Memphis basketball missed out on March Madness this year, but the Tigers are already a projected 2025 NCAA Tournament team.

Joe Lunardi, the longtime ESPN bracketologist, published on Tuesday the first of what will be monthly offseason bracket updates. Lunardi lists Penny Hardaway's team − which finished 22-10, missed the Big Dance for the first time since 2021, and is undergoing a major roster rebuild − as a No. 11 seed (versus Ohio State in Providence, Rhode Island) in his first projection since March. He has Memphis pegged as the American Athletic Conference champion, giving them the automatic bid, and made them the only AAC team in the projected field. No other AAC team is even on Lunardi's bubble.

Memphis' non-conference schedule, however, is littered with teams Lunardi expects to reach the NCAA Tournament. The Tigers − whose full non-conference slate has not been finalized − have Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Missouri (at home), road games with UNLV, Clemson and Virginia, a neutral-site date with San Francisco, and will participate in the 2024 Maui Invitational.

Lunardi has Mississippi State slotted in as a No. 8 seed and Mizzou as a No. 11 seed (both as at-large teams). Clemson, which reached the Elite Eight last month, and San Francisco are both play-in teams and 11 seeds. Virginia is listed as the first team out of Lunardi's field and Ole Miss is the third team out.

Every team in the Maui Invitational (Nov. 25-27), except Colorado, is a projected NCAA Tournament team, according to Lunardi. Two-time defending national champion UConn (a No. 3 seed) is an automatic qualifier as Big East champ, while Auburn is also a 3-seed for Lunardi. North Carolina and Iowa State are projected 2-seeds, while Michigan State is a No. 5 seed. Dayton, as the projected Atlantic 10 champ, is forecast as a 7-seed.

While the Maui Invitational bracket has not been set, Memphis will play three games against the field there.

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Memphis is revamping its roster again this offseason. Leading scorer David Jones is weighing whether to return or to begin his professional career. Forward Nicholas Jourdain announced publicly earlier this year that he plans to be back. But they are the only two scholarship players from last season's roster who haven't either entered the transfer portal or moved on due to expired eligibility.

Hardaway already has secured commitments from transfers PJ Haggerty, Dain Dainja and Colby Rogers. Incoming freshman Jared Harris signed with the Tigers in November 2023.

Reach sports writer Jason Munz at jason.munz@commercialappeal.com or follow him @munzly on X, the social media app formerly known as Twitter.

This article originally appeared on Memphis Commercial Appeal: Where Memphis basketball stands in 2025 March Madness bracket update