Fantasy Football Rankings: Running Back Tiers
We've been working our way through Shuffle Up season for the fresh fantasy football year, and now we're up to the big position, the running backs. If you could get an answer key before the season at just one position, this is the one you'd request.
Alas, there's no answer key to be had. It's the position most likely to be hit by injuries, and also the position most likely to be filled with useful players (even occasional stars) completely out of nowhere. We talked in the receiver section about how a Puka Nacua story this year is highly unlikely. But the Kyren Williams story could easily repeat somewhere. The running back paths to relevance aren't nearly as complicated; if we can solve the volume, we're most of the way there.
Running Back Overview/Strategy
Most of my roster builds are going to focus on one major runner; you can call it an Anchor RB or a Hero RB; I'm not caught up on labels. This player will likely be a first or second-round pick for me, but that's not an internal mandate. I'll try to stay flexible on draft day and could end up taking my anchor in Round 3 or Round 4 in the right situation.
Positional Shuffle Ups: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
After that, I'll look to gradually acquire depth as it comes to me, understanding that with most NFL clubs currently operating something resembling a backfield platoon, the pool of useful fantasy backs is deeper than it's ever been.
Tier 1: The Big Tickets
$43 Christian McCaffrey
$41 Breece Hall
$41 Bijan Robinson
$35 Jonathan Taylor
$31 Derrick Henry
$30 Jahmyr Gibbs
$28 Saquon Barkley
$28 Travis Etienne
It's a good thing the Niners have Trent Williams at left tackle because the rest of the offensive line is suspect entering training camp. McCaffrey bagged his first rushing title last year, but I suspect the club will look to shift back to the style of usage he enjoyed earlier in his career, heavily steering into his receiving chops and trying to make sure he's tackled by the lighter defenders on the other side, not the thick interior players. Still, I'll label McCaffrey the auto-pick at No. 1, tied to Kyle Shanahan schemes, a team likely to win double-digit games, and staring at tons of goal-line equity.
Taylor produced at an elite level in the second half of 2023, and there's a reasonable chance he could outscore all the backs this fall. Shane Steichen was obviously a home-run hire for the Colts; Indianapolis was 10th in scoring (albeit that finish outkicked other efficiency metrics) despite starting QB Anthony Richardson missing most of the year. Sure, some of the rushing goodies will go to Richardson and not Taylor, but Taylor is still in a good age pocket (he turned 25 in January) and the Colts have a top-10 offensive line on everyone's clipboard. I'll sign off on a Taylor pick in Round 1, and he's a notable steal if you can land him anywhere in Round 2.
Hall finished sixth in cumulative points last year (using a half-point PPR system) and was ninth in points per game — a nifty comeback from a torn ACL. Now, he steps into an offense that's notably improved at quarterback and on the offensive line. It's likely that Hall's receiving volume will decrease with Aaron Rodgers taking over. However, the overall offensive octane goes up with Rodgers playing, as the Jets will visit the red zone much more often. Hall has been the second back off the board in early Yahoo drafts, and that feels justified to me.
Henry is never going to be much as a receiver, but it's wise to remember that Gus Edwards scored 13 times for the Ravens last year, and Henry is obviously a much more powerful runner than Edwards is. For all of Lamar Jackson's athleticism and rushing chops, the Ravens don't prefer to steer him goal-line rushes, perhaps to keep him healthy. Henry is my favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns, and even a silly total between 16-20 wouldn't surprise me. Henry's managed double-digit scores in six straight seasons, and now he's tied to the best offense of his career.
Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
$27 Isiah Pacheco
$27 Kyren Williams
$25 De'Von Achane
$23 Josh Jacobs
$21 Rachaad White
$21 James Cook
$21 Joe Mixon
$20 Kenneth Walker
If you include the playoffs, Pacheco scored eight touchdowns in his final eight games of 2023, and he also had 31 receptions over that period. All of his per-opportunity metrics fell in his second season, but just being under the umbrella of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes offers Pacheco a safe floor in Reid's offense had a shockingly-inefficient year for most of 2023, but patches were applied for the second half and playoffs. Bet on positive regression this year, and bet on Pacheco if you can. I lowered his projection slightly after the Samaje Perine addition, but it wasn't a major shift.
The loss of Dave Canales is going to hurt the entire Tampa Bay offense, with Rachaad White a key part of that. White's value last year was mostly about volume. How much of a role is Bucky Irving ready for as a rookie? Tampa Bay is not an offense I'm proactively targeting this summer.
Achane is a speed merchant. Though you typically think of him scoring from distance, Miami used him more inside the 10-yard line than I remembered. Eight of Achane's 11 touchdowns came in this area, including five scores from the 4-yard line and in. Although Miami's backfield is crowded with capable runners, it's likely this team will continue to run at the goal line this year with volume to go around. Keep in mind that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are both just 5-foot-10, and there isn't a dynamic tight end on the roster. Meanwhile, Tua Tagovailoa has a mere 144 rushing yards (and zero rushing touchdowns) over the last two years.
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Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$17 Alvin Kamara
$16 James Conner
$16 David Montgomery
$16 Aaron Jones
$15 Rhamondre Stevenson
$15 Najee Harris
$14 Devin Singletary
$13 Zamir White
$13 Raheem Mostert
$12 D'Andre Swift
$12 Tony Pollard
$11 Javonte Williams
$10 Zack Moss
$10 Brian Robinson
$10 Tyjae Spears
The bottomless cup of receptions kept Kamara's value afloat, but his efficiency metrics are moving in the wrong direction and he steps into a concerning age-29 season. The Saints rarely steer short-yardage touchdowns to Kamara, and I suspect Kendre Miller is ready to be a contributor this year after a rookie year that was mostly a washout. You never say never to any player with talent, but it's unlikely Kamara will be on any of my rosters.
I was a lot higher on Zamir White a month ago, but the messy Vegas quarterback room has me concerned that could be a look-out-below offense. White is also battling more backfield competition than I initially expected.
Singletary was a surprise top 20 back last year, sparked by an excellent second half; maybe he can turn the trick again with the Giants. Singletary and HC Brian Daboll worked together during their Buffalo days, and the depth chart after Singletary is paper thin (Eric Gray was an ineffective rookie, while new rookie Tyrone Tracy was mostly a receiver in college). So long as Singletary holds an affordable RB30 tag in Yahoo, I'll continue to target him proactively.
Harris probably won't be as exciting or explosive as Warren, but Harris still profiles as the starter and the back headed for heavier usage. Pittsburgh upgraded the offensive line at the draft and new OC Arthur Smith wants to run the ball in the ground. Even with Harris heading into a lame-duck season (his fifth-year option wasn't picked up), the Steelers are likely to give him reliable volume on a weekly basis. Also complicating this situation: Warren suffered a hamstring injury in the second preseason game.
Montgomery will always be in a timeshare, but the Lions don't have a running QB or a third back of note, so Monty's touch share and goal-line equity appear safe. He's no longer a sexy pick, but sometimes boring veteran value is the jam. We should also note, early Yahoo drafters like Montgomery more than the global market. Montgomery has a Yahoo ADP in the late 40s; in NFFC formats, he's being drafted 20 picks later. (The Yahoo editorial consensus lands in the middle of those two goalposts.)
Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside
$9 Gus Edwards
$9 Jerome Ford
$9 *Jaylen Warren
$9 Chase Brown
$8 Ezekiel Elliott
$8 Austin Ekeler
$8 *Jonathon Brooks
$6 Zach Charbonnet
$6 Blake Corum
$6 Rico Dowdle
$5 *Nick Chubb
$5 Trey Benson
$5 Chuba Hubbard
$4 Jordan Mason
$4 Jaleel McLaughlin
Elliott's explosiveness has fallen off considerably, but he's maintained a strong conversion ratio when asked to handle short-yardage work. It's conceivable that Elliott could stumble for fewer than four yards a carry and still flirt with RB2 value because the Cowboys lean on him around the goal line. Sometimes, it's a matter of following the workload and not getting tripped up by the talent level.
It's rare that I consider insurance or handcuff backs before the season (I might shift around Halloween), but Mason might have a case in San Francisco, the clear No. 2 back in a great system. The line could be a problem, but maybe the coaching staff can figure that out, too. Let me be clear, I do like drafting upside backups at this position; I just tend to draft them away from my starters, to play for more upside. But sometimes I will be open to a pair of backs on the same team, starter and insurance, and the McCaffrey-Mason duo has me intrigued.
We think of Sean McVay as a coach who often employs a bell cow back, but the best coaches also tend to work talent-to-scheme — not the other way around. When the Rams spent a proactive pick on Blake Corum, it likely signaled that they don't want to push Kyren Williams to the same heavy workload he saw last year. Corum is thicker than Williams and also a little faster; if I'm going to attack the Rams backfield, I prefer Corum as a speculative pick as opposed to Williams as a pricy, expectant one.
Nick Chubb is a player to avoid, I can't be the injury optimist there. But it does mean Jerome Ford becomes a nifty value pick.
Tier 5: Bargain Bin RBs
$3 Tyler Allgeier
$3 Antonio Gibson
$3 Ty Chandler
$3 Khalil Herbert
$3 MarShawn Lloyd
$3 Bucky Irving
$3 J.K. Dobbins
$3 Ray Davis
$3 Tank Bigsby
$3 Jaylen Wright
$2 Justice Hill
$2 Roschon Johnson
$2 Dameon Pierce
$2 Miles Sanders
$2 Alexander Mattison
$2 Tyrone Tracy
$1 Kendre Miller
$1 Audric Estime
$1 Kimani Vidal
$1 Kenneth Gainwell
$1 D'Onta Foreman
$1 Trey Sermon