The Fantasy Baseball Buzz: We knew the Braves would be good — but did you see the Brewers coming?
Let's establish one thing up front. For all the ink spilled on the glittery Dodgers, for as much fun as the defending-champ Rangers are, for all the young talent bouncing around in Baltimore, for all the established stars hanging their hats in Houston, the best offense in baseball is still the Braves. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
And imagine what could happen once Ronald Acuña Jr. really gets going.
First, a nod to the stat sheet. Atlanta's offense currently ranks first in a slew of things. All the slash stats, for starters (.302/.366/.491), and OPS (that's how addition works). Runs per game, a juicy 6.44 per start. There's been some good luck baked in there, as the Braves have a team .367 BABIP. Yep, that's first too. But these guys can wreck your ERA.
The Braves have five hitters ranked in the top 100 of 5x5 leagues: Marcell Ozuna (a draft-day steal, he's currently the No. 2 hitter in banked value), Ozzie Albies, Acuña, Austin Riley and Matt Olson. Michael Harris isn't off to a bad start, either, though he's just outside the top 100. Harris is probably the buy-low target on this roster.
If you're going to nitpick, you might start with Acuna, who doesn't have a homer yet. That said, he's running plenty (eight bags) and crossing home plate plenty (16 runs). His early sliders on Baseball Savant are pedestrian by his standards, but there's no reactionary move to make with him.
Albies is also a buzzkill for the moment, as he hit the IL this week with a toe injury. But it's not going to require surgery, and Albies might be back in 2-3 weeks. Injury optimism generally isn't my jam, but this sounds like a short-term setback.
If you want a path to this juggernaut offense, Orlando Arcia (24% rostered) and Jarred Kelenic (32% rostered) are your two options. Arcia is never going to be a star, but he hit a credible .264 last year with 17 homers in 139 games. His average should be around the league median, and he'll probably conk double-digit homers again. He's playable.
Kelenic's upside is still interesting, albeit he's stuck in a strong-side platoon at the moment. The Braves don't mess around with this; when the opponent starts a lefty, Kelenic sits and Adam Duvall grabs a bat. The good news is that Kelenic is crushing right-handers when he does play: .412/.474/.500.
Of course, there's also a con side to Kelenic. He's yet to hit a home run. His Statcast data doesn't buy the hot start: his expected average is a mere .276, and he's still carrying mediocre plate-discipline stats. He's yet to steal a base. And the Braves keep Kelenic tucked in the bottom third of the order; it's hard to see that changing this year, given the depth of the roster.
Alas, maybe the most actionable thing with the Atlanta offense is how we manage against it. I won't allow any non-elite pitcher to start against these guys. Sure, Hunter Brown was fine Tuesday, but that's not how I'm going to roll. Too many crooked numbers in Cobb County.
You wouldn't win any bar bets with the Braves leading the majors in runs. But you might drink for free if you posited your friends on baseball's No. 2 offense through the early weeks. The Brewers currently rank second in most key categories: runs per game, average, OBP, slugging. The Brewers also slot third in stolen bases (23), and they've been caught just four times. This has been a surprisingly fun team.
Like Atlanta with Albies, Milwaukee just lost one of its stars: Christian Yelich. He has a lower back strain, though he might be back in a week. But the Brew Crew has plenty of exciting hitters to focus on while Yelich recovers.
William Contreras is off to a monster start (.375-16-4-17-1), the No. 3 hitter in 5x5 value. This looks like a career year at age 26. He's an excellent defender, too. This is why we try to be patient when drafting fantasy catchers.
Brice Turang was an early hit off the waiver wire — you need to attack the wire early in any fresh season — stealing eight quick bases and hitting a tidy .327. Willy Adames is healthy again and erasing last year's bad vibes. He's at .302 with three homers. Jackson Chourio's only hitting .241, but category juice (three homers, three steals) always pays the fantasy bills. Rhys Hoskins has three homers in his comeback season.
It's a good thing the Crew is piling up the runs, because the pitching staff is a concern. Freddy Peralta is a monster, but the rest of the rotation is streamer consideration at best. Both of the presumptive temporary closers (Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps) have ERAs over 5. The team is still hoping Devin Williams can return around the All-Star break; he has two stress fractures in his back.
If you must make a pickup from this staff, Colin Rea (7% rostered) makes the most sense. He's been solid in all three turns (2.70/1.20), and he's been a solid source of ratio since joining the Brewers. The NL Central has some soft landings; I'm not afraid of the Cardinals this weekend. That all said, the under-the-hood on Rea isn't as fun. His FIP currently slots at 4.21.
Leadoff man Sal Frelick could be worth a look when you're caught short on a midweek schedule. He doesn't offer much power, but he's scored 11 runs, stolen three bases and has a solid .397 OBP. You love a frontman tied to a strong offense. And nothing wrong with chasing a little volume, too.
