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Weighing where Jacob Trouba and the Rangers go from here after shaky ending

In Jacob Trouba's eyes, the Rangers aren't playing any more, not because of anything they're lacking, but because winning a Stanley Cup is hard and sometimes the breaks just don't go your way.

"I don’t think you look at it as a player or something that was not there," he said last week after cleaning out his locker at the MSG Training Center in Tarrytown. "It just didn’t happen. Next year is a new year. Things change. There’s going to be new faces. Every team is different every year, but I don’t think we look at our group and feel that we’re missing something that wasn’t there."

The real question is whether team president Chris Drury sees it the same way.

A vocal portion of the fan base has been making their opinions known since the Blueshirts were eliminated by the Florida Panthers earlier this month, with much of their ire directed at the embattled captain. He was at the center of some glaring defensive blunders late in the season and in the playoffs, resulting in his demotion to the bottom pair and ascension as the team's No. 1 internet punching bag.

The downward spiral was most evident after Trouba returned from a lower-body injury that cost him 11 games in March, which he revealed last week was a broken ankle.

"It’s not an excuse or anything by any means," he noted. "I was ready to play, but it was an interesting one to play with."

May 22, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba (8) controls the puck against the Florida Panthers during the third period of game one of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden.
May 22, 2024; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba (8) controls the puck against the Florida Panthers during the third period of game one of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Madison Square Garden.

The Rangers have been adamant in their defense of Trouba and his late-season slippage, pointing to his on-ice physicality and off-ice leadership as redeeming qualities. He remains an important voice in the locker room and respected presence in the organization, as well as a player opponents continue to fear as one of the NHL's biggest hitters.

"Jacob has been an excellent captain and leader for us," Drury said. "He comes to play hard every single night."

No one can dispute that, but some of the other negative trends − costly D-zone mistakes, diminishing foot speed, and being on the ice for an unbalanced amount of goals against − were already revealing themselves prior to the injury. And for a salary cap-strapped team like New York, paying an average annual value of $8 million for a defenseman who's likely to start next season in a reduced role is far from ideal.

Adding a layer of intrigue is the fact that Trouba's no-movement clause will switch to a partial NMC on July 1, when he'll be required to submit a 15-team no-trade list. That will leave 16 other teams the Rangers can do business with, but finding a willing partner may be easier said than done.

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Let's examine Drury's options and what we're hearing about what could come next:

Trade him

In a perfect world, there are reasons to believe a trade would be Drury's preference.

It's not that the man in charge doesn't value Trouba's contributions. He was the driving force behind making him the 28th captain in franchise history and has been seeking more of the physicality No. 8 brings, not less.

But the reality of Drury's position is that difficult decisions need to be made in the ongoing pursuit of a Cup − "Everything is on the table," he said on Friday's Zoom call with reporters − and Trouba's $8 million could be better allocated elsewhere.

SUNRISE, FLORIDA - JUNE 01: Sam Reinhart #13 of the Florida Panthers shakes hands with Jacob Trouba #8 of the New York Rangers after Game Six of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on June 01, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.
SUNRISE, FLORIDA - JUNE 01: Sam Reinhart #13 of the Florida Panthers shakes hands with Jacob Trouba #8 of the New York Rangers after Game Six of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on June 01, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.

The Rangers' offseason wish list includes a top-line right winger, a two-way center to provide depth in case of future injury complications with Filip Chytil, a mobile, puck-moving defenseman and an infusion of playoff tenacity in their bottom six. They simply won't be able to check all those boxes unless they shed salary, and there is no more obvious candidate to clear that kind of space than Trouba.

Opposing teams are averaging 2.85 goals per 60 minutes while he's on the ice at five-on-five the past two seasons, which Natural Stat Trick ranks as worst among all Blueshirts' defensemen in that span, while his average of 12.31 high-danger scoring chances per 60 ranks last among those who appeared in at least 50 games.

It's fair to point out that many of those minutes came against top forwards, with Trouba routinely handed the toughest matchups while paired with usual partner, K'Andre Miller. But it's also undeniable that the Rangers give up more goals and quality looks while he's on the ice.

He's getting beat with increasing frequently and coughing the puck up at inopportune moments, as we saw several times in the last couple months. And when he has to make up for those miscues, it can result in desperate lunges and dangerous elbows, like the one he caught Panthers forward Evan Rodrigues with in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Final.

That was especially true as the competition got stiffer on this year's playoff run, with Trouba on ice for 17 of the 35 goals New York allowed in the final two rounds against Carolina and Florida while leading the league with 11 penalties.

"It was fine," he said when asked to assess his performance in the playoffs. "Obviously, there’s ups and downs throughout the postseason. I thought at times it was great; at times mistakes are made. That happens."

While Trouba sputtered, Braden Schneider was on the ascent.

The 22-year-old moved up into the spot next to Miller and looked ready for the challenge, bolstering his case to remain ahead of Trouba on the right-handed D depth chart next season. And while the captain could certainly benefit from a less-demanding role spent mostly defending bottom-six forwards, it may not be a luxury the Rangers can afford.

Offloading Trouba's $8 million AAV for the final two years of his contract is a practical move they should at least be exploring, but finding an eager taker who isn't on the incoming no-trade list may prove difficult.

It's not that there aren't teams who value Trouba's combination of size, strength and high character. General managers still love big defenseman who can hit, but the large cap hit will be a sticking point in negotiations.

Convincing another team to eat all $8 million might require Drury to attach another asset in the deal, perhaps a draft pick or prospect. Otherwise, the Rangers may be asked to retain 50% of his salary.

The belief is they'll be reluctant to do either of those things, throwing cold water on the many trade theories fans have been bandying about.

Buy him out

The early sense is that the Rangers don't have much of an appetite to go down the buyout road, either.

Doing so would save $4 million each of the next two seasons, but it would also leave them on the hook for $4 million of dead cap in 2024-25 and 2025-26, then $2 million in 2026-27 and 2027-28, according to CapFriendly.

For starters, they're not that desperate. Trouba has enough supporters left in the organization that keeping him as an expensive bottom-pair guy is viewed as more palatable than paying him to go away. This isn't a Tony DeAngelo situation.

There's also the fact that Drury has yet to execute a buyout in three years since taking over as president and GM. No one wants dead money on their cap, and he seems especially averse to it.

If he was willing to keep half of Trouba's salary on his books, it's more likely he would offer to do so in a trade before buying him out. That's why this ranks last of the three options.

Keep him

Unless an unexpectedly enthusiastic trade partner emerges, this is the most probable scenario: Keep an important locker-room leader in place knowing he's going to maintain a certain level of physicality in the lineup and give it everything he has to bounce back.

There's no question about Trouba's commitment and toughness, as evidenced by 7.49 blocked shots per 60, which ranked eighth in the NHL among players who appeared in at least 50 games this season, and his willingness to play through pain.

He described the Mar. 4 injury as "a kidney-bean sized chunk of my ankle (that) came off," and while he said it didn't hurt to walk, skating proved to be more of a challenge.

"You feel fine, but then you put a skate on and you start pushing at different angles, and it does not feel good," Trouba said. "That was tough because you feel fine, you want to be out there, but you’re definitely limited by that. It got better as it went on."

The 6-foot-3, 209-pounder was adamant about his ability to play through it, especially once the playoffs rolled around, but the ensuing drop-off is impossible to dismiss.

Trouba had been on ice for an average of 2.64 goals against per 60 in 60 games prior to the broken ankle, which isn't great but represented a notable improvement from the 2.92 GA/60 he posted the season prior. That ballooned to 3.6 in nine regular-season games after returning, with those struggles dragging into the playoffs.

The injury doesn't explain it all away, but it's certainly a factor in the evaluation.

"I thought that he came back and did an excellent job," said head coach Peter Laviolette, another one of Trouba's staunch defenders. "He plays the game a certain way. He brings physicality and plays heavy minutes for us. When players come back from an injury, I think it takes a minute, and some injuries even more so. I’ve mentioned that with other players, whether it be Kaapo (Kakko) or (Adam) Fox or whoever it might be. And, so, there's a period to get back up the speed, and he was working to do that. But I thought he came in, and his minutes were physical, impactful minutes."

How impactful Trouba will be moving forward is a legitimate concern, but there's reasonable hope that a fully healthy captain won't be as much of a liability as the version we saw in April and May. Odds are, the Rangers will be banking on it.

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Where do Jacob Trouba and the Rangers go from here after shaky ending?