OXFORD ― Ole Miss football coach Lane Kiffin knows he has good players. The roster he's assembled is the best of his tenure, brimming with experienced returnees and SEC experience poached from elsewhere via the transfer portal.

He doesn't know, he's said repeatedly this offseason, whether that will translate into a good team.

"It's a really good roster," Kiffin said on March 19. "But that doesn't mean it's going to be a good team. There's a lot of stuff that has to happen."

Is it coach speak? Yes. Is it grounded in truth? Absolutely.

The list of forces that can make a season spiral ‒ or, for that matter, blast off ‒ is sprawling. The value of hype as a currency becomes zero once the ball is kicked on Aug. 31.

ESPN's SP+ metric ranked the Rebels eighth in the country looking toward 2024, with traditional polls to come this summer.

So how has Ole Miss managed expectations in the past? Here's a look at the outcome for every season the Rebels began ranked in the top 10.

2009 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 8

Final: No. 20

The Rebels ascended as high as No. 4 before dropping two of their first three SEC games to South Carolina and Alabama. Dexter McCluster ran for 1,169 yards and picked up 520 more through the air, but the Ole Miss offense averaged 2.4 turnovers per game. The Rebels finished 9-4 and beat Oklahoma State in the Cotton Bowl.

1970 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 5

Final: T-No. 20

A 4-0 start seemed to validate the preseason ranking before Archie Manning's Rebels were shocked by Southern Miss. Ole Miss lost to Mississippi State and LSU to close out the season before dropping a Gator Bowl matchup to Auburn.

1969 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 9

Final: No. 8

Early losses to Kentucky and Alabama looked likely to derail this season, but Manning's group impressively bounced back to win seven of the last eight games on the schedule, including four wins over teams ranked eighth or higher. Ole Miss beat No. 3 Arkansas in the Sugar Bowl to close the year out 8-3.

1964 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 1

Final: N/R

The only preseason No. 1 ranking in the history of the Ole Miss program didn't end well. The shine came off with a loss to Kentucky in the second week of the season, and the Rebels finished 5-5-1 overall with a loss to Tulsa in the Bluebonnet Bowl.

1963 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 2

Final: No. 7

The Rebels opened their season inauspiciously, failing to beat then-Memphis State for the first time in series history. Those Tigers finished the season unbeaten, and the Rebels went 7-1-2, with their only defeat coming to Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

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1962 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 6

Final: No. 3

Coach John Vaught's Rebels were perfect in 1962, beating their opponents by multiple scores in seven of their 10 games on their way to a conference title. The AP voters preferred unbeaten USC and a two-loss Wisconsin team to the Rebels in the final version of the poll.

1961 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 9

Final: No. 5

Ole Miss rose to the top spot in the polls with a 6-0 start during which Vaught's team allowed just 13 points. The Rebels' national title charge was stopped by LSU in a 10-7 defeat. Ole Miss finished 9-2 after a narrow defeat to Texas in the Cotton Bowl.

1960 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 2

Final: No. 2

The Rebels delivered another unbeaten season in 1961, with the only blemish coming in a 6-6 tie with LSU as Ole Miss claimed its fourth SEC title. The FWAA named the Rebels the national champions, but 8-2 Minnesota got the nod in the AP Poll with one more first-place vote.

1959 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 8

Final: No. 2

The Rebels started 6-0 before a loss at LSU tripped them up, with the Tigers scoring seven of the 21 points Ole Miss allowed all year to beat the Rebels 7-3. Vaught's team avenged the defeat with a 21-0 thumping of the Tigers in the Sugar Bowl to finish with a 10-1 record.

1958 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 6

Final: No. 11

Bobby Franklin quarterbacked the Rebels to a 9-2 season that included a win over Florida in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee and eventual national champion LSU were the only two teams to set Ole Miss back.

1954 Ole Miss football season

Preseason: No. 10

Final: No. 6

The Rebels outperformed the high expectations set for them, winning all five of their SEC games en route to a conference title. Their only nonconference loss of the regular season came on the road against Arkansas. Navy got the best of Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl, too.

David Eckert covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at deckert@gannett.com or reach him on Twitter @davideckert98.

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This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Will Ole Miss football results match the hype? What history says