UFC 309 predictions, odds, expert picks: Can Stipe Miocic actually beat Jon Jones?
There's nothing quite like the end of the UFC calendar year. Big events in Abu Dhabi and New York City have become annual staples for the promotion, and UFC 309 gets the honor of filling the Madison Square Garden slot when Jon Jones puts his heavyweight title on the line Saturday night.
After more than a decade of speculation about how Jones would fair in the land of giants, the all-time great light heavyweight took on the challenge in 2023. Jones needed just over two minutes to capture the vacant title with a guillotine choke of Ciryl Gane. The fight's speed left the world with several questions and few answers. Title defense No. 1 was supposed to happen in November 2023, until Jones suffered a torn pectoral muscle ahead of his fight with former two-time champion Stipe Miocic.
Fast forward to now and the matchup between legends is rebooked and set to conclude, allowing the heavyweight division to hopefully move on.
In the co-main event, we get a rematch of one of the most thrilling lightweight title fights in recent memory as the former champion Charles Oliveira looks to secure a second victory over Michael Chandler.
As usual, this UFC showcase in the "Big Apple" will leave us talking one way or another on Sunday morning.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
265lbs.: (C) JonJones (-650) vs. Stipe Miocic (+450)
It's the fight nobody but Dana White and the two men involved wanted.
Much can be said about this "undisputed heavyweight title bout," how we got to it, and the comments made in the build-up. To avoid going on a 30-minute rant, we'll leave the obvious at the door and say the interim champion Tom Aspinall is the one who should be challenging Jones.
It's been 43 months since Miocic stepped foot in the Octagon. Unfortunately for the all-time great heavyweight, he suffered a brutal knockout loss at the hands of Francis Ngannou in their rematch that night at UFC 260.
The inactivity of the now 42-year-old Miocic presents tons of unknowns in this Jones matchup. However, it's fair to say that in the Ngannou rematch, it was more that "The Predator" had one of the single greatest performances we've ever seen rather than Miocic looking bad. Ngannou was "him" that night and not even Thanos himself could have come out victorious.
Miocic has been an underrated and underestimated force for almost all of his 24-fight career (20-4). One of the more agile heavyweights historically, with sneaky sharp boxing and vicious knockout power, Miocic enjoys a punch-heavy brawl but can wrestle when needed. Submissions have been an afterthought offensively and defensively, with all of his stoppages ending by knockout (15). Regarding his takedown ratio, Miocic has out-landed his UFC opponents 25 to five collectively. All five takedowns on him came from separate opponents.
On the tail-end of his career, Jones is arguably more intriguing than ever in and out of the Octagon. He could easily be labeled as the most creative competitor MMA has had. Jones, 37, historically fights to his opponent's strengths, which has largely made him so impressive. His game plan is the opponent's game plan. Still untested, that would not be the wise path to victory for Jones against Miocic, as he's never been a knockout artist or heavy hitter and admits it.
Jones' first heavyweight appearance against Gane essentially told us only one thing, and it's something we already knew. If Jones isn't comfortable, he'll abandon fighting how his opponents do and fight "smart," exposing their weaknesses. "Bones" admitted he didn't quite feel right in the matchup with the French striking sensation and took the action to the ground immediately. A guillotine presented itself and that was that.
In Jones' most controversial wins against Alexander Gustafsson (first fight) and Dominick Reyes, the champion realized he was losing the striking midway through and mixed in threats of his far superior wrestling. While it might not have worked to produce a rightful victory in some viewers' minds, it was championship resolve on full display.
Miocic isn't the biggest, baddest, and most difficult heavyweight Jones could face. At his best, he's indeed a tough matchup and held off equally as dangerous wrestlers like Daniel Cormier (twice) in the past. Cleveland's finest can have moments of success in this fight and will if Jones engages in a boxing match.
Oblique kicks, elbows, spinning attacks, you name it. Ultimately, as Jones always does, he has too many tools in his toolbox.
Each's layoff time should cancel out here, and after a compelling, methodical first round from both men, Jones will find a strong position on the ground in Round 2, finishing Miocic with strikes. You bet your bottom dollar he'll even include a 12-to-6 elbow or two if he can.
Pick: Jones
155lbs.: Charles Oliveira (-250) vs. Michael Chandler (+200)
Chandler, 38, enters his Oliveira rematch in a similar position to Miocic. Coming off a tough loss without fighting in more than two years, a win would put the former three-time Bellator champion back in title contention.
Oliveira, 35, has gone 1-1 to rebound from his Islam Makhachev title loss since Chandler last fought. In those outings, "Do Bronx" impressed with a big first-round stoppage of Beneil Dariush before a closely contested split decision loss against the next title challenger Arman Tsarukyan at UFC 300. The activity and results from that Brazilian legend should give any Chandler backer pause, because he's still as good as it gets and arguably deserved the nod over Tsarukyan. Things weren't trending in Tsarukyan's favor had they fought two more rounds.
Chandler exceeded expectations when he first battled Oliveira. The ever-talented wrestler has displayed incredible punching power throughout his 31-fight career (23-8), and Oliveira felt it plenty. However, Chandler's willingness to be exciting has been his downfall in the UFC, as he's abandoned the inclusion of his strong ground game.
"Iron" has indicated how much he's learned and grown as a fighter in his injury-free absence from active competition. Chandler nullified Oliveira's incredible submission threats in their first encounter and he'll need to do so again. Even before Oliveira, Chandler had shown phenomenal handling of BJJ wizards like Goiti Yamauchi, Brent Primus, and Benson Henderson in Bellator.
Oliveira has proven smotherable on the ground to prevent his submission attacks, as seen from Makhachev and Tsarukyan most recently. Unfortunately for Chandler, a new degree of caution could be his downfall. Oliveira dove into the grappling department with a surprise early shot in the pair's first fight. Chandler will look to win that chess match within the fight, giving Oliveira early opportunities to snatch his neck or a limb.
I struggle to see this rematch being as fun and wild as the first fight, but it will be great for as long as it lasts, and likely more technical. The former UFC champ still holds the edge with his overall versatility. Oliveira will remain undefeated in rematches.
Pick: Oliveira
185lbs.: Bo Nickal (-1100) vs. Paul Craig (+700)
The Bo Nickal show has arrived in MSG.
Nickal, 28, is once again the oddsmakers' darling as he prepares to head into his fourth Octagon appearance as a monster favorite. Despite having his toughest test yet in the experienced veteran Paul Craig, Nickal believes the odds should be even wider than they are.
It's no secret what these two are best at. Nickal is one of the most talented collegiate wrestlers to ever enter MMA, while Craig is a sneaky submission specialist, dangerous in any second of a fight. Unfortunately for Craig, every aspect outside of experience and submission ability goes in Nickal's favor.
Cody Brundage might have given those high on Nickal some pause in the prospect's last time out. A solid wrestler in his own right, Brundage did well in Round 1 against Nickal until he ultimately succumbed to a second-round rear-naked choke.
Craig, 36, has been submitted twice in his 26-fight career (17-8-1) and Nickal can add a third. However, Craig's biggest weakness is his chin accompanied by takedown defense, or lack thereof. In most cases, Craig is glad to work from his back, anyway. Therefore, it's hard to imagine this fight looking anything like Nickal's showing against Brundage.
Nickal has shown some incredible progression with his striking only six fights into his career and has the power to boot. Whether on the feet or the ground, Nickal will touch Craig's chin and it won't take long until it crumbles. This is essentially Nickal's version of Khamzat Chimaev's Gerald Meerschaert fight.
Pick: Nickal
125lbs.: Viviane Araujo (+220) vs. Karine Silva (-275)
The flyweight division can finally move on from the Valentina Shevchenko vs. Alexa Grasso trilogy.
I had very high hopes for Viviane Araujo (12-6) when she entered the UFC. The 37-year-old Brazilian striker was a strawweight prospect who came in on short notice to knock out future Invicta FC bantamweight champion Talita Bernardo in one of the greatest UFC debuts ever. She has scored some good notable wins since and has been a perennial top-10 contender, but the ceiling became apparent when she couldn't get over cardio issues or opponents matched her speed.
In Karine Silva, we have one of the most well-rounded finishers in the sport right now, accruing 17 of her 18 career wins (18-4) via nine knockouts and eight submissions. The 30-year-old Silva has shown a very high fight IQ at flyweight and brought brilliant game plans to her opponents, exploiting her path to victory wherever it comes.
Against Araujo, Silva may give up the first round, as it's Silva's best and most dangerous, but down the stretch, her pressure and grappling will overwhelm and slow the pace down. Silva is a future top-three flyweight and this is just another step toward the inevitable.
Pick: Silva
165lbs.: Mauricio Ruffy (-900) vs. James Llontop (+600)
Mauricio Ruffy is getting the showcase opportunity of a lifetime to open an MSG main card. On the other side, James Llontop has yet to earn his first UFC win and looks to rebound off a two-fight skid.
Llontop hasn't been shy about engaging in wars, fighting to a split decision loss against the always absurd Viacheslav Borsshchev in his last time out. Before that, Llontop fell short against Chris Padilla via a first-round rear-naked choke.
Ruffy has been nonstop action throughout his 11-fight career with all fights ending via strikes. Debuting at UFC 301 in Brazil this past May, Ruffy made waves with a sensational stoppage of the ever-durable Jamie Mullarkey. A flying knee started the closing sequence, allowing Ruffy to follow with patient and powerful punches that the Aussie couldn't take.
Matt Brown's self-descriptive adage of "controlled chaos" fits Ruffy well. The lightweights will throw down early and Ruffy will get the better of the exchanges, eventually handing Llontop the first knockout loss of his career.
Pick: Ruffy
Preliminary notes
There aren't any high-stakes affairs on the prelims of UFC 309, but there should be some chaotic clashes.
Marcus McGhee's matchup with Jonathan Martinez will be a significant and a rightful step up in the loaded bantamweight division. Jim Miller and Damon Jackson know how to deliver car crashes no matter the opponent. Eryk Anders vs. Chris Weidman could be a double retirement. Mickey Gall is back in the UFC.
I'm also looking forward to our flyweight opener. Veronica Hardy has gained solid momentum with three straight wins and Eduarda Moura can spoil that after her first loss to Denise Gomes this past June.
If there was only one we could highlight, it's the bantamweight bout leading into the main card. McGhee is always a treat, so don't miss it.
Quick picks:
Jonathan Martinez (+120) def. Marcus McGhee (-145)
Eryk Anders (-115) def. Chris Weidman (-105)
Jim Miller (+135) def. Damon Jackson (-165)
David Onama (-1000) def. Roberto Romero (+625)
Marcin Tybura (-145) def. Jhonata Diniz (+120)
Ramiz Brahimaj (+115) def. Mickey Gall (-140)
Oban Elliot (-250) def. Bassil Hafez (+200)
Veronica Hardy (-150) def. Eduarda Moura (+125)
