2024: The year without a right answer in Round 1 of fantasy football drafts
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Hey, let’s check in on the year-to-date production of the consensus first-round picks in fantasy football drafts …
Christian McCaffrey, IR, probably a doomed pick, likely to miss six weeks or more. Gah.
Tyreek Hill, WR17, still great, but his quarterback is injured with no timeline to return.
CeeDee Lamb, WR16, this man’s team just got stomped by the Saints, but we’re otherwise feeling OK.
Breece Hall, RB6, he picked up exactly where he left off last season, though he may have a slight Braelon Allen problem. Good draft choice.
Bijan Robinson, RB16, his team has its flaws and his QB is a little creaky, but he looks great. Nice pick. At some point, a touchdown would be appreciated.
Ja'Marr Chase, WR41, he’s been targeted 11 times in two games and his most impactful play was getting flagged for a 15-yard personal foul.
Justin Jefferson, WR4, everything was going so well until he suffered a quad injury on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR27, he’s had one great game and one disaster game, and is now dealing with a leg injury of an unspecified nature.
Jonathan Taylor, RB23, running well but his QB is the goal-line back and the team isn’t interested in throwing to him.
A.J. Brown, WR32, injured his hamstring in practice last week, wasn’t available on Monday night and he's likely to miss Week 3.
*GASP*
That’s a minefield. Just a genuinely terrible first round. Only one player with an ADP in top-10 is currently among the top-five scorers at his position, and that guy is dealing with an injury. Yikes.
Drafters can feel legitimately good about CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson — who looks like the best player on the field every time he plays — and we should consider Ja’Marr Chase to be a screaming buy-low. Also, if Justin Jefferson has actually avoided serious injury, he’s a winner, too.
But the rest of that round is, um … woof. It’s rough.
Of course, in a season without a clear golden-ticket first rounder, we’re all in a slightly different version of the same raggedy boat. It might just mean 2024 is setting up as a season ruled by sleepers and sneaky waiver gems. If that’s the case, it’s gonna be a big year for the truly obsessive hardcore players among us.
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Now, let's discuss what is working...
Each fantasy season is, in its own way, weird and wild and without precedent. We now find ourselves in a year in which there were no clear right answers in the first round, which is not typically how things work. Even with the chaos, we need to play the hand we’re dealt.
Let’s take a look at the unexpected names currently at the top of the scoring leaderboard at the big three positions, along with one number that explains and underpins their success:
QB1, Baker Mayfield: 73.5 completion percentage — Baker has simply been dealing. He opened the season with a 24-of-30 performance against Washington, then followed with a 12-of-19 effort at Detroit, a game in which he was persistently harassed. Through two games, this is the best version of Mayfield we have yet seen. He’s never completed 65% of his attempts in any season, but he can’t miss these days.
Completion percentage doesn’t tell the full story of a QB's accuracy, of course. Here’s another stat that helps tell the story of Mayfield’s first two games: 7.7 yards after catch per completion. When a quarterback is upper-tier accurate with their ball placement, YAC generally follows. Mayfield is currently beating his previous single-season best in YAC per completion by two full yards. He’s been legitimately terrific.
RB1, Alvin Kamara: 6 rush attempts inside the 10-yard line — Kamara currently leads the NFL in touchdowns (5), four of which have been scored from inside 12 yards. He’s tied for the league lead in carries inside the 10-yard line and he’s second in carries inside the 5 (4). Taysom Hill, it should be noted, has not yet received a carry anywhere in the red zone. For the first time in forever, the Saints are simply feeding the team’s best ball-carrier in goal-to-go situations, and — surprise! — it’s working spectacularly.
WR1, Chris Godwin: 58.2 slot percentage — Godwin actually ran 78.3% of his routes from the slot at Detroit according to PFF, and it was clearly a winning approach. In his best seasons, he operated as Tampa Bay’s primary slot receiver, but he was bumped out wide last year and finished as the overall WR33. It’s no coincidence that he’s finding success again in a familiar role. Also, the Bucs have emphatically demonstrated that slot routes don’t necessarily have to be short-range chain-movers — big plays are possible.
