Who will win at the 2020 Golden Globes?

Awards season kicks off in earnest next week, when the 2020 Golden Globes happen on 5 January, 2020.

Netflix’s Marriage Story leads the way in the film space with six nominations in total. With five nods is Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman, and Quentin Tarantino’s Once Upon A Time In Hollywood. Both Joker and The Two Popes have four nominations apiece.

In the TV categories Netflix’s royal drama The Crown has tied with HBO’s Chernobyl and Netflix’s Unbelievable for the most nominations with four each.

Read more: The most incredible actor transformations of 2019

The winners will be announced on Sunday, 5 January (the early hours of Monday, 6 January for us Brits) with Ricky Gervais hosting the 77th Golden Globes.

Here’s who we think will probably win each category.

Best Motion Picture - Drama: The Irishman

Industry experts are predicting a big win for Martin Scorsese’s elegiac gangster epic. He won Best Drama in 2004 for The Aviator, but The Irishman is a different beast altogether, with many critics hailing it as a new classic from the director of Raging Bull and Goodfellas.

Outside chance: Marriage Story

Other nominees: 1917, Joker, The Two Popes

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Whether Quentin Tarantino’s violent Tinseltown love letter can really be considered a comedy is a moot point when it comes to the ludicrously segmented Globes, but it stood a better chance of winning here than in the Drama category (or at the Oscars), so here we are.

Outside chance: Jojo Rabbit

Other nominees: Dolemite is My Name, Knives Out, Rocketman

Best Director - Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

Tarantino and Scorsese will likely duke it out for Best Director, but we think Scorsese will edge his younger rival out to take home the trophy on the night. Although his comments about Marvel provoked much ire online, his thoughtful responses to the outcry proved he had the best intentions of Hollywood at heart, which may rally the voters to his cause.

Read more: Golden Globes 2020 surprises

Outside chance: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Other nominees: Bong Joon-ho, Parasite, Sam Mendes, 1917, Todd Phillips, Joker

Best Actor - Motion Picture Drama - Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

While Todd Phillips’ billion-dollar grossing supervillain movie may prove too controversial to win Best Picture, it’s impossible to overlook Joaquin Phoenix’s incredible transformative performance as Arthur Fleck. The Rise of Skywalker’s Adam Driver has an outside chance here, but his Marriage Story role is much more understated, and the Globes don’t know the meaning of the word.

Outside chance: Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Other nominees: Christian Bale, Ford Vs Ferrari, Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory, Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

Best Actor - Motion Picture Musical or Comedy - Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is looking like one of the closest contests in this year’s Golden Globes. Leonardo DiCaprio, Eddie Murphy, and Taron Egerton have all been tipped for glory, but we think DiCaprio will win by a nose thanks to his turn as fading action star Rick Dalton. The scene where he tears up his trailer after fluffing his lines was one of the year’s most memorable movie moments.

Outside chance: Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name

Other nominees: Daniel Craig, Knives Out, Roman Griffin Davis, Jojo Rabbit, Taron Egerton, Rocketman

Best Actress - Motion Picture Drama - Renée Zellweger, Judy

Hollywood loves sob stories, biopics, and transformational performances, and Renée Zellweger’s turn as Judy Garland hits the trifecta. She’s absolutely sensational portraying the screen icon in her twilight years, which as the final title cards poignantly remind us, came at the tragically early age of 47.

Outside chance: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Other nominees: Cynthia Erivo, Harriet, Saoirse Ronan, Little Women, Charlize Theron, Bombshell

Best Actress - Motion Picture Musical or Comedy - Awkwafina, The Farewell

In another closely fought category, this one could go to any of the fine performances nominated, but we think it will be Awkwafina’s day on 5 January. Her grounded performance in Lula Wang’s comedy drama proved the actress – real name Nora Lum – is more than just a comedic actor.

Outside chance: Ana De Armas, Knives Out

Other nominees: Cate Blanchett, Where'd You Go, Bernadette?, Beanie Feldstein, Booksmart Emma Thompson, Late Night

Best Supporting Actor - Motion Picture - Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Brad Pitt could easily have been nominated for his performance in James Gray’s Ad Astra, but it’s Once Upon A Time In Hollywood that he’ll be rewarded for. Like his character Cliff Booth, Pitt’s role in Tarantino’s film is a supporting one to DiCaprio’s, but an essential one. He’ll have to fight off heavyweights Al Pacino and Joe Pesci who both shone in the crowded cast of The Irishman.

Outside chance: Joe Pesci The Irishman

Other nominees: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighbourhood, Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes, Al Pacino, The Irishman

Best Supporting Actress - Motion Picture - Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

We think J-Lo will win this closely fought category for her star turn in terrific true crime drama Hustlers. It’s been over 20 years since the actress-singer was first nominated for Best Actress in 1997 for Selena. She lost out to Helen Hunt in As Good As It Gets, and we hope she isn’t pipped to the post again by strong category contender Laura Dern for Marriage Story.

Outside chance: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Other nominees: Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell, Annette Bening, The Report, Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Best Screenplay - Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story

Hard one to call, but we think (and hope) Baumbach might just edge out Tarantino here. Both screenplays from the writer-directors come from the heart, but Baumbach’s grounded and original look at a marriage falling apart packs more emotional punch in a more concise running time.

Outside chance: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Other nominees: Bong Joon-Ho and Han Jin Won, Parasite, The Two Popes, Steven Zaillian, Anthony McCarten, The Irishman

Best Original Score - Thomas Newman, 1917

Cousins Randy and Thomas Newman battle it out here, but it’s the latter’s distinctive work on Sam Mendes’ stunning WW1 film that seems to be attracting the most attention. Hildur Guðnadóttir’s Joker score also deserves to win, but it seems to be an outside chance.

Outside chance: Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker

Other nominees: Motherless Brooklyn, Alexandre Desplat, Little Women, Randy Newman, Marriage Story

Best Original Song - 'Into the Unknown', Frozen 2

After the unprecedented success of Let It Go, Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez managed to strike gold once again for the sequel with this stirring Elsa number, and could win the Globe after losing out to U2 in 2013. Elton John and Taron Egerton’s duet from Rocketman could also nab the honour though.

Outside chance: '(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again', Rocketman

Other nominees: 'Beautiful Ghosts', Cats, 'Spirit', The Lion King, 'Stand Up', Harriet

Best Foreign Language Film - Parasite

Bong Joon-Ho’s Parasite is the highest-grossing foreign-language Palme d’Or winner ever in the US, making it the highest-profile contender in this category, and most likely to win. It’ll finally land in UK cinemas on 7 February, 2020.

Outside chance: Pain and Glory

Other nominees: Les Misérables, The Farewell, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Best Animated Feature Film - Toy Story 4

Although we’d love to see Laika’s Missing Link honoured here, it’s likely to be beaten out by one of Disney’s three entrants into this category, most likely by the fourth Toy Story.

Outside chance: Frozen 2

Other nominees: How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World, The Lion King, Missing Link

Best Television Series – Drama - Succession (HBO)

The second season of Jesse Armstrong’s comedy drama was the best show on TV in 2019, so it deserves this gong, however Netflix’s The Crown is also a strong challenger for the... ahem... crown.

Outside chance: The Crown (Netflix)

Other nominees: Big Little Lies (HBO), Killing Eve (BBC America), The Morning Show (Apple TV Plus)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Drama - Olivia Colman (The Crown)

It may be wishful thinking for Olivia Colman to win awards for regal performances two years in a row, but we’d love to see her turn as Queenie rewarded. Clare Foy set the bar high, and Colman showjumped over it with ease. Don’t overlook Hollywood’s adoration of Jennifer Aniston though, despite middling reviews for The Morning Show.

Outside chance: Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show)

Other nominees: Jodie Comer (Killing Eve), Nicole Kidman (Big Little Lies), Reese Witherspoon (The Morning Show)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Drama - Brian Cox (Succession)

Although it would be sweet to see Kit Harington or Rami Malek win for their final seasons in their name-making shows, 2019 belonged to Brian Cox’s imperious performance as Logan Roy. All the others can “f*** off” as his character would say.

Outside chance: Billy Porter (Pose)

Other nominees: Kit Harington (Game of Thrones), Rami Malek (Mr. Robot), Tobias Menzies (The Crown)

Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy - Fleabag (BBC/Amazon)

After cleaning up at the Emmys, expect Phoebe Waller-Bridge’s comedy series to do the same at the Globes, and rightly so. Its second season was a total wonder, ending Fleabag’s story perfectly.

Outside chance: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)

Other nominees: Barry (HBO), The Kominsky Method (Netflix), The Politician (Netflix)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy - Phoebe Waller-Bridge (Fleabag)

Another dead cert here for Fleabag we feel.

Outside chance: Rachel Brosnahan (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel)

Other nominees: Christina Applegate (Dead to Me), Kirsten Dunst (On Becoming a God in Central Florida), Natasha Lyonne (Russian Doll)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy - Bill Hader (Barry)

Hard to call this one, as it’s not the strongest of categories, but our gut instinct (and his Emmy success) tells us Bill Hader will win for the superb second season of his reformed hitman comedy Barry.

Outside chance: Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)

Other nominees: Ben Platt (The Politician), Paul Rudd (Living with Yourself), Ramy Youssef (Ramy)

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television - Chernobyl (HBO)

It would be great if Chernobyl and Unbelievable could share this prize as both true life tales were beautifully realised, featured first rate performances, and left their viewers in tears. HBO’s disaster drama will probably edge it the Netflix miniseries, but it’s going to be close.

Outside chance: Unbelievable (Netflix)

Other nominees: Catch-22 (Hulu), Fosse/Verdon (FX), The Loudest Voice (Showtime)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television - Merritt Wever (Unbelievable)

Another category where it seems a shame that there can’t be multiple winners, but we feel it’s Merritt Wever’s turn to win after several years of being the best up and comer around.

Outside chance: Michelle Williams (Fosse/Verdon)

Other nominees: Kaitlyn Dever (Unbelievable), Joey King (The Act), Helen Mirren (Catherine the Great)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television - Jared Harris (Chernobyl)

Perennial awards favourite Sam Rockwell is likely to be swept aside by Jared Harris for another towering performance as doomed politician-scientist Valery Legasov in the HBO miniseries.

Outside chance: Sam Rockwell (Fosse/Verdon)

Other nominees: Christopher Abbott (Catch-22), Sacha Baron Cohen (The Spy), Russell Crowe (The Loudest Voice)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television - Meryl Streep (Big Little Lies)

Meryl Streep joined the cast of Big Little Lies for its second season and tore up the screen with another powerhouse performance. She deserves to win for that meme-inspiring primal scream dinner scene alone.

Outside chance: Toni Collette (Unbelievable)

Other nominees: Patricia Arquette (The Act), Helena Bonham Carter (The Crown), Emily Watson (Chernobyl)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Series, Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television - Andrew Scott (Fleabag)

We’d love to see Kieran Culkin win here, but it’s impossible to deny the allure of Andrew Scott’s hot priest who will likely to hoover up the votes of the HFPA. Here’s hoping he celebrates his win with a gin in a tin.

Outside chance: Kieran Culkin (Succession)

Other nominees: Alan Arkin (The Kominsky Method), Stellan Skarsgård (Chernobyl), Henry Winkler (Barry)

The 77th Golden Globe Awards will take place on Sunday, 5 January at The Beverly Hilton.