Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals prediction, keys to avoiding upset in season opener
ORCHARD PARK - Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray has certainly had moments when he has flashed the talent that prompted the Cardinals to make him the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft.
And the Buffalo Bills saw that up close and personal the only time they have faced Murray as he made one of the most unforgettable plays in the history of both the Bills and Cardinals.
It was the afternoon of Nov. 15, 2020, right in the heart of the pandemic at a mostly empty State Farm Stadium, and Josh Allen had just thrown a touchdown pass to his new best friend, Stefon Diggs, giving the Bills a 30-26 lead with 34 seconds left to play.
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But in one of the most inexplicable endings the Bills have ever been a part of, which is saying something, the defense allowed three straight Murray completions to situate the ball at the Buffalo 43, and then came a fourth completion.
You remember that one, right, Sean McDermott?
“Yeah, I remember that game. Thanks,” McDermott said with a wry smile when reminded of it Wednesday. How could he forget?
A Hail Mary into the end zone from Murray with two seconds remaining, after he had narrowly escaped a sack, and despite Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer being right there to knock it down, somehow DeAndre Hopkins caught the ball to win the game for Arizona.
Then and now, it is one of the worst defeats the Bills have ever suffered, and for a franchise that has been defined by nicknamed losses such as Wide Right, Music City Miracle, and 13 Seconds, it had a new one: The Hail Murray.
Since then, due partly to a knee injury that cost him chunks of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Murray has fallen short of the superstar status everyone figured was on the horizon. But Sunday afternoon, when Murray comes to Highmark Stadium for the first time as the Cardinals meet the Bills in the season opener, he is still a player who is capable of ruining the start of a new Buffalo football season, just like he ruined that game four years ago.
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Here’s my preview of the game:
LeSean McCoy isn’t impressed by Murray
The former Bills running back is into his second career as one of the hosts of an FS1 daily sports talk show along with former NFL players Emmanuel Acho, James Jones and Chase Daniel. McCoy has made several interesting comments and one of his most recent denigrated Murray.
Last week, Murray spoke to Cardinals media and was apparently prompted to defend his achievements and he began reeling them off. “To go 43-0 in high school in Texas, some are gonna say, ‘Oh, it’s high school,’ that’s cool, but nobody else has done it. Go to college, win the Heisman. Get drafted No. 1 overall to the NFL, get drafted No. 9 overall to MLB. Again, no one’s ever done it. Offensive rookie of the year, two-time Pro Bowler. And I’m not 6-foot-7, 230 (pounds). I don’t throw the ball 85 yards. I’m already behind the eight ball, I can’t afford to take any shortcuts, no pun intended.”
McCoy was not impressed and he basically asked where has that resume gotten Murray in his NFL career, one that he called “mid” meaning he’s a middle tier player. Wow, pretty harsh.
McCoy may be underrating Murray a bit, but it’s not an outrageous take. If you look across the breadth of his five seasons, the last two largely ruined because of a knee injury, Murray has an underwhelming 28-36-1 record as a starter, he’s never thrown for 4,000 yards in a season, and he’s had a passer rating above 90 only twice.
Even with talented offensive players around him such as WRs Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk, and RBs Kenyan Drake and James Conner, consistent winning has been hard to come by in Arizona. However, in his last full season, 2021, Murray led the Cardinals to an 11-6 record and an NFC wild-card berth, and now he’s completely healthy and probably playing with a chip on his shoulder. The Bills should be very wary, no matter what old friend McCoy thinks.
What will WR Marvin Harrison’s debut look like?
Now Murray has another talented weapon in the form of Harrison, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2024 draft who will be, without question, one of the most fascinating NFL rookies this year.
He comes into the league with so much fanfare, mostly because of the otherworldly talent he displayed at Ohio State, but also because his father of the same is a Pro Football Hall of Famer who caught 1,102 passes in his 13-year career, all with the Colts following a standout stay at Syracuse. The question becomes, how soon will junior begin to deliver on all the hype?
Harrison will be a handful, but maybe the Bills will be catching him at the right time since it’s first NFL game following a preseason when coach Jonathan Gannon made the curious decision to use Harrison for all of three snaps. He is, after all, a rookie, and he might have benefited from a little break-in period.
Then again, maybe not, especially given the Bills’ tenuous situation at safety where Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp are starting.
Can the Buffalo Bills’ defense get off the field?
There is no doubt what the Cardinals are going to try to do on offense. They are a good running team, one that led the NFL last season in yards per attempt at 5.0. On the road against a superior opponent, they will attempt to pound it on the ground, milk the clock, and keep Josh Allen off the field, and they are equipped to do it against a Buffalo defense that ranked tied for 28th in yards allowed per rushing attempt (4.7) last season.
Conner is a tough runner coming off 1,040 yards in 13 games last season, and they drafted RB Trey Benson in the third round and he’s going to have a role. And of course Murray is a dangerous threat, not only on scrambles but on designed runs. Think Allen, only in a much smaller, quicker body.
The Bills can’t allow the Cardinals to establish their ball control run game, and when it comes to third down, they have to be better than they were last season when they ranked 18th in the league as opponents converted 38.5% of the time. And speaking of third downs, stop doing this: There were 91 plays in 2023 where the Bills had a team in third-and-7 or longer, and they allowed 20 first downs. That’s not good enough.
Josh Allen could be in for a big day
The Bills will be facing many very good defenses this season; it comes with the territory when you’re playing a first-place schedule. The Cardinals do not have a good defense.
Last year they ranked 31st in the NFL last year in completion percentage allowed at 68.6%, and like the Bills, they were tied for 28th in average rushing yards allowed per attempt (4.7) so they didn’t really stop anything. Not surprisingly, Arizona ranked 31st in points allowed at 26.8, and the prospects for 2024 aren’t much brighter.
Over the summer pass rushers BJ Ojulari, a 2023 second-round pick, and 2024 first-round pick Darius Robinson, got hurt and are on injured reserve, and the Cardinals really don’t have anyone else who can generate heat on Allen. They’re also suspect at cornerback, so unless their fine safety tandem of Budda Baker and Jalen Thompson play out of their minds, Allen should have plenty of opportunities in the passing game.
This will be a huge talking point come Monday, how the new-look passing game fares and how Allen integrates all the pieces, notably Curtis Samuel and Keon Coleman.
Injury report: Mostly clean in Week 1
The Bills won’t have Matt Milano who is on injured reserve, same as Ojulari and Robinson for the Cardinals. Arizona is also without WR Zay Jones, the ex-Bill who is currently suspended.
In terms of active players, the Bills likely won’t dress rookie edge rusher Javon Solomon (oblique) but he probably wasn’t dressing even if he was healthy. On Friday, though, edge rusher Dawuane Smoot popped up on the report with a toe injury and he did not practice, so his status will need to be monitored heading into game day.
And for Arizona, two rookies, WR Xavier Weaver (oblique) and third-string TE Tip Reiman (ankle) may not play. None of these players figured to have an impact on the game.
Sal’s prediction: Bills 27, Cardinals 17
The Bills are definitely a team in a bit of a transition phase so nothing should be considered a sure thing, not even a season opener at home against the Cardinals. But Allen will find a way to get it done in a game he knows he can’t stub his toes in because of how difficult the schedule will be the rest of the way, particularly the next five weeks.
Bills vs. Cardinals: News and notes
∎ Partially because he has faced the Cardinals only once, they are one of two teams McDermott has not beaten as Bills coach. The other is the Eagles (0-2).
∎ McCoy was one of the stars of the game the last time the Cardinals were in Orchard Park. In 2016 he rushed for 110 yards and two TDs in a 33-18 Bills victory.
∎ Since the start of 2019 when Murray entered the league, he ranks third in the NFL in rushing yards by a QB with 2,448, just behind Allen who’s second at 2,980. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson is far and away No. 1 at 4,563.
∎ This year, the Bills will be seeking a fifth straight season of at least 11 wins, something they’ve never done more than four years in a row.
∎ Allen has been great against NFC opponents, posting a career 20-6 record and since 2018, his 72 total TDs are the most of any AFC player against NFC teams.
∎ Since their 2021 playoff season when they went 11-6 and finished second in the NFC West, the Cardinals are 8-26 the past two years.
Buffalo Bills 2024 schedule
Week 1: Sunday, Sept . 8, vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m.
Week 2: Thursday, Sept. 12, at Miami Dolphins, 8:15 p.m.
Week 3: Monday, Sept. 23, vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 7:30 p.m.
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 29, at Baltimore Ravens, 8:20 p.m.
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 6, at Houston Texans, 1 p.m.
Week 6: Monday, Oct. 14, at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 20, vs Tennessee Titans, 1 p.m.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 27, at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.
Week 9: Sunday, Nov. 3, vs. Miami Dolphins, 1 p.m.
Week 10: Sunday, Nov. 10, at Indianapolis Colts, 1 p.m.
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 17, vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 4:25 p.m.
Week 12: Nov. 24, BYE WEEK
Week 13: Sunday Dec. 1, vs. San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 8, at Los Angeles Rams, 4:25 p.m.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 15, at Detroit Lions, 4:25 p.m.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 22, vs. New England Patriots, 1 p.m.
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 29, vs. New York Jets, 1 p.m.
Week 18: Sunday, Jan. 5, at New England Patriots, TBD
Sal Maiorana has covered the Buffalo Bills for four decades including 35 years as the full-time beat writer for the D&C, and he has written numerous books about the history of the team. He can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com, and you can follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana. https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Cardinals prediction, keys to NFL Week 1 game
