No. 4 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 3 seed Detroit Lions

The coaches: Lions-Dan Campbell (29-33-1 overall, 24-26-1 with Lions, 1-0 in playoffs); Bucs-Todd Bowles (43-58 overall, 17-17 with Bucs, 1-1 in playoffs).

Last game: Lions beat the Los Angeles Rams, 24-23; Bucs beat the Philadelphia Eagles, 32-9.

Last meeting: Oct. 15, 2023: Lions won, 20-6.

Key matchups

Lions C Frank Ragnow vs. Bucs DT Vita Vea: When Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was asked Thursday about preparing for Tampa’s exotic blitz packages, he said he had a “secret weapon” to help.

“Frank Ragnow,” Johnson said. “We put a lot on his plate, both run game and pass game, so he does a great job getting fronts identified for the rest of the offensive line and in the protection game with the running backs and the tight ends. So, he really is a key cog in what we do and I can’t say enough good things about him.”

Ragnow’s intelligence is a big reason the Lions ranked third in the NFL in sack percentage allowed in the regular season, but his biggest challenge Sunday could come from Vea, a 347-pound wrecking ball of a nose tackle who had a career-high eight tackles for loss this season. Tampa creates a lot of one-on-one matchups with its odd-man front. If the Lions want to run the ball better than they did in their Week 6 win, it starts with stopping Vea.

Bucs WR Trey Palmer vs. Lions CB Kindle Vildor: The Bucs had two 1,000-yard receivers this season in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That duo rightfully dominates the target share, with Evans standing apart as a mismatch problem because of his size and strength.

Palmer is the team’s speed merchant, though, and Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield targeted him a season-high seven times in that first game against the Lions. Palmer caught two of those passes for 47 yards, but was open twice more for would-be touchdowns that Mayfield simply overthrew.

The Lions have allowed a 100-yard receiver in four straight games and gave up touchdowns of 50 and 38 yards last week. Tampa likes to max protect to take shots downfield, and when the Lions blitz in those situations, that means one-on-one coverage for Palmer. Whether it’s Vildor, Cam Sutton, Brian Branch or someone else, the Lions can’t let Palmer beat them for big plays.

Scouting report

Lions run offense vs. Bucs run defense

The Lions were one of the best rushing teams in the NFL in the regular season (135.9 ypg), but managed a season-low 40 yards against the Bucs in October and haven’t run the ball particularly well the past three weeks.

There were some extenuating circumstances in that Week 6 game. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs and left guard Jonah Jackson were out with injuries, and David Montgomery left early after hurting his ribs. But Tampa is a committed run defense with length on the edge, size inside and a scheme that often calls for extra defenders in the box.

Gibbs played only about a third of the Lions’ offensive snaps last week, so look for him to be more involved Sunday. He’s a home run threat and the Lions are more dangerous when he touches the ball. Montgomery called Tampa a challenging defense, but added “we’re a really good offense, too, so go out there and put our best foot forward and handle business.” Edge: Bucs

Lions pass offense vs. Bucs pass defense

The Lions did have success through the air vs. Tampa. Jared Goff threw for a season-high 353 yards and Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 12 passes for 124 yards, and made the game’s signature play on a catch-and-run touchdown late in the first half.

The Lions did a good job that game of using tempo to keep Tampa’s pass rush at bay, and Johnson schemed St. Brown into coverage mismatches against the blitz. The Bucs don’t have a singular dominant edge rusher, so they use scheme to get home. But they do have a talented secondary led by playmaking safety Antoine Winfield Jr., and a linebacking corps that covers tight ends well.

Goff was lights out in the Lions’ playoff opener last week, completing 22 of 27 passes with a couple throwaways and one touchdown. The Lions have won five straight when Goff has played turnover-free football so it’s imperative he plays another clean game. Edge: Lions

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Bucs run offense vs. Lions run defense

Playoff Lenny (Fournette) isn’t walking through the door to help Tampa’s league-worst rushing attack, though the Bucs had moderate success on the ground against the Eagles last Monday.

Rachaad White is the workhorse in the backfield, tied for second in the NFL with 272 carries this season, which was 223 more than any other running back on Tampa’s roster. White averaged a modest 3.6 yards per carry and was the only Bucs back to score a touchdown this year. Mayfield can extend plays with his feet, and Tampa tries to manufacture rushing yards with an end-around or two to its receivers every game.

The Lions finished second in the NFL in rush defense (88.8 ypg) and didn’t allow a back to gain even 70 yards all season. They stymied White in the first game (seven carries, 26 yards) and are better now from a personnel standpoint with Brian Branch, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Josh Paschal all back from injury. Edge: Lions

Bucs pass offense vs. Lions pass defense

Mayfield has had a renaissance of sorts in Tampa, similar to the resurrection Goff has experienced in Detroit. Playing for his fourth team in three years, Mayfield, the No. 1 pick of the 2018 draft, set career-highs with 4,044 yards passing and 28 touchdowns. He wasn’t great, but teammates love him because of his moxie and he took good care of the football down the stretch.

Evans and Godwin have been one of the NFL’s best receiving tandems for a half-decade. Evans led the NFL with 13 touchdown catches this season, though he had a quiet game against the Lions in Week 6 when Mayfield attempted a whopping 11 passes of 20-plus yards downfield. The Bucs only hit on two of those throws, but they won’t hesitate to challenge the Lions secondary deep.

The Lions gave up the third-most passing yards per play in the regular season and allowed a couple long touchdowns last week, but their secondary made big plays in the red zone and on decisive downs late in the game. Aidan Hutchinson is on a tear with seven sacks the past three weeks, and could get some help Sunday with James Houston back from injured reserve. Edge: Bucs

Special teams

The Bucs and Lions rank 19^th and 20^th, respectively, in Rick Gosselin’s special teams rankings this season, but the Lions’ spot doesn’t fully reflect their aggressiveness on special teams. They ranked first in the NFL at opposing drive start (23.7-yard line) and punter Jack Fox has strung together a couple of impressive games. The Lions haven’t attempted many long field goals this year, but Michael Badgley proved capable when he drilled a 54-yarder last week. Punt returner Kalif Raymond will miss his second straight game, and teams always have to be aware of the Lions and their fake punts.

The Bucs have a more proven kicker from distance if this game comes down to a late field goal, as Chase McLaughlin made seven of eight field goals of 50-plus yards this season, but they haven’t been as dangerous on special teams overall. Return man Deven Thompkins averaged 9.4 yards per punt return but had two muffs. Jake Camarda grossed 54.2 yards on six punts in Week 6, but his net average for the season was dinged by nine touchbacks. Edge: Lions

Prediction

This game won’t be the cakewalk some have made it out to be. The Bucs have a really good defense, a couple dangerous receivers and they’ve played good football since the calendar turned to December. Tampa has allowed nine points total in its past two games, and had a plus-eight turnover differential for the regular season. The Lions are the better team, though, with more avenues to win, as they proved in October. Stop the run, and Goff and St. Brown can hurt you through the air. Devote too many resources to St. Brown, and Gibbs or Sam LaPorta are liable to have big days.

The real ace in the hole, though, is the edge the Lions get from playing at home. Last week’s game was as raucous an environment as I’ve ever seen at an NFL stadium and the party this week should be even bigger. I think the Lions give their home crowd plenty to cheer about early, and Mayfield makes one costly mistake that sends the Lions to the NFC championship game for the first time since January of 1992. Pick: Lions 28, Bucs 20.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him @davebirkett.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why I think Detroit Lions beat Bucs, advance to NFC championship game