Nottingham Forest see conspiracies while City hit them with reality check

There is no better way to rally the base than to insist there is an external conspiracy. Everything would be fine if it weren’t for them. We’re being derailed by – delete as appropriate – the Rosicrucians, the Illuminati, the Masons, giant lizards or, most fearsome of all the shadowy string-pullers, the celebrity Luton fans.

Nottingham Forest are threatened with relegation not because they cannot defend set plays, because they do not take their chances or because they bought 34 players over two transfer windows, a splurge that put them in breach of profitability and sustainability regulations and led to them being docked four points. No, they sit a point above the drop zone because of the nefarious forces ranged against them. Who was the referee when Forest beat Luton in the 1959 Cup final? Jack Clough of Bolton. Can it be coincidence that he shares his surname with Forest’s greatest manager? No wonder Luton are out for revenge.

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Forest’s self-pitying social media outburst about refereeing last week poured fuel on a fire ignited by the four-point deduction. Before kick-off, the Premier League anthem was loudly booed by the home crowd, while a banner was raised proclaiming the Premier League is “for the few not the many”. Was this, at last, a fanbase waking from their slumber to attack the outrageous iniquities of the present model of revenue distribution? Of course not.

Gary Neville had spoken out against Forest’s inflammatory post on X, and so was subjected to personal abuse. This wasn’t about broader issues of the economic landscape or the complicity of the football authorities in the takeover of the game by nation states and private equity, but was rooted in narrow self-interest. Of course it was. It always is. Louis Althusser would have called it false consciousness and until fans and owners – it’s certainly not just Forest – can see beyond their own problems and contemplate the vast forces undermining the game, presenting an existential threat to the pyramid, the rich will carry on getting richer at the expense of everybody else.

But why worry about that when all your woes can be explained away by the fact that the self-confessed Luton fan Stuart Attwell was the VAR official last week? Borderline decisions that have gone for Forest this season – the goal Burley had ruled out for Sander Berge’s imperceptible handball, for instance – are ignored in this analysis; or, in some cases, co-opted to the conspiracy theory: what was that but a smokescreen to disguise the way Nick Owen is influencing these decisions?

The thought was that Forest might be galvanised by the sense of outrage, however confected, brought about by not getting a penalty decision against Everton last week – or three penalty decisions, depending how absurd you’re being. (Given a significant contingent of Everton fans think they’re also the victim of conspiracy, this is very confusing but presumably Sean Dyche’s side were the inadvertent beneficiaries of the Premier League’s prevailing pro-Luton agenda; when it comes down to it, maybe we’re all in the pocket of Big Hat. Pre-match rumours that Peter Bankes would be assisted in the VAR room by Cerys Matthews proved sadly unfounded).

And it may be that there was a stiffening of the sinews from Forest. The City Ground tends to be noisy, but on Sunday it audibly seethed, whipped up to protest about everything. The ball squirts out of an early challenge and the throw-in goes to City? Chant about Premier League corruption. Willy Boly crashes into Ederson and the decision is not a penalty? Chant about Premier League corruption. Jack Grealish goes down after taking a knee to the thigh? Chant about Premier League corruption. The shadow of Mick Harford loomed large.

Forest did not play badly. City, once again, did not play particularly well. Forest will think back on three chances in particular that were squandered, two by Chris Wood and one by Murillo, but they repeatedly threatened to get in behind City – the vulnerability that has threatened to undo Pep Guardiola’s side all season – only to be undone by poor touches and poor decision-making.

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For half an hour, City looked distinctly uneasy. But then, with Neco Williams off the pitch receiving treatment, Josko Gvardiol ran off Morgan Gibbs-White and got above Murillo to power in Kevin De Bruyne’s corner. The defender presumably left Gibbs-White’s zone, but then had a run on the Colombian. Who was to blame? Probably the ghost of Eric Morecambe, although it was the 23rd goal Forest have conceded this season from a set play. Until Erling Haaland added the second with 19 minutes remaining, there seemed every chance Forest might find an equaliser as they had in the equivalent fixture last season – when they probably did as well as they did on Sunday.

Which means what? City, unbeaten in 31, seemingly winning as much by habit as anything else, trot on, five wins from another Double. Wolves beat them at Molineux in September and could be awkward but it’s the games in London against Fulham and Tottenham in which they are most likely to drop points.

Forest, meanwhile, despite being entangled in the insidious mesh of the Bedford conspiracy, aren’t playing like a side who are doomed, despite having won only one of their past 10 league games. Their problem is that Burnley aren’t either, and they play them on the final day of the season, when the early suggestion is that the refereeing team will be Jimmy Anderson, Alastair Campbell and John Kettley.