last year, who was placed on the PUP list and missed the first four games of the season before agreeing to an extension midseason.
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In that reality, Lamb would certainly disappoint on his ADP, as you would not get a full season out of him and he may come back a bit rusty after skipping out on all of Cowboys practice this summer.
1.04: RB Breece Hall, Jets
The reasons why McCaffrey, Lamb and Hill could bust are admittedly a little nitpicky, and I think the three of them are the clear best players in fantasy this year.
Starting with Breece Hall at the 1.04, the potential red flags get a little more worrisome. Hall has a relatively high floor because he should be near the top of the league in both carries and running back receptions, but his ceiling is closely tied to the play of quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
If Rodgers, who is recovering from a torn Achilles he suffered in Week 1 last year, can return to his MVP form, then the Jets offense will have enough upside to potentially make Hall the overall RB1. However, if Rodgers struggles or gets re-injured, then Hall will likely not meet his RB2 ADP in a lower-ceiling Tyrod Taylor-led offense.
1.05: WR Ja'Marr Chase, Bengals
Like Hall, Ja'Marr Chase’s upside will be determined by the health of his quarterback. Joe Burrow dealt with injuries throughout last season, starting from a calf strain in training camp and ending with a season-ending torn ligament in his right wrist. Burrow appears to be fully healthy heading into 2024, and plans on playing in the preseason for the Bengals. With Burrow under center, Chase will be one of the most exciting receivers in fantasy football.
However, when backup Jake Browning is the Bengals quarterback, Chase is less productive — last year, Chase had just one game above 90 receiving yards when Browning was the starter.
Everything Burrow has said and done so far indicates that he should be able to support Chase as a highlight-generating WR1 this season, but fantasy managers should be wary of Chase’s floor without Burrow.
1.06: RB Bijan Robinson, Falcons
Robinson is coming off a promising rookie season where he totaled over 1,400 scrimmage yards en route to an overall RB9 finish. I think Robinson’s main concern heading into 2024 is the same as last year — a potential lack of volume due to the Falcons consistently rotating in backup Tyler Allgeier. Allgeier had 186 carries last season as the 1B to Robinson and clearly has shown his talent as a runner. Although the Falcons should hopefully shift to a more bellcow-focused scheme with head coach Arthur Smith no longer in town, it is certainly possible that Allgeier stays involved in the offense especially if the Falcons are worried about wearing Robinson down.
After a season where he had just two total carries inside the five-yard line, Robinson would need the Falcons offense to take an immense leap with Kirk Cousins if he wants to outperform his ADP while splitting time with Allgeier.
1.07: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown feels pretty bulletproof and I think he’s a value at eighth overall. The only path to fantasy disappointment I can envision for him is if Jared Goff and the Lions offense as a whole take a major step back after their NFC Championship Game run last year. That isn’t very likely as the Lions have a great supporting cast and were able to keep offensive wizard Ben Johnson as their play caller, but it is always a possibility with a non-elite quarterback like Goff.
St. Brown has little in the way of competition and should once again be close to the league leader in targets, but he would not see double-digit touchdowns if the Lions regress to an average offense.
1.08: WR Justin Jefferson, Vikings
For the first time since Justin Jefferson entered the league in 2020, the Vikings will have a Week 1 starting quarterback who is not Kirk Cousins. That quarterback is Sam Darnold, after J.J. McCarthy's season-ending injury. Darnold has had quite an unstable career since being drafted third overall in 2018 and has not yet proven he can be the starting QB on a playoff team. If the Vikings offense takes a step back as a result of shaky quarterback play, it would do some harm to Jefferson’s ceiling.
Jefferson should see enough volume to stay fantasy-relevant even in a bad offense, but he would not put up the same numbers as the other receivers in this tier who have a far better offensive supporting cast.
1.09: WR A.J. Brown, Eagles
The Eagles were one of the most confusing teams in football last year. After a 10-1 start, they dropped five of their last six regular season games and flamed out against the Bucs in the Wild Card round. During this slump, Brown was not very effective at all in fantasy, averaging just 8.9 points per game and notably catching zero touchdowns. It is unlikely that the Eagles maintain this form with an entire offseason to rest and recover, but it is worrisome that we have seen how low Brown’s potential floor could go in his current situation already. The Eagles also will be rolling out a new offense this year with Kellen Moore replacing Brian Johnson as offensive coordinator.
The switch should hopefully be a positive, as Moore has supported the Cowboys as one of the best offenses in the league these past few years. But, there is also always a chance that the new system is a bad fit for Jalen Hurts and company, hurting Brown’s fantasy value along the way.
1.10: RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Jonathan Taylor had a rather inconsistent 2023 season, going over 100 rushing yards just once in 10 games. He enters 2024 as the Colts starting running back, but I’m worried that he is being overdrafted. For one, I think that dual-threat quarterback Anthony Richardson will take a significant amount of red-zone carries away from Taylor. Richardson and Taylor never overlapped last season due to their respective injuries, but Richardson ran for four touchdowns in the four games he played. Mobile quarterbacks also historically do not check down to their running backs often because they can scramble on their own, so Taylor could see a decline in his receiving volume as well.
Finally, despite being only 25 years old, Taylor has quite a lot of miles on his legs. His 925 carries since 2020 rank third in the NFL, and that doesn’t count the 926 carries he saw in three years at Wisconsin. Taylor has ranked outside the top 40 in PFF rushing grade for two straight seasons, and could potentially hit the dreaded running back cliff sooner than expected. Put that all together, and fantasy managers should definitely proceed with caution before drafting Taylor.
1.11: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions
Jahmyr Gibbs has catapulted into the first round of drafts this year after an RB10 finish in his rookie season. The main thing stopping Gibbs from unabridged fantasy excellence this year is that David Montgomery will likely remain an important cog in the Lions offense. Montgomery was excellent in his own right last year, punching in 13 touchdowns en route to an RB13 finish. Gibbs has already proven he doesn’t need 300+ touches to be a great fantasy asset, but he will lack the ceiling that other running backs have if he continues to rotate series with Montgomery.
I’m confident that Gibbs’ pass-catching prowess will help him offset any potential Lions offensive regression that I mentioned above with St. Brown, but Gibbs’ upside will still be very closely correlated to Montgomery’s usage. It's also worth noting that Gibbs has dealt with a hamstring injury late in training camp, though HC Dan Campbell
1.12: WR Garrett Wilson, Jets
As you probably expected, Wilson’s red flag is the same as Breece Hall’s — if Aaron Rodgers isn’t his usual self, Wilson will have a very hard time living up to his ADP. Wilson has dealt with putrid quarterback play throughout his two-year career and has impressively still been able to produce 1,000-yard receiving seasons.
However, Wilson has just seven total receiving touchdowns, a number that needs to increase if he is going to finish as a WR1. There is no doubt that Wilson has the skills needed to put himself in the conversation as a top-five receiver, but he will need Rodgers to stay healthy and effective to earn the production that matches it.
The Bottom Line
Even though the first round is composed of the best players in football, there are plenty of ways things could go wrong in fantasy. I hope this article didn’t sound too much like a doom-and-gloom outlook on fantasy football’s most exciting players. Instead, I hope you use it as a guide to covering all the possible bases before deciding which stars to build your team around.
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This article was originally published on 4for4.com
Pranav is an undergraduate college student from Massachusetts. When he’s not cheering for the Patriots, he can be found looking at various NFL and NBA-related statistics. He has played fantasy football since he was seven and enjoys working with numbers and data.
