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Analyzing what Igor Shesterkin's next contract could look like after stellar playoffs

In a scene filled with Rangers dropping to one knee and staring blankly ahead as the Florida Panthers celebrated their second consecutive Eastern Conference championship, one camera caught an embrace that will live on as one of the season's lasting images.

The clip showed Vincent Trocheck whispering in Igor Shesterkin's ear, with a hug and a few encouraging pats on the helmet that symbolized how all fans felt toward the goalie following his standout performance in the face of defeat.

"It was a pretty empty feeling," Trocheck recalled last week as the Rangers met to clean out their lockers and conduct exit interviews. "We're playing this late in the season, to come up short, it sucks. It's not fun. But Shesty, he was our best player by a significant margin in the playoffs. If there was one guy that I thought needed to hear that right after the loss to kind of keep his spirits up... I just told him he was our best player and he deserved better."

That sting will linger well into an offseason filled with questions about how the Rangers can build a better team in front of Shesterkin, but the playoffs served as further evidence that they have the right guy between the pipes.

The 28-year-old posted a .927 save percentage across 16 starts, including a .935 in six games against the mighty Panthers. The Blueshirts were outshot in 13 of those 16 games, yet their goalie withstood that constant pressure while posting an NHL-best 15.62 goals saved above expected, according to Evolving Hockey.

"We’re not even in this position without him," captain Jacob Trouba said. "I don't think anybody in this room thinks otherwise."

SUNRISE, FLORIDA - MAY 26: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers takes a break during the game against the Florida Panthers during the second period in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on May 26, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.
SUNRISE, FLORIDA - MAY 26: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers takes a break during the game against the Florida Panthers during the second period in Game Three of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on May 26, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.

This wasn't a one-time heater, either.

Trocheck called Shesterkin "the best goaltender in the world," and while others could have staked that claim during the regular season − most notably expected Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck − it's hard to argue there's anyone you'd rather have in crunch time.

The 6-foot-1, 197-pounder has been outstanding each of the last three postseasons, showing an innate ability to raise his game when the stakes are highest with a .928 SV% across 44 career playoff appearances. He can be too hard on himself at times, as we saw during a midseason slump that lingered into the all-star break, but that high standard is also what drives him to be great.

"I just know I could make another save," Shesterkin said. "I really enjoyed this playoff, but I still think I can play better. Sometimes I give up easy goals, so I will work on myself and I will get stronger for next season."

For all the talk about where the Rangers need to improve, they'll always have a chance when a motivated No. 31 is in net. And now it's time for them to decide how much they value that kind of security blanket.

Chris Drury: Rangers GM addresses questions about key offseason decisions

Contract possibilities and leverage

With a year left on the bargain four-year, $22.667 million contract Shesterkin signed in 2021, team president Chris Drury doesn't technically have to make that decision yet. But putting off negotiations until next summer feels like an unpalatable risk given the 2022 Vezina Trophy winner's importance to the franchise.

Shesterkin is just over a year away from becoming an unrestricted free agent, which would allow him to test the market and sign anywhere of his choosing. The Rangers simply can't afford to lose him, nor can they afford to get into a bidding war considering their ongoing salary cap crunch.

Paying the 2014 fourth-round-pick-turned-star now might help keep the price down a little bit, but that certainly doesn't mean he's going to come cheap. The belief among multiple league sources who spoke to lohud.com, part of the USA TODAY Network, is that Shesterkin's next deal will set a new record for goaltenders.

The one to surpass is the eight-year, $84 million contract that Carey Price signed with the Montreal Canadiens in 2018, which carries an average annual value of $10.5 million. The expectation is that figure will be the floor in the Shesterkin negotiations, with the ceiling as high as $12 million.

SUNRISE, FLORIDA - JUNE 01: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers saves the puck in front of Matthew Tkachuk #19 of the Florida Panthers during the second period in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on June 01, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.
SUNRISE, FLORIDA - JUNE 01: Igor Shesterkin #31 of the New York Rangers saves the puck in front of Matthew Tkachuk #19 of the Florida Panthers during the second period in Game Six of the Eastern Conference Final of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Amerant Bank Arena on June 01, 2024 in Sunrise, Florida.

The two sides will likely land somewhere in the middle, with the Rangers appealing to the Russian's desire to win in their pitch to keep the AAV as close to $10.5 million as possible.

Any extension would kick in for the 2025-26 season, when the NHL's salary cap is supposed to rise to around $92 million. The Blueshirts can loosely project 11 current players under contract that season, assuming at least two of a prospect group including Brett Berard, Brennan Othmann, Gabe Perreault and Adam Sýkora are on the roster by then, with the combined cap charge totaling around $60 million. That leaves about $32 million to fill final 11-12 spots, with that money drying up fairly quick once you start doing the math.

The most high-profile players who will require new contracts next summer are Alexis Lafrenière and K'Andre Miller, who are both lining themselves up for sizable raises, which will come after sorting through this year's crop of restricted free agents that's headlined by Kaapo Kakko, Ryan Lindgren and Braden Schneider. If Shesterkin was being paid $12 million annually, the Rangers would be left with about $20 million to squeeze all those deals in, plus any other players they bring in between now and then.

Keeping the band together will almost surely require sacrifices along the way, and if Shesterkin cares about that as much as it seems like he does − "I have amazing players in front of me," he said in an oft-repeated line − then he may need to settle for inching past Price's high mark, as opposed to blowing it out of the water.

It's not exactly a fair ask, with every player entitled to demand every cent of their worth. But it's the reality of life in the NHL following three straight years of a flat cap.

Then again, relief is on the horizon. Shesterkin and his agent, Maxim Moliver, could counter by pointing out that the 2025-26 season will be the last year of expensive deals for Artemi Panarin and Jacob Trouba. If Drury can find a way to get through that season on a tight budget, nearly $20 million in additional cap space will free up in 2026-27 after those two contracts expire.

All of those variables add to the intrigue of these negotiations, but the Rangers have ample reason to try and get this done before Shesterkin becomes a UFA next summer. If they fumble, it could cost them the player most capable of ending the franchise's 30-year championship.

Whether the goalie himself is feeling the same pressure is less clear. He seemed well aware that he has all the leverage while conveniently dodging a question about what's next on breakup day.

"Sorry, I don’t speak English," he quipped before flashing a smirk that very much contradicted that statement.

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Read more of his work at lohud.com/sports/rangers/ and follow him on Twitter @vzmercogliano.

This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Analyzing what Igor Shesterkin's next contract could look like