The Detroit Lions play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs at 3 p.m. Sunday at Ford Field. The Lions beat the Bucs, 20-6, in Tampa, Florida, on Oct. 15 despite playing without four key starters: Jahmyr Gibbs, Brian Branch, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Jonah Jackson.

The lopsided final score of that game, and the Bucs’ mediocre 9-8 regular-season record, has some believing the rematch gives the Lions a free pass to next week’s NFC championship game.

I went back and rewatched the first Lions-Bucs game Tuesday to get a better handle on what to expect this week. Tampa has a good defense, one that bottled up the Lions’ Gibbs-less rushing attack, though the offense had opportunities to put up more points than the 20 it did which were a season-low).

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I still think the Lions are the better team, have the better roster and will win the game. But it won’t be the cakewalk some are making it out to be. Here are four thoughts from my Tuesday film review.

Baker ball

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been a serviceable starter in Tampa this year, throwing for 4,044 yards and 28 touchdowns with 10 interceptions during the regular season, but he did not have a good game against the Lions in Week 6.

Mayfield was 19-for-37 for 206 yards with one interception, and he missed three would-be touchdown passes against a Lions secondary that has undergone radical personnel changes since that game.

Mayfield’s first miss came early in the first quarter, when Kerby Joseph, playing the deep right hash in a split-safety look, bit hard on a run fake as Mike Evans ran past him down the middle of the field. Mayfield saw Evans a tad late, Isaiah Buggs tipped Mayfield’s pass at the line of scrimmage and Will Harris made a diving interception on the deflection to set up the Lions’ first field goal. If not for Buggs’ deflection, the Lions would have had to dig out of an early 7-0 hole.

Mayfield overthrew Bucs receiver Trey Palmer on another deep shot on the first play after the two-minute warning just before halftime. The Bucs kept seven blockers in to give Mayfield time to throw downfield, and the Lions again had a coverage bust out of a two-deep zone look.

Palmer, one of the fastest players in last year’s draft, ran a deep over route from slot right out of a three-receiver set. Tracy Walker, the safety manning the right hash, came up to play a deep curl by Chris Godwin, the lone receiver split left, which left Joseph alone to chase Palmer from the left hash.

The Lions had taken a 10-3 lead one possession earlier they carried to the locker room at halftime, but they could have easily been down 17-10.

Mayfield’s third miss came three plays after another Lions score, when the Bucs broke the huddle with tempo on a third-and-2 play and snapped the ball as the Lions were settling into their defensive spots.

Palmer was the point player in a three-receiver bunch left out of a three-by-one set, with Will Harris covering him in the slot and Joseph the lone safety in the middle of the field. Palmer got a clean release inside Harris, but Mayfield threw the ball a touch long over Palmer’s head toward the sideline. Had Mayfield hit him in stride, Palmer would have waltzed into the end zone.

Mayfield is a flawed quarterback. He won’t turn into Patrick Mahomes overnight. But he has connected with Palmer for scores of 54 and 56 yards in the past three weeks and should have opportunities deep Sunday against the Lions defense.

New faces, new places

The Lions haven’t been great in the secondary all season. They ranked 27^th against the pass this year and have allowed 100-yard receivers each of the past four weeks (Puka Nacua, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Jefferson again).

Tampa has two dangerous 1,000-yard receivers to contend with in Evans and Chris Godwin, but the Lions have been better in the secondary of late thanks to a handful of personnel changes and the return to health of Gardner-Johnson and Branch.

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Of the five defensive backs who played defensive snaps against the Bucs, Harris, Walker and cornerback Jerry Jacobs are no longer in the rotation, replaced by Branch, Gardner-Johnson, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Kindle Vildor.

Lions coach Dan Campbell acknowledged Monday his secondary has to do a better job limiting explosive plays in the pass game, but he said he was proud of the way the group responded to the long touchdowns it allowed in last week’s wild-card win over the Los Angeles Rams.

“They caught a couple of looks on us,” Campbell said. “They’re checking into some of these plays to where they create interference, some of these man-beaters. And I think we can handle those things better. We know what’s coming if they’re going to do that to us, we can find a better way to get through some of those.”

Blitz happy

The Bucs had the third-highest blitz percentage in the NFL, bringing an extra rusher on 40.1% of their snaps in the regular season, according to Pro Football Reference. They play out of an odd-man front, often with five defenders across the line of scrimmage, which helps them stop the run and disguise their pressure packages.

Under aggressive head coach Todd Bowles, Tampa is not just a third-down blitz team. Against the Lions, the Bucs rushed five defenders on five of their first six first-down plays outside of the red zone and brought six on both of the Lions’ third-and-1s. One of those plays resulted in a holding penalty, the other in an incomplete pass, and the Lions’ only first-half touchdown came on the series Tampa repeatedly rushed four on first down.

“That defense is fricking good,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff said after the first game. “The amount of pressure they bring makes it hard, and they’re good at their pressures, it’s sound. Yeah, I think once we kind of settled in, we kind of knew what they wanted to do defensively and we were able to pick it up a little bit better as the game went on. And then I thought Ben (Johnson) did a hell of a job calling it in certain ways when we were expecting it and weren’t expecting pressure and trying to take advantage of that.”

Johnson did a good job scheming Amon-Ra St. Brown into one-on-one looks against the blitz. St. Brown (12 catches, 124 yards) had a nice gain on a receiver screen to the side vacated by the blitz on the Lions’ first play from scrimmage and scored on a 27-yard catch-and-run against a five-man rush late in the first half.

The Lions weren’t great on first down in the first meeting, averaging just 3.6 yards on first-and-10. They’ll need to start drives better or they’ll be in for another close one this week.

Run DM/JG

The Lions had their worst rushing day of the season in Week 6, gaining 40 yards on 22 carries. They should be better Sunday if for no other reason than Gibbs and David Montgomery presumably will be available the entire game.

Montgomery had six carries for 14 yards before leaving with a rib injury late in the first half, and Gibbs did not play because of an ankle sprain. Craig Reynolds finished the game as the Lions’ top back (with Devine Ozigbo as his backup). He made the key block on St. Brown’s touchdown, but he also missed a blitz pickup on a sack at the end of the first half and might have scored on a long screen pass had he cut his run outside.

The Bucs had a top-five run defense this season. Vita Vea is a load up front, Lavonte David is still one of the NFL’s best linebackers and Antoine Winfield is as good in run support as any safety in the league.

But Gibbs at least gives the Lions’ a home run threat in their backfield, which is something they lacked in Week 6 when their longest carry went for 8 yards. And Montgomery is a wear-you-down type who's solid in pass protection.

If the Lions need to salt away a close game with their four-minute offense, they’ll be in better position to do so with Montgomery and Gibbs splitting the workload.

Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions film review vs. Tampa Bay Bucs: RBs key in rematch