Fantasy Football Rankings: Wide Receiver Tiers
We’re working our way through the Shuffle Up series for the new fantasy football draft season. The dollar values you'll see below are unscientific in nature but reflect how I see the clusters of talent at the wide receiver position. Use these tiers however you like.
Positional Shuffle Ups: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Have some disagreements? Good, that’s why we have a game. I welcome your reasoned disagreement over at X: @scott_pianowski.
Wide Receiver Overview
This is a critical position for me because most of my roster builds are going to be dominated by early-round receivers. I prefer an Anchor RB (sometimes called Hero RB) build, where the idea is to get one significant runner you trust in an early round and otherwise focus on other positions. But for me, that non-RB focus is almost always going to be driven by the receiver chase.
The simple concept is this: I want a roster of wide receivers who start themselves.
I do not want to play the guessing game on which WR in the 40-60 range is going to have a playable WR15 type of week. Obviously, I will pick some bench receivers too, with the hope that some of them will emerge into credible weekly plays. But when we're talking about finding talent on the waiver wire, you're less likely to grab an impactful wideout than a key player at any other position.
I know, Puka Nacua happened last year. That's a major exception, not some new rule.
Tier 1: The Big Tickets
$43 CeeDee Lamb
$42 Tyreek Hill
$40 Justin Jefferson
$40 Amon-Ra St. Brown
$39 Ja'Marr Chase
$38 Garrett Wilson
$37 A.J. Brown
$37 Puka Nacua
Lamb's game climbed a level during an absurd closing kick last year; over his final 11 games, he posted a 101-1, 274-11 line, with touchdowns in nine of his starts. Now that he's signed, sealed and delivered, it's time to rock and roll.
Even after Kirk Cousins got hurt last year, head coach Kevin O'Connell found a way to dial up splashy plays. And Jefferson was plenty productive down the stretch, posting a 30-476-2 return over his final four games despite Minnesota's motley crew of quarterbacks. I get it, Sam Darnold makes some people nervous. But I'm going to trust Jefferson and O'Connell until they give me a reason not to.
Boom-or-bust is a way of life for most NFL receivers, so it's reassuring when you can roster someone like St. Brown, a consistency king. Brown racked up 164 targets last year with a median of nine per week, and he only dropped down to six targets once. The Lions largely brought the band back together on offense, keeping OC Ben Johnson and extending quarterback Jared Goff. The Sun God is one of the safest players to park your ADP investment.
Usually I fade holdout situations but the Chase situation might be different, given that he still has two years to go on his deal and the Bengals usually are an organization unlikely to budge in spots like this. I had to move him down a little bit, headed into the final draft weekend.
Tier 2: Legitimate Building Blocks
$32 Marvin Harrison Jr.
$31 Mike Evans
$31 Chris Olave
$31 Deebo Samuel
$29 Brandon Aiyuk
$27 Cooper Kupp
$27 Drake London
$25 DeVonta Smith
$24 Rashee Rice
$24 Nico Collins
$24 DK Metcalf
$24 Davante Adams
$23 Amari Cooper
$22 DJ Moore
$22 Jaylen Waddle
I've become more open to drafting Samuel through the summer, and even with Aiyuk now signed, I think Samuel is a more consistent and versatile fantasy pick. We also have to wonder what shape Aiyuk is in after missing training camp; Samuel had a holdout two years ago and suffered for it when the season started.
Adams was put on this earth to score touchdowns, but it takes a strong stomach to use an early pick on him considering the weakness of the Raiders quarterback room. Adams only had five touchdowns in his final 14 games last year, and now steps into his age-32 season. The Las Vegas quarterbacks were a difficult watch in the preseason; this is an offense to fade.
Collins versus Diggs is an interesting debate in the fantasy community, but I'll comfortably side with the player who's six years younger and already has game reps with the offense. The Collins genie is out of the bottle for good.
Like his teammate Kyle Pitts, Drake London has been allergic to the end zone through two years — just six spikes in 33 games. But I'm comfortable blaming most of that on the departed Arthur Smith and a lackluster group of Atlanta quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins and new OC Zac Robinson (from the Sean McVay tree) can take a sad song and make it better.
Harrison is the obvious No. 1 wideout in Arizona from the word go, and the lousy Cardinals defense could force a lot of shootout games. Throw in the dome-heavy schedule and Arizona looks like a possible carnival team for 2024.
Rice was a summer riser, as it appears the Chiefs might be able to kick his suspension until 2025 if they like, and maybe he won't be suspended at all. Rice and Isiah Pacheco both saw increased roles in the championship run last year, and Kansas City is likely to maintain that usage, if not build on it.
Tier 3: Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$21 Tee Higgins
$19 Michael Pittman
$18 George Pickens
$17 Zay Flowers
$17 Malik Nabers
$17 Terry McLaurin
$16 Tank Dell
$16 Stefon Diggs
$16 Christian Kirk
$15 Calvin Ridley
$15 Jayden Reed
$15 Chris Godwin
$14 Courtland Sutton
$13 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
My admiration for McLaurin hasn't always paid off in fantasy, but I'm forever going to blame the quarterbacks he's been tied to. Consider the QBs McLaurin has caught touchdowns from: Taylor Heinicke, Case Keenum, Sam Howell, Dwayne Haskins, the last gasp of Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz. Heck, if Brissett had played all of 2023, I bet McLaurin's fantasy value would rise 5-8 slots. Jayden Daniels is a quirky prospect, but there's definitely a ceiling there, and McLaurin could be in line for his best fantasy season.
Godwin's never had the touchdown upside of running mate Mike Evans, but the Buccaneers plan to use Godwin back in the slot this year, which will give him more layup targets from Baker Mayfield. Even if we accept that Godwin's never likely to have a double-digit touchdown season, there's no reason he can't get back to the 5-7 range that he was hitting regularly in the middle of his career. A league winner, no, but perhaps an underrated fantasy target.
Initially I was lower on Nabers than the market, holding onto skepticism that Daniel Jones can push a receiver into a star season right away. The Giants haven't managed a single 800-yard receiver during the five-year Jones era. But Brian Daboll seems ready to pepper Nabers with an absurd target share right from the jump, and I've reacted with a bumped price.
When I think of Tee Higgins, the phrase "capped upside" comes to mind. Joe Burrow has 97 touchdown passes in his career, and a modest 19 have gone to Higgins — Ja'Marr Chase is eight touchdowns ahead of Higgins despite playing one fewer season. It's curious that Higgins was actually more productive with Jake Browning than Burrow last year.
It might be prudent to throw out Higgins' stats last year, given that he and Burrow both dealt with injuries. Still, it's hard to unsee that Higgins was tied for 39th in half-point PPR scoring per game, finishing behind players like Adam Thielen and Kendrick Bourne. Higgins has never scored more than seven times in any season, never commanded more than 110 targets, and never gotten to 1,100 yards. I won't be looking to roster Higgins this summer unless he's slotted as my WR3.
Smith-Njigba's rookie year was an excused absence, as the Seattle offensive line fell apart in the opening game and JSN had two injuries himself. The line is better and the coaching staff likely upgraded; JSN is widely available as your fourth or fifth wideout but carries plenty of WR 2-3 upside.
Tier 4: Some Plausible Upside
$12 Diontae Johnson
$12 Keenan Allen
$12 Christian Watson
$11 Jordan Addison
$10 Tyler Lockett
$10 Rome Odunze
$10 *DeAndre Hopkins
$10 Khalil Shakir
$10 Brian Thomas Jr.
$9 Xavier Worthy
$8 Ladd McConkey
$8 Jameson Williams
$8 Mike Williams
$8 *Hollywood Brown
$7 Rashid Shaheed
$6 Brandin Cooks
$6 Keon Coleman
McConkey played in a run-first environment at Georgia so the switch to the NFL won't be a major adjustment; we know Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman want to run like crazy with the Chargers. But someone has to lead this roster in targets, and McConkey has a plausible case for 100-plus opportunities right out of the box. The depth chart ahead of McConkey is modest enough: unexciting veteran Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, who was a washout rookie last year.
It's not always easy to trust efficiency stats from a part-time player, but note Shakir made 13.6 yards per target in his limited opportunity last year. Surely that opportunity is now headed up; he's the only wide receiver on the Buffalo roster who's caught a pass from Josh Allen. Shakir is a perfect depth target for the second part of your draft.
If distance scoring is your thing, Shaheed is your type of player. He's scored nine pro touchdowns and they've all been distance specials, covering 76, 68, 58, 53, 45, 44, 39, 34 and 19 yards. Derek Carr's play likely caps Shaheed's upside, and it's hard to see Shaheed getting more than 85 targets. But I won't mind starting Shaheed here and there during bye-week season, and he's a fun pick for the best-ball managers.
Tier 5: Bargain Bin
$5 Romeo Doubs
$5 Jerry Jeudy
$5 Jakobi Meyers
$5 *Curtis Samuel
$5 Dontayvion Wicks
$4 Gabe Davis
$4 Joshua Palmer
$4 Josh Downs
$3 DeMario Douglas
$3 Marvin Mims
$3 Adam Thielen
$3 Darnell Mooney
$2 Ja'Lynn Polk
$2 Jahan Dotson
$2 Adonai Mitchell
$2 Quentin Johnston
$2 Rashod Bateman
$2 Demarcus Robinson
$2 Darius Slayton
$2 Xavier Legette
$1 Michael Wilson
$1 Jermaine Burton
$1 Wan'Dale Robinson
$1 Elijah Moore
$1 Roman Wilson
$1 Jalin Hyatt
$1 Javon Baker
$1 Malachi Corley
It's possible Wicks is far too low on this list; the Green Bay gridlock forces me to be conservative, but Wicks might have the chops to eventually be this team's alpha receiver. He has the physical profile to win on contested catches and in tight spaces, but he's not going to run away from defenders with any regularity. A good stash-and-see type of pick; his current Yahoo ADP is 132 . . . Dotson's role takes a big hit moving from Washington to Philadelphia.