Why expectations for Mississippi State football coach Jeff Lebby's first season should be modest
STARKVILLE — Jeff Lebby emerged from the tunnel at Davis Wade Stadium sporting a maroon rope hat atop his head while donning a shirt reading “Showtime at State.” As he joined the Mississippi State football team running onto the field for the April 20 spring game, he carried with him the start of a new era in Starkville.
That feeling has become a common occurrence for the Bulldogs. Lebby is the fourth head coach at Mississippi State since 2018.
Since Dan Mullen’s nine-year tenure ended in 2017 with his departure for Florida, MSU has struggled to find consistency at the helm. Joe Moorhead was hired as Mullen’s replacement but lasted only two seasons. Mike Leach followed and gave the Bulldogs a sense of stability, but his unexpected death in 2022 led to the promotion of Zach Arnett, who was fired 10 games into his first full season.
Now, it’s Lebby’s turn. As he enters his first season as a head coach after various stints as an offensive coordinator, what are fair expectations for Lebby?
The answer is complicated.
Expectations could be low for Lebby, and the preseason polls likely will reflect that. Since MSU became part of the SEC in 1933, only seven of its 19 coaches have had a winning record in their first year. Coming off a losing season which saw a plethora of players exhausting eligibility or leaving for the transfer portal, it’s reasonable to believe Lebby’s first campaign could be a struggle.
Then there’s the flipside.
Lebby is coaching in an era unlike any other in the sport’s history. Mississippi State saw key players such as quarterback Will Rogers transfer out, but no first-year coach in Starkville has been able to utilize the portal to this degree to address holes.
About two weeks after State ended its season with an Egg Bowl loss, Baylor transfer quarterback Blake Shapen committed to the Bulldogs. Lebby had a veteran starter already locked up to replace Rogers.
Lebby can view his tenure as a retool rather than a rebuild. That could raise expectations.
“I know what the expectations are going to be for myself and the players in the locker room, and that's to be as good as we can possibly be as fast as we can possibly be,” Lebby said at his introductory news conference.
Here’s a look at how Mississippi State’s previous head coaches have fared in their first seasons:
Zach Arnett
Record in first season: 4-6
Tenure: 2022-2023
Mike Leach
Record in first season: 4-7
Tenure: 2020-2022
Joe Moorhead
Record in first season: 8-5
Tenure: 2018-2019
Dan Mullen
Record in first season: 5-7
Tenure: 2009-2017
Sylvester Croom
Record in first season: 3-8
Tenure: 2004-2008
Jackie Sherrill
Record in first season: 7-5
Tenure: 1991-2003
Rockey Felker
Record in first season: 6-5
Tenure: 1986-1990
Emory Bellard
Record in first season: 3-8
Tenure: 1979-1985
Bob Tyler
Record in first season: 4-5-2
Tenure: 1973-1978
Charley Shira
Record in first season: 1-9
Tenure: 1967-1972
Paul Davis
Record in first season: 3-6
Tenure: 1962-1966
Wade Walker
Record in first season: 4-6
Tenure: 1956-1961
Darrell Royal
Record in first season: 6-4
Tenure: 1954-1955
Murray Warmath
Record in first season: 5-4
Tenure: 1952-1953
Slick Morton
Record in first season: 0-8-1
Tenure: 1949-1951
Allyn McKeen
Record in first season: 8-2
Tenure: 1939-1948
Spike Nelson
Record in first season: 4-6
Tenure: 1938
Ralph Sasse
Record in first season: 8-3
Tenure: 1935-1937
Ross McKechnie
Record in first season: 3-6-1
Tenure: 1933-1934
Ray Dauber
Record in first season: 2-6
Tenure: 1931-1932
Chris Cagle
Record in first season: 2-7
Tenure: 1930
J.W. Hancock
Record in first season: 5-3
Tenure: 1927-1929
Bernie Bierman
Record in first season: 3-4-1
Tenure: 1925-1926
Earl Able
Record in first season: 5-2-2
Tenure: 1923-1924
C.R. “Dudy” Noble
Record in first season: 3-4-2
Tenure: 1922
Fred Holtkamp
Record in first season: 5-3
Tenure: 1920-1921
Sid Robinson
Record in first season: 6-1
Tenure: 1917-1919
E.C. Hayes
Record in first season: 6-2
Tenure: 1914-1916
NEW NAME: Trent Hudson transferring from New Mexico State to Mississippi State football
W.D. Chadwick
Record in first season: 5-4
Tenure: 1909-1913
Fred Furman
Record in first season: 6-3
Tenure: 1907-1908
Dan Martin
Record in first season: 3-0-2
Tenure: 1903-1906
L. Gwinn
Record in first season: 1-4-1
Tenure: 1902
L.B Harvey
Record in first season: 2-2-1
Tenure: 1901
J.B. Hildebrand
Record in first season: 0-4
Tenure: 1896
W.M. Matthews
Record in first season: 0-2
Tenure: 1895
Stefan Krajisnik is the Mississippi State beat writer for the Clarion Ledger. Contact him at skrajisnik@gannett.com or follow him on the X platform, formerly known as Twitter, @skrajisnik3.
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Mississippi State football: How 1st-year coaches before Jeff Lebby fared