OXFORD ― Leading into one of the most anticipated Ole Miss football seasons in recent memory, the bookmakers have set the Rebels' preseason win total at 9.5.

Should they beat that mark, they likely will find themselves in the field for the first 12-team College Football Playoff. Should they fall short, they could find themselves in a second-tier bowl game, wondering where it went wrong.

Which games will be the most influential in deciding whether the Rebels flourish or flop in 2024? Here are five make-or-break games for coach Lane Kiffin's team.

At South Carolina, Oct. 5

With respect to Wake Forest (Sept. 14), which went 4-8 in the ACC last season, the Gamecocks will be the first real road test for Ole Miss. There's a bit of potential symmetry lurking here for the Rebels. The last time they were a preseason top-10 team — as most assume they will be in 2024 — the Rebels managed 248 total yards and lost a 16-10 slugfest in Columbia in 2009.

Ole Miss is better than a South Carolina team that will be replacing Spencer Rattler at quarterback. Significantly so, for that matter. This game will act as an initial barometer as to whether Ole Miss can make that gap show on the road in the SEC.

At LSU, Oct. 12

In 2023, an instant classic win over the Tigers acted as the season's defining moment. The 2024 matchup looks like it could carry similar weight. The Rebels can lose in Baton Rouge and still achieve their stated goal of making the College Football Playoff.

But if they go to Tiger Stadium and win — something they haven't done since 2008 — they would make a national statement and open the path toward SEC title contention. If everything goes as planned for Ole Miss early on, this is the game that will show us what this team is capable of.

Vs. Oklahoma, Oct. 26

The Rebels and their new conference peers have never met in the regular season, with a 27-25 Ole Miss victory in the 1999 Independence Bowl serving as the only historical data point. That novelty will drive intrigue. But even without that context, this has the potential to be a big one. ESPN's SP+ metric rates the Sooners as the No. 15 team in the country heading into the summer.

To get where the Rebels want to go, you have to win your home games against quality opposition, and the Sooners qualify as such.

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Vs. Georgia, Nov. 9

This is the defining game for Ole Miss, with a Georgia team that could be the preseason No. 1 heading to Oxford for the first time since 2016 — coach Kirby Smart's first season in charge of the Bulldogs. The Rebels executed their offseason transfer portal evolution with this game in mind, after Georgia physically overpowered Ole Miss in a 52-17 beatdown in Athens last season.

The Rebels acquired size in the trenches that they hope will give their skill players a better platform to shine in precisely this type of game. Will it work?

Vs. Mississippi State, Nov. 29

On paper, this looks like a game Ole Miss should win handily. It has a more talented roster than the Bulldogs, who are rebuilding under first-year coach Jeff Lebby. But those who are familiar with the Egg Bowl know this game is not played on paper. Given Ole Miss' preseason expectations, it's easy to foresee a scenario where the Rebels need a win on Black Friday to secure their position in the College Football Playoff — or maybe even the SEC title game — with Mississippi State out to play spoiler. It's always a game fraught with tension. Look for that to level up in 2024.

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss football 2024 schedule: 5 defining games for Lane Kiffin