UNC basketball, the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament’s West Region, continues its March Madness run on Saturday (5:30 p.m., CBS) against ninth-seeded Michigan State.

The Tar Heels (28-7) and the Spartans (20-14) play at Spectrum Center for a spot in the Sweet 16, which will be in Los Angeles. UNC earned a 28-point win against Wagner on Thursday and Michigan State beat Mississippi State by 18.

UNC is 12-4 against Michigan State, including 5-0 in the NCAA Tournament. The last time the programs met in the Big Dance, the Tar Heels earned an 89-72 win in the 2009 national championship game.

Here are some things to know and a score prediction for UNC’s second-round game of the 2024 NCAA Tournament.

RJ Davis, UNC basketball’s offense vs Michigan State’s defense

The Tar Heels and Spartans are top-10 in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom.com, but UNC’s offense — led by senior guard RJ Davis — has a top-25 offense and Michigan State is 51st. The Heels are 4-0 against teams with a top-25 defensive efficiency this season, and the Spartans are 2-9 against squads with a top-25 offense. Davis is averaging 25.6 points in the last three games, so UNC has a definite advantage when it comes to getting buckets.

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Will the Spartans slow down Tar Heels’ Armando Bacot?

Armando Bacot continues to shine in the NCAA Tournament. Through eight March Madness games in his career, Bacot is averaging 15.8 points and 14.7 rebounds. This season, UNC is 14-4 when Bacot logs a double-double performance. If that continues, the Heels will likely be in Los Angeles next week.

UNC has to locate Michigan State’s Tyson Walker

Michigan State isn’t known for its offense, but Tyson Walker is an electric guard capable of carrying the Spartans on that end of the court. The senior, who had 19 points against Mississippi State, has knocked down at least three 3-pointers in three of the last four games. If he gets going early against the Heels, Sparty can pull off the upset.

UNC vs Michigan State prediction in March Madness

UNC 74, Michigan State 68: It’s tough to bet against Michigan State coach Tom Izzo in March, but the Tar Heels have owned the series. In a physical, low-scoring game, UNC will have enough scoring options to get to the Sweet 16.

Staff writer Rodd Baxley can be reached rbaxley@fayobserver.com or @RoddBaxley on X/Twitter. 

This article originally appeared on The Fayetteville Observer: UNC vs. Michigan State prediction: March Madness, NCAA pick is in