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The 8 most likely Olympic men's basketball MVP candidates (LeBron James!), ranked

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

The men's basketball tournament at the 2024 Paris Olympics is heading into its final phase and several players stand out as MVP candidates.

Considering that Team USA remains the heavy favorite to win gold, most of the leading contenders play for the United States. However, if they are upset, there are some other individuals who deserve serious consideration for their efforts thus far as well.

To put things in perspective, we gathered the latest odds and some advanced statistics to judge how everyone has played.

As we mentioned before last NBA season, we asked a basketball data scientist who works for an NBA team to tell us which was the best statistic using just box-score data. This individual recommended that we use Daily RAPM Estimate (DRE) by Kevin Ferrigan.

You can learn more about the metric via Nylon Calculus. But the shortened version is that it’s like Player Efficiency Rating (PER) but weights derived from RAPM (which you can learn more about here) instead of just arbitrary weights.

Attached to each player are their current odds via DraftKings as well as their overall ranking in regressed DRE per 40 minutes during the Olympics. We also included their ranking among all players thus far in HoopsHype's Global Rating, which you can learn more about here.

All statistics are via fiba.basketball unless noted otherwise.

8. LeBron James

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: United States

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 9

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 11

Odds: -170

The player most likely to win MVP is Team USA's flag bearer, LeBron James. He is the leading scorer in transition offense during the Olympics, per Synergy, and also has recorded the most dunks (8) among all players remaining. He currently ranks second among all players in assists during the tournament thus far.

7. Kevin Durant

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: United States

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 10

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 4

Odds: +500

Kevin Durant made history during the 2024 Paris Olympics, passing Lisa Leslie to become Team USA's overall leading scorer. Durant is also one of the most efficient scorers in this tournament, per Synergy, averaging 1.45 points per possession.

6. Anthony Edwards

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: United States

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 8

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 3

Odds: +900

One of the rising stars in the tournament is Team USA's Anthony Edwards, who has a legitimate chance to win MVP at the Olympics. Projected as the future face of USA men's basketball, he is already the leading scorer for the best team in the world.

5. Franz Wagner

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: Germany

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 6

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 15

Odds: +1300

If the United States does not win a gold medal at the Olympics, Germany's Franz Wagner is a smart MVP bet. Among all players remaining in the tournament now that Greece's Giannis Antetokounmpo and Canada's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were eliminated, Wagner is the leading scorer thus far. He also has the third-most steals.

4. Dennis Schröder

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: Germany

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 3

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 10

Odds: +1300

Germany's Dennis Schröder, who was named MVP of the 2023 FIBA World Cup, leads all players in assists during the 2024 Paris Olympics. The guard is also the leading scorer as the ball handler in pick and roll sets, per Synergy.

3. Nikola Jokic

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: Serbia

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 1

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 1

Odds: +1800

Serbia's Nikola Jokic has likely been the best player at the tournament thus far but will have a tough path to the gold medal facing the United States in the semifinals. The NBA's reigning MVP has a double-double in three of the four games he has played and has nearly recorded a triple-double as well. Jokic, perhaps surprisingly, has recorded the second-most steals among all players in the tournament.

2. Victor Wembanyama

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: France

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 7

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 2

Odds: +2200

The NBA's 2024 Rookie of the Year is a sleeper candidate to win MVP at the Olympics. Already the best player for the host nation of France, it's clear that Wembanyama is a defensive star for his team. He leads all players in steals and ranks second-most in blocks, trailing only his teammate Rudy Gobert.

1. Anthony Davis

fiba.basketball
fiba.basketball

Team: United States

Global Rating (via HoopsHype): No. 16

Daily RAPM Estimate (via NBA Couchside): No. 5

Odds: +3500

One player who has an outside chance to win MVP during the 2024 Paris Olympics is Anthony Davis. He is playing efficiently on offense, scoring well when cutting to the basket and as the roll man during ball screens. Davis is also averaging 2.5 assists per game, flashing solid playmaking for his position.

This article originally appeared on For The Win: The 8 most likely Olympic men's basketball MVP candidates (LeBron James!), ranked