Fantasy Football 2024: Year 2 NFL players who could break out
The 2024 NFL Draft yielded plenty of exciting rookies with an opportunity to make a significant impact on your fantasy football teams. However, just because we have some fresh names in the player pool doesn't mean there isn't some untapped potential from the 2023 class.
Here are six second-year players you will not want to ignore in your 2024 fantasy drafts. For posterity's sake, I've omitted players like Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Puka Nacua, each of whom has earned a 2024 ADP inside the top two rounds of drafts so far this offseason.
Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans
I could have spent some time talking about Anthony Richardson here, but given that he was drafted as the QB2 off the board in our latest Yahoo mock draft, I'd say the odds of you "ignoring" him are quite slim. So, instead, I decided to shine some light on one of my favorite late-round sleepers.
Levis had an up-and-down rookie campaign, but it started off blazing hot, going 19-of-29 for 238 passing yards, 4 TDs and no INTs. That hype fizzled quickly enough (as did the rest of the Titans offense), but even so, there are some reasons to be pretty excited for the limited flashes he did show in his rookie season.
Tennessee's front office made a concerted effort to upgrade just about every facet of the offense this offseason, signing C Lloyd Cushenberry (one of few prized centers in this FA class) while drafting OT J.C. Latham with the seventh overall pick in this year's draft. They signed former Cowboys RB Tony Pollard for another element of explosion to pair with second-year RB Tyjae Spears (more on him in a moment!).
Finally, they made some massive upgrades to their receiving corps by signing free agents Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to pair with DeAndre Hopkins. Now, with Treylon Burks likely working as their WR4, this offense might just have the gas to cook.
Levis has an absolute cannon of an arm and wasn't afraid to show it as a rookie, leading all QBs with a 22.4% deep pass rate per PFF. Now that he finally has some receivers to catch those deep balls, Levis' fantasy upside might just become reality. Oh, and don't forget, he's also got a pretty sneaky combo of size and athleticism that could make him a viable rushing threat around the red zone, à la Josh Allen.
Remember when Levis used to run the ball? Good times
2021 total rushing yards for Levis: 376
2022 rushing yards for Levis up to this point: negative 71 pic.twitter.com/Jr9fPCJCoM— Cody Couch (@Couch_29) November 2, 2022
Kendre Miller, RB, New Orleans Saints
Forget about Kendre Miller's rookie season; pretend it never happened. The third-round pick had a rocky start to his career, starting out the offseason rehabbing an MCL injury suffered late in the college football season. That recovery was complicated by a re-aggravation in the preseason, followed by a hamstring injury just ahead of Week 1 and an eventual ankle injury that forced him to miss Weeks 10-17.
When he returned in Week 18, looking healthy for the first time since his final season at TCU, fantasy managers got their first look at Miller's potential upside. Miller totaled 73 yards on a season-high 13 attempts, averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per carry. He showcased the perfect blend of burst, wiggle and elusive play-making ability, finishing the day with a 38% missed forced tackle rate and 3.8 yards after contact per attempt — both impressive marks.
RB Kendre Miller saw 14 opps in Week 18 vs ATL.
He doesn't turn 22 for another 37 days. And if it helps your brain, include him in this year's rookie RB class after he missed 9 games last year. pic.twitter.com/oaWE0kSnfp— Kyle Borgognoni (@kyle_borg) May 5, 2024
Though Alvin Kamara's role as a receiver should be secure coming off a year where he led all RBs with 6.6 targets per game, his declining efficiency could put Miller in a prime spot for early-down work to make his upside worth a late-round flier at his current ADP of RB50.
Tyjae Spears, RB, Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans let Derrick Henry walk in free agency, leaving a world of opportunity for the heir apparent. Many assumed that would be second-year back Tyjae Spears, but once the Titans signed RB Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract in free agency, those hopes quickly dissipated.
What if we gave up too quickly?
Despite the wise advice to "follow the money" when projecting touches at the running back position, I can't help but look back at Spears' efficiency as a rookie and wonder if there might be room for both he and Pollard to have a role behind this newly-upgraded Titans offensive line.
95 seconds of Tyjae Spears making dudes miss pic.twitter.com/qw26A2eyG1
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 15, 2024
As a rookie (and Derrick Henry's backup), Spears managed an impressive 838 scrimmage yards and three TDs, ranked fourth among RBs with a 50% snap share with 1.01 fantasy points per touch. Spears tied with Miami Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert to lead that same cohort with a 26% missed forced tackle rate while finishing sixth in yards after contact per attempt (3.15).
Spears had some medical concerns coming out of Tulane, which meant that he may have never been meant for a true workhorse role in the NFL. However, the efficiency he displayed in his rookie season should be enough to have even the most confident Pollard fans looking Spears' way for a late-round flier; he's currently being drafted in Round 11 of 10-team leagues according to preseason ADP.
Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers offense took a surprising leap in 2023 on the back of QB Jordan Love in his first year as a starter. Now, fantasy managers are left to dissect the receiving corps — one full of youth and riddled with inexperience, with the Packers currently sitting with the lowest average age (25.2) of any roster in the league. That inexperience and lack of a true WR1 had Love spreading his targets throughout the offense fairly evenly, without a single player exceeding an 18% target share between the regular and postseasons.
Given what we saw from Love in Year 1 as a starter, there's a non-zero chance that none of these wideouts sees 120+ targets in 2024. If that's the case, then fantasy managers would be wise to avoid investing any significant draft capital in the WR corps, and rather take a shot on the lowest-cost option. That option is 2023 fifth-round pick Dontayvion Wicks, who's currently being drafted as the WR58 off the board.
More Fantasy Football analysis
Wicks never had more than seven targets in a single game, but his advanced metrics make the case for a potential to earn a more significant target share in Year 2. Per PFF, Wicks ranked in the 70th percentile or higher for wide receivers in receiving grade (77.0), separation percentage (82% open target rate), yards per route run (1.94) and yards after the catch per reception (5.3).
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks
Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 63-628-4 stat line as a rookie pales in comparison to the record-setting clinic Puka Nacua put on last year, but don't give up on JSN just yet.
Things were up-and-down for Smith-Njigba as a rookie. His 63.9 PFF receiving grade and 10.4 yards per reception average both ranked sixth-lowest among WRs with 75 or more targets on the year. He wasn't necessarily utilized in a way that would bode particularly well for an efficient campaign, however, tied for the third-lowest aDOT (6.4) of that same cohort. The offense just never fully utilized his skills in the intermediate areas of the field to their fullest potential.
So, what's different in 2024? Well, a lot of things. First is the transition to a new coaching staff. The organization hired defensive guru Mike Macdonald as their new head coach, who went on to hire Ryan Grubb (formerly of the Washington Huskies) as his new offensive coordinator. As analyst Matt Harmon points out, there could be a more effective role for Smith-Njigba in Grubb's offense that hadn't come to fruition in his rookie year:
As discussed on the pod with @robertmays, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja’Lynn Polk definitely some similar strengths on their route charts in #ReceptionPerception
We could see JSN more effectively utilized in that intermediate area in Ryan Grubb’s offense. https://t.co/RiTvFeFJeS pic.twitter.com/xAzJCwoZa2— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) July 12, 2024
Smith-Njigba might also see an increased opportunity for routes along the outside as veteran Tyler Lockett enters his age-32 season. Lockett has shown a decline in efficiency as of late, seeing a decrease in yards per reception, yards after the catch per reception and yards per route run in each of the past two seasons. As a rookie, JSN ran just 31% of his routes split out wide versus from the slot (69%) — not dissimilar from his usage at OSU, but there's undoubtedly some untapped potential along the perimeter with proven ability in contested catch situations.
Lastly, should you need one more reason not to give up on JSN heading into Year 2, remember that there was once a time he was OSU's best and most productive receiver — while playing in the same lineup as superstars Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave:
The greatest WR performance of all time
Jaxon Smith Njigba 🌹pic.twitter.com/ev2pBnwb2W— Woody (@woodyVSworld) July 5, 2024
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Dalton Kincaid is currently being drafted as the sixth tight end off of the board, but I'd argue, based on the opportunity he'll see in the Bills offense in 2024, it's still not high enough. Remember, Buffalo did not just lose Stefon Diggs this offseason (who has accounted for 728 of Josh Allen's 2,612 total pass attempts dating back to 2020). They also lost veteran Gabe Davis in free agency, who has functioned as Allen's second-most targeted player (339) in that same span.
With that, Kincaid finds himself in an interesting position as one of the very few holdovers from last season's receiving corps to have played a significant role, bringing that rapport he built with Allen into Year 2. As a rookie, Kincaid already displayed an ability to earn targets; his 19.3% target rate on routes run ranked second on the team, only behind Stefon Diggs, while his 90.1% open target rate ranked fourth among all tight ends, per PFF.
Kincaid got off to a slow start as a rookie but ended the year relatively hot with five or more targets in each of the Bills' final four games, including the playoffs, averaging just under 69 receiving yards per game in that span. Don't be surprised if that usage spikes even further with the potential to earn an increased target share, and we see his upside as a receiver come to fruition in 2024.